With the second half about to begin, things remain unsettled in the National League, with only four teams not within four games of the last Wild Card spot. From MLB.com:
Because sites can view things differently, the updated playoff odds from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference will be shared. First, Fangraphs:
And, from Baseball Reference:
This post will try to identify players who could be traded in the coming weeks, along with roster notes of interest for each National League team.
Trade Deadline Glossary
BUY+ = A reliever with a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
BUY = A reliever with a slight chance (20 percent or higher) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
SELL = A reliever with a slight chance (20 percent or lower) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.
SELL+ = A reliever wth a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of losing the closer role as a result of the trade deadline.
TL;DR
BUY+: Luke Weaver (NYM); Justin Martinez (ARI)
BUY: Michael Petersen (MIA); Abner Uribe (MIL); Mason Montgomery (PIT); Jeremiah Estrada (SD); Erik Miller (SF); Dylan Smith (SF)
SELL: Pete Fairbanks (MIA); Paul Sewald (ARI)
SELL+: Gregory Soto (PIT)
National League East
- Tyler Kinley has a $5.5 million team option.
- 2027 Free Agent: Raisel Iglesias
Following a strong start, the team struggled in June. Still, the playoff odds remain high on both sites for Atlanta, and they could be buyers, but the bullpen will not be a priority unless the news on Robert Suarez takes a turn for the worse:
BUY/SELL: None
- 2027 Free Agent: Pete Fairbanks
On the other end of the spectrum, the Marlins racked up 20 wins during June, catapulting into postseason consideration. There is still a half-season remaining, so things can change. If they fade, Fairbanks will be moved, but his relationship with Peter Bendix implies the veteran closer will get a say in where he’s traded. If the Marlins buy, upgrading the closer role should be a priority.
SELL: Pete Fairbanks; BUY: Michael Petersen
- 2027 Free Agents: A.J. Minter; Brooks Raley
The Mets are open for business and will be trading for prospects. Not only do the Mets have two left-handed chips for teams trying to take down the Dodgers, but if Luke Weaver becomes available, he could be an eighth-inning reliever on many contending teams and even a closer if the right situation presents itself. With other teams in limbo, the Mets can control a portion of the reliever market by dealing Weaver, Minter, and Raley.
BUY+: Luke Weaver
- 2027 Free Agents: José Alvarado; Tim Mayza
Pushing its chips in last year for Jhoan Duran has changed the dynamics of this leverage ladder. He’s been dominant. Another leverage reliever remains a priority for the team. This becomes more pressing after this injury update:
BUY/SELL: None
- Max Kranick has an $800 thousand team option.
No team has more save opportunities (54) or more blown saves (27) than the Nationals after the first half of the season. If the team wants to contend for a postseason berth, adding veteran relievers is a necessity. However, there are no guarantees. Anyone they do add will be provided save chances, so monitor the rumor mill closely over the next week.
BUY/SELL: None (for now)
National League Central
- Hunter Harvey has a mutual option for $8 million, Caleb Thielbar has a mutual option for $6 million, and Jacob Webb has a team option at $2.5 million.
- 2027 Free Agent: Hoby Milner
Much of the team’s approach will depend on Daniel Palencia. When can he return after the All-Star break, and can he remain healthy? A reliever capable of setting up or closing when necessary should be a priority add, but the team also has needs in starting pitching. Here is his most recent update from MLB.com:
BUY/SELL: None (unless Palencia suffers a setback)
- Emilio Pagán has a $10 million player option. Pierce Johnson has an $8 million player option.
- 2027 Free Agents: Brock Burke; Caleb Ferguson
After Terry Francona guided them to the playoffs, a return trip seemed in the offing, but injuries and performance have derailed these plans. While the team has two left-handed relievers who could be moved, teams will prefer Burke. The team and Pagán have mutual regard for each other, so I bet he stays and opts in for next season. As for Johnson, Burke, and Ferguson, they should keep a go bag packed.
BUY/SELL: None
- No options or pending free agents
Constantly turning over the roster simplifies contract situations. There are concerns about Trevor Megill and his workload; he has not thrown more than 47 innings in any regular season in the majors and enters July 10 with 36 innings banked. Abner Uribe has proven capable of filling in if needed, and Aaron Ashby leads all relievers with 11 wins. Keeping this triumvirate fresh will be a priority ahead of the playoffs, so adding one or two ahead of the trade deadline makes sense. Only because the injury issues in the past have caused concern:
BUY: Abner Uribe
- 2027 Free Agents: Gregory Soto; Dennis Santana
What were thought to be potential co-closers for the season could be traded ahead of the deadline if necessary. However, if the team goes for it, adding a veteran reliever with closer experience makes sense. Would they enter the Mason Miller sweepstakes? They have the prospect cache that can land him. If they stand pat, Mason Montgomery and Carmen Mlodzinski have an inside track for more high-leverage opportunities.
BUY: Mason Montgomery; SELL+: Gregory Soto
- Ryne Stanek has a $6 million team option.
- 2027 Free Agent: JoJo Romero
Already exceeding expectations this season, the team’s handling of the trade deadline will be intriguing. Will the team buy and sell? This remains a viable option according to Will Leitch of MLB.com:
BUY/SELL: None (this changes if they are willing to move O’Brien)
National League West
- 2027 Free Agents: Paul Sewald; Jonathan Loáisiga; A.J. Puk; Ryan Thompson; Taylor Clarke; Kevin Ginkel
Mike Hazen maintains he wants to add to the roster before the trade deadline, but the team will dictate how he proceeds. If they are not within reach of a playoff spot, teams will be circling for the bevy of veterans that may be made available.
SELL: Paul Sewald; BUY+: Justin Martinez
- Antonio Senzatela has a $14 million team option.
Although he has struggled in recent appearances, a team will take a chance on Senzatela, then make him a free agent at the end of the season. Others could be made available and would get the free Coors bump. Since there has not been a closer this season, though it’s been intimated Jordan Romano is the current one:
BUY/SELL: None
- 2027 Free Agents: Alex Vesia; Evan Phillips; Blake Treinen; Brusdar Graterol
Evan Phillips has been activated. As for the trade deadline, once Edwin Díaz returns, the Dodgers will deploy a “superpen” for the postseason but may manage workloads closely during the regular season.
But it may be a quiet trade deadline for relievers, though a depth piece would not hurt.
BUY/SELL: None
- 2027 Free Agents: Adrian Morejon; Jason Adam
A.J. Preller is keeping an “open-minded” approach leading up to the trade deadline. A stark contrast to past seasons.
If Preller sells, he will have more attractive options than the Mets, with Jason Adam and Adrian Morejon on expiring contracts.
BUY/SELL: BUY: Jeremiah Estrada
- Rowan Wick has an $800,000 team option for 2027.
One of the weakest bullpens does not have the right fits for contenders, meaning it will be more of the same for the Giants unless they get an upside arm in trades for their positional players on the market. Keaton Winn and Jason Foley have been activated to replenish the bullpen. Blade Tidwell could also be converted into a relief role before September.
BUY: Erik Miller; BUY: Dylan Smith; SELL: Caleb Kilian
These will change as the news cycle churns ahead of the trade deadline. Be sure to stick with us through August 3 for all the latest updates regarding high-leverage relievers.
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.
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