Jake McGee should start the season as closer; Dylan Floro is battling an injury

March 30, 2022

San Francisco Giants – Gabe Kapler said that Jake McGee would begin the season as closer.  We will move McGee to the head of the committee, but we still think that Camilo Doval is in the mix for saves.  

Updated hierarchy: *McGee | Doval | Rogers.
* = closer-by-committee

Miami Marlins – Dylan Floro is dealing with some arm soreness and might not be ready for opening day.  He has not been shut down so there is still a chance he can get himself in a position to pitch opening day, but if he misses any time, Anthony Bender could see some save chances to start the year.

Hierarchy remains: Floro | Bender | Bass.

Los Angeles Dodgers — Manager Dave Roberts has said that Blake Treinen will not be used as a traditional closer and now Treinen has said he prefers the flexible role.  We will see how this plays out but it sounds like Daniel Hudson and maybe even Brusdar Graterol could see more save chances and that’s bad news for Treinen fantasy owners.  

Updated hierarchy: *Treinen | Hudson | Graterol.
* = closer-by-committee

San Diego Padres — Bob Melvin has said he wants to name a closer by the start of the season but he might end up with a committee to start the season.  Robert Suarez and Emilio Pagan are likely to be part of that committee but one guy to keep an eye on is Dinelson Lamet.  We have seen a number of starters move to the bullpen with great success and Lamet has a chance to be another example of that.  We will slide Lamet onto the hierarchy and continue to monitor this situation — which, yes, also includes Pierce Johnson, the Curveball King.

Updated hierarchy: *Suarez | Pagan | Lamet.
* = closer-by-committee

Tampa Bay Rays — Pete Fairbanks is likely to miss at least a few months with a lat injury, opening the high-leverage door for J.T. Chargois, J.P. Feyereisen, J.A. Happ, J.D. Drew, J.R. Smith, J.J. Watt, and, why not, maybe even J.G. Wentworth. It’s the Rays, baby, anything can happen.

Updated hierarchy: *Kittredge | Chargois | Feyereisen.
* = closer-by-committee

Cleveland Guardians — The Guardians have brought back veteran Bryan Shaw on a one-year deal and that’s good news for their bullpen, because setup man James Karinchak is dealing with a right arm strain and will be shut down for 7-10 days.  We will move Shaw back onto the hierarchy and keep an eye on Karinchak to see if he ends up being placed on the IL.

Updated hierarchy: Clase | Karinchak | Shaw.

Top 30 Middle Relievers for Holds

March 29, 2022

The Hold is becoming more fashionable in fantasy leagues who want to reward bullpen pitchers who perform well but don’t get the 9th inning for whatever reason. This list aims to identify players who fit that model. Players who we have listed as a team’s closer aren’t listed, as they will have value no matter what league you play in.

Tier I
Devin Williams
Chad Greene
Jonathan Loaisiga

The top tier is where you’ll find elite set up men who have great numbers in their own right, but who are blocked by an equally good closer ahead of them. This tier gets smaller and smaller each year as more teams move away from a set closer.

Tier II
Seth Lugo
Ian Kennedy
Paul Sewald
Aaron Bummer
Will Smith
Genesis Cabrera
Archie Bradley
Brad Boxberger
Art Warren
David Robertson

The 2nd tier is a place for solid options who have a single question mark. That question is usually a possible ascent to the closers role at some point, but sometimes is injury or age related. These players may be more valuable than the Tier I group in many leagues, as they are often in position to take over as a primary closer, but this will bring down their overall holds numbers.

Tier III
Hector Neris
James Karinchak
Jake McGee
Lucas Sims
Daniel Hudson
Trevor Richards
Kendall Graveman
Josh Staumont
Tanner Rainey
Aaron Loup
Luke Jackson

The 3rd tier is for slightly less than elite pitchers who will still generate a good amount of holds for you. These guys are usually not lights out relievers, or have injury concerns, but they can eat innings and routinely find themselves in valuable spots. Their ratios may leave a little bit to be desired, but they should see plenty of chances over the year.

Tier IV

Ryan Brasier
Tyler Rogers
Michael Fulmer
Brusdar Graterol
Amir Garrett
Colin McHugh
Deolis Guerra
Adam Ottavino

The 4th tier is where you’ll find some high risk/reward guys. There will be a good amount of value here, but you’ll have to take on some of the bad with the good. This is where you’ll find effective relievers who need to grow into a role, or those who may be due for a regression. If they become a go to set up option, they are likely to keep that spot and put up solid numbers for you

Top 15 Middle Relievers / Save Sleepers for 2022

March 28, 2022

Below are our top middle relievers/save sleepers for 2022. Please note that these rankings are based on traditional (saves only) leagues and are therefore weighted toward players with the best chances of getting save opportunities at some point this season. One guy who you won’t see on this list but is definitely worth keeping an eye on is Lucas Sims. We don’t consider Sims a middle reliever option because if he wasn’t injured, he would already be on top of the Reds’ hierarchy for us.

