Kyle Finnegan set to take over the ninth for Washington

July 17, 2023

Washington Nationals — As we alerted you Sunday night, Hunter Harvey has a sore right triceps and is very likely to be placed on the IL today. This opens up the door for Kyle Finnegan to resume the closer role, and probably eliminates any chance that the oft-injured Harvey is traded this season. 

Updated hierarchy: Finnegan | Thompson | Weems.

Los Angeles Angels — Chris Devenski was placed on the IL with a hamstring injury, but his place should be filled by Matt Moore, who returned from the IL this weekend. 

Updated hierarchy: Estevez | Moore | Soriano.

Toronto Blue Jays — Jordan Romano was still out, resting his ailing back, which left Sunday’s save for Erik Swanson. Romano and the Blue Jays expect the closer to be available for Tuesday.

Hierarchy remains: Romano | Swanson | Garcia.

Arizona Diamondbacks — Entering with a one-run deficit in the eighth, closer Scott McGough gave up four runs and four hits to give the Blue Jays vital breathing room in an eventual 7-5 victory over Arizona. McGough has really struggled over his last seven appearances (8 IP, 21 baserunners, 9 ER), and we could see a return to a committee approach involving Andrew Chafin and/or Miguel Castro.

Hierarchy remains: McGough | Chafin | Castro.

Baltimore Orioles — The Orioles turned to Eduard Bazardo to protect a five-run lead on Sunday, but he gave up three quick hits against only one out. Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano had each pitched in two straight, and Bryan Baker finished the eighth with a man on, so Danny Coulombe entered to finish things off. Coulombe let two more runs in, but ultimately retired Luis Arraez on a sharp line drive to earn his first save of the season.

Hierarchy remains: Bautista | Cano | Baker.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Griffin Jax (MIN) — Jhoan Duran has gone three in a row.
2. Michael King (NYY) — Clay Holmes has pitched in two straight.
3. Matt Moore (LAA) — Carlos Estevez has too.
4. Aroldis Chapman (TEX) — And so has Will Smith.
5. Colin Holderman (PIT) — And David Bednar.
6. Brusdar Graterol (LAD) — Also Evan Phillips.

Tuesday:
1. Yennier Cano (BAL) — A Monday appearance by Felix Bautista would be three out of four.
2. The Rogers brothers (SF) — Same with Camilo Doval.
3. Joel Payamps (MIL) — Devin Williams has gone in three straight and might get two days off.
4. Andrew Chafin/Miguel Castro (ARI) — It’s a very hot seat right now for Scott McGough.

Aroldis Chapman records first save as a Ranger and could the Rays be moving towards the unthinkable?

July 16, 2023

Texas Rangers – Aroldis Chapman struck out a pair in a scoreless 9th inning and recorded his first save as a Ranger.  Manager Bruce Bochy said that Chapman is not the Rangers’ closer but that he and Will Smith will share the duties.  We will see if either one can establish himself as the primary closer or if this will be a true committee.   On other Rangers’ bullpen news, Josh Sborz was placed on the IL so Brock Burke replaces him on the hierarchy.

Updated hierarchy: *Smith | Chapman | Burke.
* = closer-by-committee

Tampa Bay Rays — Pete Fairbanks pitched a scoreless 9th inning for his 10th save of the season.  Don’t look now, but since returning from the IL in the middle of June, Pete Fairbanks has recorded all five Rays’ saves.  We wouldn’t dare pull the committee tag for the Rays given their history but if this was any other team, the asterisk would be gone.  We will see if the Closer Monkey Rays curse continues at the mere mention of removing the asterisk or if Fairbanks can keep this going. 

Hierarchy remains: *Fairbanks | Adam | Poche.
*=closer-by-committee

Chicago White Sox – Kendall Graveman allowed a run but was able to lock down his 8th save of the season yesterday.  Graveman has recorded the last two saves for the White Sox and his 8 saves lead the team.  The next closest is Reynaldo Lopez with 4, but he hasn’t recorded a save since the beginning of May so we will kick the asterisk for Graveman.  As we mentioned in our Trade Deadline Buy/Sell, Graveman is a trade candidate and Gregory Santos, and his 100 MPH sinker, could be a guy to watch.

Updated hierarchy: Graveman | Santos | Lopez.

New York Yankees — Clay Holmes closed out a 6-3 Yankees’ victory and earned his 11th save of the season.  Holmes is the best bet for a save on any given night but that’s not enough to kick the committee tag yet.  We will monitor if that changes and Holmes can settle in the role as the primary closer.

Hierarchy remains: *Holmes | Kahnle | King.
* = closer-by-committee

Atlanta Braves – AJ Minter was placed on the IL, but the Braves said it was more as a precautionary move so hopefully he will be able to return as soon as he is eligible.  While he is out, Joe Jimenez should see more time in the later innings.

Updated hierarchy: Iglesias | Yates | Jimenez.

