Closer Monkey’s Leverage Ledger | 5.1.2026

Thursday’s slate featured seven wins by relievers, three saves, and four losses. Here are the saves in condensed form: 

At the end of April, there have been 242 saves recorded by 104 different pitchers. 

As for the vulture option during today’s slate: 

Vulture Save Option for 5.1.2026

  • Will Vest (DET): He may get an audition for a larger leverage role, including shared saves with a strong outing. Finnegan has pitched in back-to-back games. 

For those interested in our premium option (ad-free content), please use this LINK; it is $30 and covers the season. Premium will operate via Substack for 2026. Please include your preferred email address, and we will manually add you to our ad-free list. You can also Venmo the $30 to @gjewett9.

It may be fleeting, but little victories help the marathon go by faster. Jack Perkins worked around a lead-off infield single by retiring the next three Royals’ batters, one via strikeout, preserving the three-run lead for his third save, and second usage pattern as a “closer.” He threw 16 pitches (13 strikes – 81.3 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%).

He owns a modest six-game scoreless streak, spanning 9.1 innings, posting a 0.429 WHIP with 10 strikeouts against two walks (22.9 K-BB%) while recording a win and converting all three save chances. In 2026, he’s recorded a 17.3 percent swinging strike rate while allowing contact at a 69 percent clip. Here is how he approaches hitters by handedness:

Using Fangraphs splits by pitch this season, his results to this point:

  • Four-seam fastball: .198 wOBA, 13.3 SwStr%, 20 K-BB%
  • Slider: .337 wOBA, 14 SwStr%, 33.3 K-BB%
  • Change-up: .193 wOBA, 25.6 SwStr%, 35.7 K-BB%
  • Cutter: .511 wOBA, 22.7 SwStr%, 0 K-BB%

His SIERA (2.43) is slightly below his ERA, but his xERA (3.41) suggests some regression unless he reduces his line drive rate going forward. For now, fantasy managers will monitor if he continues getting the ninth inning, because it determines his ceiling for the rest of the season.

Hierarchy Remains: *Jack Perkins | *Hogan Harris | *Mark Leiter Jr. 

*= closer-by-committee

Three Takeaways

Kenley passed over in Atlanta: Presented a three-run lead at the bottom of the ninth, Kyle Finnegan worked around a one-out single by Mike Yastrzemski with a flyout and a game-ending strikeout of Ronald Acuña Jr. for his first save of the season. He threw 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) and induced one whiff. Accompanying his 0.57 ERA is a 1.213 WHIP with 12 strikeouts against 10 walks (3.2 K-BB%) through 15.2 innings. Drew Anderson collected his first win, tossing two scoreless innings, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out two.

It’s not a perfect statistic, but as Win Probability Added illustrates, Finnegan has the best rating despite his paltry K-BB percentage:

With swinging strike percentage and hard hit rate added in, here are the underlying statistics for the bullpen, and no, Jake Rogers will not be getting save chances anytime soon:

A.J. Hinch may remain steadfast in his support for Kenley Jansen, but if his outings do not improve, a shift in roles or a matchups-based approach will ensue, especially if he’s not used in a save situation during his next appearance. 

Hierarchy Remains: Kenley Jansen | Will Vest | Kyle Finnegan

Pagán and regression: Getting in work with a four-run lead, Emilio Pagán allowed Kyle Karros’ leadoff single, a one-out hit by Troy Johnston, and an RBI single by Mickey Moniak, followed by a sacrifice fly, before inducing a game-ending lineout by Hunter Goodman. He final reads: three hits and two earned runs on 11 pitches (10 strikes – 90.9 Strike%) with one whiff appearing for the first time in four days. He’s logged 13.2 innings this season, posting a 1.35 WHIP with 10 strikeouts versus six walks (6.9 K-BB%). Tony Santillan secured his ninth hold, allowing a hit and striking out one in the eighth. Connor Phillips issued a walk and struck out three in a scoreless seventh for his third hold.

Delving into Pagán’s results, his 5.40 ERA is accompanied by a 5.02 SIERA and a 4.20 xERA. He’s allowing more contact (up almost five percentage points versus 2025) and better contact, illustrated by his 56.1 hard hit percentage (23 of 41 batted ball events have been hard hits). Of greater concern, his PullAIR percentage is 45.7 percent, compared to a 23.3 percent career rate. His struggles are with the split-fingered fastball. He owns a .569 wOBA with the pitch this season and a 1.300 OPS allowed. With his results eerily aligned with 2024, was last year an outlier? Because if these trends do not improve, his role will be in peril as the year progresses:

Hierarchy Remains: Emilio Pagán | Tony Santillan | Graham Ashcraft

Can fantasy players trust Walker? During Game 1 in Philadelphia, Ryan Walker suffered his first loss and a second blown save, entering against the Phillies’ 4-5-6 lineup pocket. It started with a leadoff single by Adolis García, a strikeout, and a game-tying RBI triple by Bryson Stott. Walker almost wriggled out of the jam with a groundout by Edmundo Sosa, but an RBI infield single by Justin Crawford was the difference. He finished with three hits and two earned runs while striking out one during two-thirds of the ninth, throwing 21 pitches (16 strikes – 76.2 Strike%) with two whiffs (9.5 SwStr%). First, his illustrator:

