No clarity yet among Glover, Treinen, and Kelley

March 30, 2017

New York Mets — As expected, Jeurys Familia will miss the first 15 games of the year as a result of his offseason domestic violence arrest. Addison Reed will close during Familia’s suspension.

Updated hierarchy: Reed | Salas | Robles.

Washington Nationals — Still no clarity in D.C., where the front office loves what it sees from Koda Glover, but hasn’t been ready to commit to him over sinkerballer Blake Treinen and fragile-armed Shawn Kelley. The latest media speculation is that Treinen’s durability could give him the edge. We may not have an answer until the Nationals take on the Marlins next Monday.

Hierarchy remains: *Glover | Treinen | Kelley.
* = closer-by-committee

Colorado Rockies — It’s a guessing game in Colorado, where neither Greg Holland nor Adam Ottavino is having a lights-out spring. We continue to believe that it’ll be Holland closing out games for the Rockies.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Ottavino | McGee.

Seattle Mariners — The Mariners’ bullpen has been ravaged by injuries — Tony Zych and Steve Cishek will be on the shelf through at least mid-April, while Shae Simmons could see an even longer absence. 24-year-old Dan Altavilla — who made 28 starts in high-A in 2005 and jumped straight to the bigs from the Jacksonville Suns Jumbo Shrimp — will be counted on to repeat his impressive run from last September.

Updated hierarchy: Diaz | Vincent | Altavilla.

Boston Red Sox – Tyler Thornburg is headed to the disabled list with a controversial shoulder injury. Joe Kelly will slide into the eighth, leaving some combination of Matt Barnes, Robbie Ross, Jr., and Heath Hembree to take the seventh.

Updated hierarchy: Kimbrel | Kelly | Barnes.

Tampa Bay Rays — A lingering lat injury will sideline Brad Boxberger through at least the first few weeks of April. If Erasmo Ramirez isn’t traded soon, he’ll be in line to get some seventh-inning work. Old friends Danny Farquhar, Chase Whitley, and Shawn Tolleson are the other options.

Updated hierarchy: Colome | Cedeno | Ramirez.

Los Angeles Dodgers — Adam Liberatore will start the season in the minors. Grant Dayton, Luis Avilan, and Chris Hatcher are the names to know in his stead.

Updated hierarchy: Jansen | Romo | Dayton.

Koda Glover on the inside track in Washington

March 22, 2017

Washington Nationals — Opening Day is just 12 days away, but Dusty Baker claims to have given no thought whatsoever to who will be closing for Washington. With most of the Nats’ big relievers pitching in minor league games, Koda Glover has been getting the bulk of the ninth innings for the big club — and Jon Heyman has reported that Shawn Kelley is no longer a candidate to close. Glover turns 24 next month, creating some concern about whether he can handle the role, but we think that Baker’s confidence in Glover’s skills (“We like us some Koda. Big time.”) and the manager’s preference for settled bullpen roles gives the youngster the advantage over Blake Treinen. Meanwhile, Joe Nathan’s strong spring might not be enough to allow him to survive Friday’s opt-out date on his contract.

Updated hierarchy: *Glover | Treinen | Kelley.
* = closer-by-committee

Colorado Rockies — Greg Holland has looked healthy so far in his spring training appearances, and local reporters seem confident that he will start the season as the closer, moving Adam Ottavino into an eighth-inning role.

Updated hierarchy: Holland | Ottavino | McGee.

Cincinnati Reds — Presumed committee head Raisel Iglesias was scratched from a Saturday appearance with back problems and a stiff elbow. Bryan Price claims that the issues are minor, but any missed time for Iglesias will be a boon for Drew Storen, Michael Lorenzen, and Tony Cingrani.

Hierarchy remains: *Iglesias | Storen | Lorenzen.
* = closer-by-committee

San Francisco Giants — Those considering Will Smith as a source of holds will need to go elsewhere; Smith might need Tommy John surgery to repair a sprained UCL.

Hierarchy remains: Melancon | Strickland | Law.

Top Middle Relievers 2017 – Holds Edition

Predicting hold candidates is difficult because hold opportunities are largely a function of team success. Teams that have late leads can generate multiple holds per game, and dominant LOOGYs can rack up holds in a hurry. Further complicating things is the growing trend for managers to (correctly!) use their best arms in the biggest spots of the game, be it in the 7th inning or 9th (Hi, Tito!)

We aren’t assigning numerical values to players within tiers, as these would differ depending on whether your league is saves+holds league, straight-up holds, or a (SV+H)-BS league, so please factor your league rules in accordingly. You also may see several players from the same team in the same tier, where spring training battles will determine who wins the 8th inning going into the season (O’Day vs Brach, etc.)

All those disclaimers aside, here are your tiered holds rankings for 2017.

Tier 1
Andrew Miller, Cleveland Indians
Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
Addison Reed, New York Mets
Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs
*Cam Bedrosian, Los Angeles Angels
-Likely to start season as closer; watch Andrew Bailey if Huston Street misses extended time.