Toronto Blue Jays — Jordan Romano was unavailable yesterday and is considered day-to-day.  With the top of the order due up in the 8th inning and the Blue Jays clinging to a 3-2 lead, Erik Swanson got the call and pitched a scoreless inning.  After the Blue Jays added a couple insurance runs, Yimi Garcia got the 9th inning and also pitched a scoreless inning to pick up his second save of the season.  Swanson and Garcia are both options to close if Romano misses more time.

Updated hierarchy: Romano | Swanson | Garcia.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Bryan Baker (BAL) – Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano have both pitched in two straight.
2. Griffin Jax/Emilio Pagan (MIN) – Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have both pitched in two straight, though Jax only threw 6 pitches yesterday.
3. Bryan Abreu/Ryne Stanek (HOU) – Ryan Pressly has pitched in two straight, including a 32 pitch blown save yesterday. The entire Astros hierarchy has pitched in two straight with Abreu throwing the fewest number of pitches yesterday.
4. Bryse Wilson (MIL) – The entire Brewers’ hierarchy has pitched in two straight.
5. Tyler Rogers (SF) – Camilo Doval has pitched in two straight.
6. Fernando Rodney (TB) – We mentioned a possible end to the Rays’ committee so we fully expect them to go crazy and bring back Fernando Rodney to close out today’s game to really stick it to us.

Monday
1. Jason Foley (DET) – If Alex Lange pitches today, it will be two of three, including a 29 pitch outing on Friday.

A quiet return after the All Star Break.

July 15, 2023

Toronto Blue Jays — Jordan Romano was removed from the All Star Game after only 5 pitches, but he threw a side session yesterday, and is reportedly doing much better than expected. Romano may still get a couple days off here, but it seems that he dodged a possible IL stint, which is great news for the Blue Jays who are in the middle of the playoff hunt. 

Hierarchy remains: Romano | Swanson | Mayza.

Atlanta Braves – The Braves received some bad news heading into the second half of the season when Nick Anderson was placed on the IL with a shoulder strain. Anderson had been one of the most effective relievers for the Braves, so this is major blow for the best team in baseball. AJ Minter is also dealing with a pectoral injury, although his doesn’t seem to be serious.  In the short term, we expect Kirby Yates to be the first option to step into the later innings, and if Minter is also going to miss some time look for Joe Jiminez and Collin McHugh to get some higher leverage spots as well. Longer term Atlanta will likely be shopping for bullpen help at the trade deadline as the rest of the roster is stacked and primed for another world series run. 

Updated hierarchy: Iglesias | Minter | Yates.

Vulture Save Watch:

  1. Jason Foley (DET) — Alex Lange threw 29 pitches yesterday, and may get a night off.
  2. Kyle Finnegan (WAS) — The Nationals have a pseudo double-header…
  3. Giovanny Gallegos (STL) — …against the Cardinals
  4. Nick Martinez (SD) — The Padres have a double-header…
  5. Gregory Soto (PHI) — …against the Phillies.
  6. Jason Adam (TB) — The Rays have a double-header…
  7. Taylor Clarke (KC) — against the Royals.

For Sunday:

  1. Daniel Bard (COL) — Justin Lawrence threw 21 pitches last night, so another long outing could earn him the night off.

2023 Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: National League

July 14, 2023

—–
Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR — NL relievers
BUY+: None.
BUY: Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley, Jose Alvarado, Adbert Alzolay, Colin Holderman, Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley.
SELL: Raisel Iglesias, AJ Puk, David Robertson, Hunter Harvey, David Bednar, Scott McGough.
SELL+: Jordan Hicks.
—–

NL East

Atlanta Braves – The best team in baseball has gotten reliable innings from its bullpen all season, though they may feel a little bit short staffed given injuries to Dylan Lee and Jesse Chavez (along with 2021 postseason hero Tyler Matzek, who hasn’t appeared at all this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last fall). We figure the Braves will make an addition or two here, and we’ll put a very light sell on Raisel Iglesias if Atlanta makes a big splash by picking up Josh Hader.

BUY: None; SELL: Raisel Iglesias

Miami Marlins – The surprising Marlins could be headed for a playoff spot, but they’re unlikely to mortgage any significant future prospects. That doesn’t mean AJ Puk is safe, though, as it’s likely that there will be a handful of veteran rentals who have expiring contracts and thus won’t command a significant return, such as David Robertson or Craig Kimbrel. Another light sell for the Miami closer.

BUY: None; SELL: AJ Puk

New York Mets – Signed to a 1-year contract in the offseason, David Robertson is a candidate to be moved at the deadline. Adam Ottavino is signed through 2024, but he could go, too, as team’s likely won’t be scared away by his relatively team-friendly contract ($7.2 million a year), though it’s unlikely he closes if he’s dealt. That adds up to a buy for Ottavino (if Robertson is traded) and a buy for Brooks Raley (if both Robertson and Ottavino are both dealt). Robertson gets a sell tag since it’s not certain that he’d close for his new team.

