March 2, 2016
Chicago Cubs – Hector Rondon took over the closer role in July, and never looked back. Joe Maddon has always been a wild-card with his bullpen, (see: Fernando Rodney’s career), but Rondon enters 2016 with a firm grip on the late innings for what is projected to be one of the best teams in the league. Behind him, Pedro Strop and Justin Grimm will take the setup spots. While we think Strop will start the year getting the 8th inning, and would likely take over if Rondon struggles early, but Grimm is younger and has better numbers over the last two year. Also, Joe Maddon said recently that Grimm has “the kind of stuff that finishes games” while adding that he hopes that he stays in the role he had last year. Travis Wood and Rex Brothers will battle for the LOOGY role, but neither is likely to be in the mix for consistent saves in the early going.
Starting 2016 hierarchy: Rondon | Strop | Grimm.
Holds candidates: Strop, Grimm, Brothers, Wood.
Cincinnati Reds – The departure of (recently suspended) Aroldis Chapman leaves a void in the back end of the Reds bullpen. When Chapman missed time last year, Jumbo Diaz and JJ Hoover took most of the save opportunities with mixed results. Both relievers struggled, but both also had stretches of dominance. Hoover has been announced as the first one to take the closer’s role, but the Reds will have Diaz ready to take over if Hoover doesn’t start well. With the team in rebuilding mode, the bullpen is likely to be in flux all year, but Blake Wood and Tony Cingrani are likely to lead the charge in the middle innings. Wood has electric stuff, but struggles with command, while Cingrani was a top prospect as a starter, who will spend spring training prepping as a reliever. Both will get chances at the back end of the Reds bullpen, but are not likely to close as long as Hoover and Diaz are in the way.
Starting 2016 hierarchy: Hoover | Diaz | Cingrani.
Holds candidates: Diaz, Cingrani, Wood.
Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers had one of the most surprisingly stable bullpens in 2015, but the exit of Francisco Rodriguez leaves Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress singing Just the Two of Us. (We will run out of these eventually.) Smith and Jeffress will battle for the first shot at the closer role, but it will be an open competition, and Craig Counsell has already hinted at committee, saying “that’s not even a job really.” We think that Smith has the inside track, both because he has slightly better ratios and Jeffress is battling a minor injury, but this has all the makings of a dreaded closer-by-committee. Behind the frontrunners is former first round draft pick Corey Knebel, who could turn some heads this year with his swing-and-miss stuff if he can stay healthy.
Starting 2016 hierarchy: Smith | Jeffress | Knebel.
Holds candidates: Jeffress, Knebel, Blazek.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Last year’s NL Reliever of the Year and major league saves leader Mark Melancon returns to the closers role in 2016. While he had a couple of struggles last year, Melancon never lost the closers job, and will likely have a longer leash this year. Tony Watson will take the set-up role, and feels comfortable closing if called upon. Jared Hughes will fill the role left by Antonio Bastardo and Joakim Soria in the early going, but fireballer Arquimedes Caminero will also be in the mix for holds. The Pirates have a solid set of relievers and figure to be in the hunt for the playoffs again in 2016, so they can be a good source of holds in leagues that count them.
Starting 2016 hierarchy: Melancon | Watson | Hughes.
Holds candidates: Watson, Hughes, Caminero.
St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal leads the always strong Cardinals bullpen again in 2016. With 48 saves last year, he is as locked in as anybody, but he does have an unusually strong set of relievers behind him. Top set up option Kevin Siegrist filled in at times as the closer and was dominant, while former closers Jonathan Broxton and Jordan Walden bring the always discussed “closing experience” to the table as well. Seth Maness has been a workhorse, and a sleeper in holds leagues, and if that wasn’t enough, the Cardinals picked up international free agent Seung Hwan Oh, who saved 41 games pitching in Japan last year. Oh has been talked about as a competitor for the set up job, and does boast a great nickname (“Final Boss.”) but with the other options in the crowded Cardinals bullpen, he will likely have to earn his way to the late innings. Jordan Walden is coming back from a shoulder injury that cost him the end of the 2015 season, but looks to be ready to start the season.
Starting 2016 hierarchy: Rosenthal | Siegrist | Broxton.
2016 Holds Candidates: Siegrist, Broxton, Maness, Oh, Walden.