1. Paul Sewald – The Mariners’ bullpen was a big surprise last year and Paul Sewald was a major reason why. Sewald recorded eleven saves and struck out over 100 batters. Drew Steckenrider is back after recording fourteen saves last year, but Sewald is absolutely in the mix for saves and could end up heading this committee.

2. Jake McGee – Jake McGee saved 31 games with a 2.72 ERA and 0.91 WHIP last year. Young flame-throwing Camilo Doval served as the Giants’ closer in the playoffs last year and we have him at the top of the committee to start the season. At the very least, McGee should be the primary lefty in the committee, and he has the potential to be at the top of the committee if the young righty Doval struggles at all.

3. Daniel Hudson – Manager Dave Roberts has said the Dodgers don’t have a dedicated closer and that means that Daniel Hudson should receive some save opportunities even if Blake Treinen ends up leading the team in saves.

4. David Robertson – The Cubs’ bullpen is unsettled and while we give Rowan Wick the edge currently, veteran David Robertson is another option to close out games. Robertson certainly has the experience with three 30+ save seasons to his name and could end up being a decent source of saves this year.

5. Garrett Whitlock – Alex Cora might not name a closer until opening day and Matt Barnes is likely to get the first look. However, if Garrett Whitlock ends up in the bullpen again this year, he could be a multiple innings ace and that could include closing games. Barnes really struggled after the All-Star break last season so if he gets off to a rocky start, the Red Sox could turn to Whitlock.

6. Devin Williams – Devin Williams got off to a rough start last year but then was lights out starting in June. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Williams is stuck behind arguably the best fantasy closer in Josh Hader. Williams should see some save chances this year when Hader is rested and if anything were to happen to Hader, Williams would immediately become a top 5 closer.

7. Chris Stratton – Chris Stratton is a veteran reliever who saved eight games for the Pirates last year. Stratton will be part of the committee that David Bednar is expected to lead and he could be a cheap source of saves if the Pirates decide to try and ease Bednar into the role.

8. Michael Fulmer – Michael Fulmer saved fourteen games last year and had a better ERA and a lot fewer walks than current closer Gregory Soto. If Soto stumbles at all, Fulmer showed last year that he can step in and close out games.

9. Jonathan Loaisiga – Jonathan Loaisiga had a great season for the Yankees last year and that included five saves. The Yankees should win a lot of games this year and that should mean a lot of save chances. Also, Aroldis Chapman has missed time in four of the past five seasons so that makes Loaisiga a pretty good guy to gamble on for saves among middle relievers.

10. Craig Kimbrel – There was speculation that Kimbrel might be traded this off-season and there is still a chance that could happen. If Kimbrel is traded, he would likely become the closer on his new team and that is enough of a reason to take a chance on him in fantasy leagues. He also could pick up a few saves even if he stays with the White Sox as the primary option when Liam Hendriks is unavailable.

11. Anthony Bender – Anthony Bender struck out more batters and had a lower WHIP than closer Dylan Floro last year. Also, Floro is experiencing some arm soreness and that makes Bender an attractive option to take a chance on late in your draft if you need saves.

12. Art Warren – Art Warren had a 1.29 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 34 Ks in 21 innings last year. With Lucas Sims injured to start the season, Warren is in the mix to close out games to start the season.

13. Seth Lugo – Seth Lugo is a key member of the Mets’ bullpen and although Edwin Diaz was good last year, he is only a couple of years removed from a disastrous first season with the Mets. You could do worse than Lugo as a late-round pick in deep leagues.

14. Josh Staumont – Josh Staumont had a strong season for the Royals last year and Mike Matheny has not been shy about using multiple relievers to close out games. Scott Barlow is back after a successful run as closer to finish last season but Staumont’s numbers show that he could likely handle the role as well if given the opportunity.

15. Tanner Rainey – Tanner Rainey had a forgettable 2021 season, but he showed a lot of promise in 2020 when he had a 2.66 ERA and 0.74 WHIP with 32 ks in 20.1 innings. Kyle Finnegan, who is ahead of Rainey currently, had a 1.48 WHIP last year so he is not exactly a lights-out closer. If Rainey can regain his 2020 form, he could challenge Finnegan for the closer’s role.

2022 Tiered Closer Rankings

March 25, 2022

Behold, Closer Monkey’s tiered closer rankings for 2022. Remember these rankings are based on traditional (5×5) leagues, so while WHIP and strikeouts are considered, holds are not. Stay tuned for our posts next week where we’ll discuss middle relievers.

Tier 1
1 (tie). Liam Hendriks
1 (tie). Josh Hader

You know these guys pretty well and there isn’t much we need to say about them. 30+ saves, top two in reliever WAR, sparkling K/9 ratios, and closing for likely playoff teams. Hader’s a little wilder, but he’s also about five years younger. Aim here first. But you knew that.