BUY: Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley; SELL: David Robertson

Philadelphia Phillies – Craig Kimbrel’s fate likely hinges on how the Phillies play in the first few weeks after the break. If they fall out of contention, he’s likely a trade chip, but if they surge to within a game or two of the Wild Card, they’re likely to hang on to all of their assets. Since the latter is a bit more likely than the former — and since he’d likely displace most other teams’ closers should he be dealt — he narrowly avoids the sell tag here. Jose Alvarado is on the IL right now, but he gets a buy as the most likely reliever to inherit the job.

BUY: Jose Alvarado; SELL: None.

Washington Nationals – Hunter Harvey and Kyle Finnegan both have two more years of team control after this season, so they’d probably be among the more expensive trade chips on the market. At the same time, you don’t rebuild around your relievers, so there’s a chance one of them could get dealt, if there’s interest, though it’s unlikely either would close for their new teams.

BUY: None; SELL: Hunter Harvey.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs – If the Cubs are going to win the division they will need to come out hot in the 10 days after the all star break. If they can’t close the gap between themselves and Milwaukee and Cincinnati, expect them to be sellers come deadline day. If they are sellers, Adbert Alzolay’s spot at the top of the committee is only likely to get stronger as Mark Leiter Jr. and Michael Fulmer are potential trade targets. If they are buyers, the bullpen is not going to be their top priority. A soft buy on Alzolay is appropriate just in case the competition clears out for him.

BUY: Adbert Alzolay; SELL: None.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds are surprising leaders at the break, and closer Alexis Diaz has been a major part of that. Diaz was the subject of many trade rumors in May, but that was before the Reds ripped off 12 straight wins and vaulted to the lead of the NL Central. The Reds have such a young core that they have to believe this is the beginning of their window, so we don’t foresee them being major players at the deadline one way or another, and even if they are Alexis Diaz isn’t likely to go anywhere.

BUY/SELL: None.

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers have been disappointing, but find themselves only a game out of first place and have a huge opportunity with 6 games against the Reds in the next two weeks. They may try to add a reliever, but nobody that is available would be able to supplant Devin Williams, and with him in the middle of his arbitration years it’s unlikely the Brewers would be making their closer available.

BUY/SELL: None.

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates defied expectations to lead the division early in June, but a 10 game losing streak seems to have dashed hopes for this year. Nearly certain to be sellers at the deadline, they have one of the most attractive bullpen pieces available in David Bednar. Bednar grew up in Pittsburgh, and with several years of team control left there will absolutely be a push to keep him, but the return price might be too good for the Pirates who are at least another year or two from being competitive. Bednar would be a strong option to close wherever he ends up, but its not quite as certain as say Craig Kimbrel, so a soft sell is in line. If Bednar leaves, Colin Holderman is the clear beneficiary, although this would certainly be a committee without Bednar in the mix.

BUY Colin Holderman; SELL: David Bednar.

St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals have already announced that they will be sellers at the deadline, and a top target will be Jordan Hicks, who is rounding into form at just the right time to inflate his trade value. Hicks has always been a bit inconsistent, and there aren’t many contenders that he would be guaranteed to close for, so any trade likely hurts his value. Giovanny Gallegos is getting the buy tag, but he is another arm that is likely on the trading block, so he may not be the best handcuff. Genesis Cabrera is in the same boat, but would require Gallegos and Hicks to move so he stays neutral for now. One intriguing option is Ryan Helsley, who has been on the 15 day IL. There isn’t a timetable for Helsley’s return at this point, but if he’s able to come back this year, he may walk into a hollowed out bullpen and have a clear path back to the closers role.

BUY: Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley; SELL+ Jordan Hicks.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks – The surprising co-leaders of the NL West will be buyers at the deadline, and although improving their three-headed closer committee is not the team’s most pressing need, if the right reliever becomes available, they could upgrade here.

BUY: None; SELL: Scott McGough.

Colorado Rockies – With Colorado hopelessly out of playoff contention, the team could look to cash in on some of its better relief arms, which could include 38-year-old Daniel Bard. We don’t think current committee head Justin Lawrence is going anywhere, though.

BUY/SELL: None.

Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers are atop the division, tied with the Diamondbacks, and they could really use a bullpen upgrade. The cream of their relief staff (Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, and Caleb Ferguson) has been excellent, but everyone else is either injured or awful. A move for a top-end reliever is possible — it would allow LA to deploy their better pitchers earlier in games — but we think that any acquisitions are more likely to be middle-relief types.

BUY/SELL: None.

San Diego Padres – The underachieving Padres have every incentive to buy at the deadline, but whatever relief help they pick up (Scott Barlow?) won’t be displacing $14 million man Josh Hader from the ninth inning.

BUY/SELL: None.

San Francisco Giants –  San Francisco is in the heart of the playoff race, but doesn’t need to mess with Camilo Doval’s league-leading 26 saves.

BUY/SELL: None.