Tier 2
Tyler Thornburg, Boston Red Sox
Matt Bush, Texas Rangers
Nate Jones, Chicago White Sox
Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves
Sergio Romo, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies

Tier 3
Bruce Rondon, Detroit Tigers
Brad Ziegler, Miami Marlins
Kevin Siegrist, St. Louis Cardinals
Greg Holland, Colorado Rockies
Pedro Strop, Chicago Cubs
Brad Brach, Baltimore Orioles
Darren O’Day, Baltimore Orioles
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros
Blake Treinen, Washington Nationals

Tier 4
Carter Capps, San Diego Padres
Ryan Buchter, San Diego Padres
Steve Cishek, Seattle Mariners
Sean Doolittle, Oakland A’s
Fernando Salas, New York Mets
Tyler Clippard, New York Yankees
Hunter Strickland, San Francisco Giants
Jason Grilli, Toronto Blue Jays
Joe Smith, Toronto Blue Jays
Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays

Top 15 Middle Relievers for 2017

Below is a ranking of our top 15 middle relievers, based on their likelihood to get saves this season — not necessarily their skill level. As an example, Pedro Strop is a very good reliever who’s unlikely to get any save chances, because he’s stuck behind Wade Davis and Hector Rondon. So although Strop is a much better pitcher than a number of the guys listed below, he’s not ranked.

1. Cam Bedrosian, Los Angeles Angels — Huston Street was likely going to start the year as the closer for the Angels, but he hurt his back and is expected to miss 3-4 weeks.  Street’s injury isn’t surprising, given his history, and Bedrosian would have been on this list regardless.  However, now that Bedrosian has a clearer path to see saves to start the season, he vaults up to number one.  With an ERA just over 1.00 and 51 Ks in 40.1 innings last year, Bedrosian has the numbers to close out games. Be aware, though, that Bedrosian is getting over a minor groin strain and has yet to make his first appearance of the spring.

2. Addison Reed, New York Mets — Addison Reed is another middle reliever who has the chance to see saves right out of the gate in 2017.  Closer Jeurys Familia, who led the league in saves last year, is potentially facing a suspension for domestic violence charges that were eventually dropped.  Reed saved 40 games four years ago and had a stellar season setting up Familia last season.

3. Andrew Miller, Cleveland Indians — Cody Allen has already been named the closer in Cleveland, but that doesn’t mean he will receive all the save chances.  Andrew Miller is too good to not see some time in the ninth inning.  The Indians also added a veteran lefty in Boone Logan, which should allow manager Terry Francona to match up against lefties earlier in the game, saving Miller for the end of the game if needed.

4. Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies — Hector Neris struck out over 100 batters in 2016, and since we think the guy ahead of him (Jeanmar Gomez) is the 30th-best closer in the league, Neris could end up being a good source of saves.  Gomez saved 37 games for the Phillies last year, but finished with an ERA close to 5.00 and well under a strikeout per inning.  If Gomez stumbles to start the year, Neris could take the job and run with it.

5. Greg Holland, Colorado Rockies — Greg Holland is practicing patience as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery, and fantasy owners might be wise to do the same.  It may take Holland some time to round back into form, but if he can get anywhere close to his All-Star days of 2013 and 2014, he could be a steal in the later rounds of your draft.

6. Nate Jones, Chicago White Sox — There have already been rumors of closer David Robertson being traded, which would open the door for Nate Jones.  Jones struck out 80 guys last year against only 15 walks.  Those numbers could lead to success closing out games if Jones gets a chance.

7. Carter Capps, San Diego Padres — Although he didn’t pitch at all last year and has zero career saves, Capps could end up being one of the most coveted middle relievers.  Before Capps got hurt two years ago, he had amassed a ridiculous 58 Ks in just 30.1 innings.  The Padres do not have an established closer currently, and the possibility of turning those strikeout numbers into saves this year is very intriguing.

8. Blake Treinen, Washington Nationals — Blake Treinen has been mentioned as a candidate to close games for the Nationals, along with Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover.  Treinen picked up his first career save with the Nationals last season and ended up with the lowest ERA of the three pitchers in the committee.

9. Sean Doolittle, Oakland A’s — Sean Doolittle has at least one save in each of the five seasons, and we expect that to continue in 2017.  Doolittle has struggled to stay healthy the last couple years, but his 2016 strikeout numbers were pretty good, and his walk rate per nine innings was under 2 for the third time in the last four years.

10. Dellin Betances, New York Yankees — Betances ended up with 12 saves last year, but he’ll return to setup duties after the Yankees signed Aroldis Chapman.  He should still see the occasional save chance when Chapman is rested, and if anything were to happen to the Yankees’ closer, Betances would immediately become an elite option.

11. Drew Storen, Cincinnati Reds — Drew Storen has had quite an up-and-down career when it comes to saves.  This is a guy who saved 43 games in just his second season and then another 29 games just a couple years ago.  However, Storen has not been a reliable source for saves during his other seasons in the league.  This year he joins a Reds bullpen that was one of the worst in baseball in 2016, making him an interesting lottery ticket.

12. Matt Bush, Texas Rangers — Bush had a great year pitching out of the Rangers’ bullpen last season.  Sam Dyson will be the closer to start the season, but Bush has more typical closer numbers.  Keep an eye on Bush if Dyson slips up at all for Texas.

13. Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves — Vizcaino began the year as the Braves’ closer last season and saved 10 games prior to the All-Star break.  However, injuries in the second half of the season derailed him, and the Braves re-signed Jim Johnson in the offseason.  If Vizcaino can stay healthy in 2017, he could challenge Johnson, who is no stranger to losing his closer gig.

14. Corey Knebel, Milwaukee Brewers — The Brewers signed Neftali Feliz this past offseason in part because Corey Knebel did not show the same form in 2016 as he did in 2015.  Feliz did struggle down the stretch last year as well, so if Knebel can adjust, he could pick up some saves for the Brewers and your fantasy team.

15. Bruce Rondon, Detroit Tigers — Francisco Rodriguez is entering his 16th year in the league, and while he has continued to get the job done, age can be a steep cliff for relievers.  Bruce Rondon has bounced around between the majors and the minors the past couple seasons, but really came on strong at the end of last year.  This could be the year that he puts it all together for a full season and finally reaches his closer potential.