Tier 2
3. Ryan Pressly
4 (tie). Emmanuel Clase
4 (tie). Raisel Iglesias
6. Kenley Jansen
7. Edwin Diaz

These next five guys are pretty sure things too, with high-end stuff and the right situation to potentially lead the league in saves. Clase, who wasn’t ranked last season and lags behind the others slightly in strikeout rate, led all relievers in average fastball velocity in 2021 at 100.4 mph. A slight word of caution for Kenley Jansen — his recent walk-rate spike was fueled by a 6.61 BB/9 rate away from Dodger Stadium and its NL-low walk rates.

Tier 3
8. Blake Treinen
9. Jordan Romano
10. Aroldis Chapman
11. Giovanny Gallegos
12. Taylor Rogers

These guys are also very solid, but each comes with an obvious caveat. Treinen struggled through injuries in 2019 and lost his ninth-inning role, and it’s not quite clear he’ll be the only guy closing for LA. Romano had surgery on his non-throwing arm in the offseason and hasn’t yet broken through to the top tier. Chapman will still strike out the side, but he’ll walk the bases loaded first. And Gallegos and Rogers are better than you think, but will they get the chance to close full-time?

Tier 4
13. Corey Knebel
14. Matt Barnes
15. Mark Melancon
16. Camilo Doval
17. Gregory Soto
18. Scott Barlow
19. Lou Trivino

Here’s a group of guys who are certainly worth drafting, but not too early — chances are at least a few of them won’t lead their teams in saves this season. Knebel, Barnes, and Melancon should be familiar, but a breakout candidate here is Doval, who could run away with the job in San Francisco. Most importantly, if your league has a one-Barlow roster limit, go with Scott (“Scoots McGoots,” evidently) over Joe.

Tier 5
20. Dylan Floro
21. Alex Colome
22. Andrew Kittredge
23. David Bednar
24. Kyle Finnegan
25. Joe Barlow
26. Cole Sulser
27. Drew Steckenrider

Each year this bargain tier offers a few jewels. If you think this is finally the year that Tampa gives one reliever a majority of saves, maybe try Kittredge on for size! Bednar had great secondary stats last season, and he could definitely catch on in Pittsburgh. Maybe Colome’s ground-ball stuff can help him succeed where others have failed for the Rockies. Don’t be afraid to take a flyer down here, but don’t be afraid to bail out and grab a new option the first time we send out an alert.

Tier 6
28. Robert Suarez
29. Rowan Wick
30. Hunter Strickland

We don’t recommend these three pitchers or teams, because they combine unproven or mediocre stuff with unsettled and questionable situations. Suarez closed successfully in Japan, but he’s got a six-man committee to deal with; Wick faces a ton of competition as well; and Strickland is just standing in for all of the mediocre options in the Reds bullpen. At this level, you’re better off stashing some of the middle relievers we’ll list in our next few posts.

2022 NL East Preview

March 24, 2022

Atlanta Braves – The Braves looked like they were ready to enter 2022 with largely the same bullpen that they won the 2021 World Series with – a solid group of relievers including Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and AJ Minter. But then, just a few days ago, they added the best closer on the free agent market in Kenley Jansen and now they’re poised to start the season with one of the league’s best bullpens. Newcomer Collin McHugh will also likely contribute.

Starting 2022 hierarchy: Jansen | Smith | Matzek.
Holds candidates: Smith, McHugh, Matzek, Jackson, Minter.

Miami Marlins – Dylan Floro will start the season where he finished it last year, as Miami’s primary choice for 9th inning responsibilities. Anthony Bender and Anthony Bass will be the set-up men, with veteran Richard Bleier contributing occasional lefthanded holds. Unless you’re in a pretty deep league, Floro is the only reliever worth owning here. Bender is the likely handcuff if Floro struggles.

Starting 2022 hierarchy: Floro | Bender | Bass.
Holds candidates: Bender, Bass, Bleier.

New York Mets – The Mets bullpen will shake out similarly to a season ago, with Edwin Diaz handling the 9th while Seth Lugo and Trevor May share the set-up role. Adam Ottavino joins to provide some depth along with holdovers Miguel Castro.

Starting 2022 hierarchy: Diaz | Lugo | May.
Holds candidates: Lugo, May, Ottavino.

Philadelphia Phillies – It’s possible the Phillies go into the season with a closer by committee, but if they give someone the job out of the gate, it’s most likely to be new signing Corey Knebel, who has impressed his coaches and teammates so far this spring. Two other signings, Jeurys Familia and Brad Hand, figure to factor in to the late inning mix as well, though Jose Alvarado figures to be ahead of them both. Seranthony Dominguez, who struck out the side in his first spring appearance, could also play a role if he can recapture his pre-injury form.

Starting 2022 hierarchy: *Knebel | Alvarado | Dominguez.
* = closer-by-committee
Holds candidates: Alvarado | Dominguez | Familia | Hand.

Washington Nationals – It’s not certain that Kyle Finnegan starts out as the Washington closer, but he’s the best bet, having finished 2021 with the job. Veterans Will Harris and Sean Doolittle figure to help bridge the gap along with Tanner Rainey, who has flashed at times in his young career.

Starting 2022 hierarchy: Finnegan | Rainey | Harris.
Holds candidates: Rainey | Harris | Doolittle.