This should appear strange since he only threw one slider, with the following results:

What stands out is the sinker location on Stott’s triple with a 3-2 count. Unlike Pagán, Walker has better batted-ball results, with a 29.7 percent hard-hit rate allowed, but his WHIP has risen due to his 10.7 walk percentage and 6.6 percent swinging-strike rate. It’s tough having a closer reliant on contact, especially when situations like this escalate. Hope lies in his 3.04 xERA, but reality may be his 3.72 SIERA fueled by a 12.5 K-BB percentage. This may be as good as it gets for Walker, which, if he’s getting the majority of save chances, helps, but they are not assured.

Here are the remaining leverage events of interest from Thursday’s slate.

American League

Minnesota Twins

Entering at the top of the ninth with a six-run lead, Justin Topa navigated around a lead-off walk with a flyout and a game-ending doubleplay groundout by Andrés Giménez. Cole Sands was warming up for the team’s first save since April 9, but sat down when the lead doubled from three to six.

  • Andrew Morris stranded two runners in the seventh and logged 1.1 scoreless frames while giving up a hit, securing his third hold.
  • Anthony Banda gave up a hit during two-thirds scoreless in the seventh for his second hold.

Opportunities remain sparse for this leverage ladder.

Hierarchy Remains: *Cole Sands | *Justin Topa | *Kody Funderburk

*= closer-by-committee

Quick Hits

  • Baltimore Orioles: Called upon with two runners on and two outs, Rico Garcia thwarted the threat, inducing an inning-ending groundout by Carlos Correa for his sixth hold during Game 1. He was not needed after his teammates scored five runs at the bottom of the inning.
  • Houston Astros: As the first reliever in during Game 2, Bryan Abreu allowed two hits, an earned run, and two walks while striking out three. He threw 27 pitches (17 strikes – 63 Strike%) and produced six whiffs (22.2 SwStr%). Enyel De Los Santos gave up a hit and a walk while striking out two in a scoreless bottom of the eighth.
  • Kansas City Royals: In an eventual loss, Alex Lange retired the side at the bottom of the eighth on five pitches.

National League

Atlanta Braves

In order of appearance, Tyler Kinley dealt with traffic but turned in a scoreless seventh, giving up two hits and a walk while striking out one for his fifth hold.

  • Joel Payamps suffered his second loss and a first blown save, allowing two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out one across one-third of the eighth.
  • Aaron Bummer stranded one of two runners, issuing a walk and striking out one, finishing the inning.
  • At the top of the ninth, José Suarez played Yahtzee, yielding two hits, two earned runs, and two walks with two strikeouts. Good roll, bad outing.

Hierarchy Remains: Robert Suarez | Tyler Kinley | Dylan Lee

Colorado Rockies

More dreaded work in a non-save capacity affected Victor Vodnik. He took over with his team trailing by two at the bottom of the eighth and gave up two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out one. First, his illustrator:

And, his results:

He’s allowed multiple runs in three of his last four appearances, pushing his current WHIP to 2.052 with 11 strikeouts versus seven walks (6.4 K-BB%) across 12.2 innings. It’s challenging to use him in saves when he’s such a risk to a team’s ratios.

  • Antonio Senzatela logged 1.2 scoreless frames, though he let his only inherited runner score in the sixth. He threw 16 pitches (75 Strike%) and induced one whiff, walking and striking out one. He may not transition into the team’s full-time closer, but he may be the best equipped for the role in this bullpen.

Hierarchy Remains: *Victor Vodnik | *Antonio Senzatela | Brennan Bernardino

*= closer-by-committee

New York Mets

Called upon at the top of the ninth with his team trailing by one, Devin Williams navigated around Nasim Nuñez’s leadoff single and a stolen base with a flyout, a fielder’s choice grounder cutting the runner down at home, and a game-ending caught stealing. He threw 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (14.3 SwStr%).

Speaking of ratios, Williams has an 8.00 ERA and a 2.33 WHIP, but a 3.20 SIERA with a 19.1 K-BB percentage through his first 11 appearances. His swinging strike rate and contact allowed are in line with past results. However, his BABIP of .560 is exactly twice his career BABIP (.280). Positive migration toward the mean should be happening soon, but will it salvage his season? It’s only May.

  • Luke Weaver was charged with his first loss and a second blown save, giving up two hits, including CJ Abrams’ go-ahead two-run home run in the eighth.
  • Brooks Raley fired a clean seventh, striking out two for his fourth hold.

Hierarchy Remains: Devin Williams | Luke Weaver | Brooks Raley

Philadelphia Phillies

For the first time since 2013, when Brian Duensing (MIN) accomplished the feat, a reliever won both games of a doubleheader. Chase Shugart stranded two runners while striking out his only batter at the top of the ninth in Game 1, then collected the win on a walk-off rally at the bottom of the inning. In Game 2, he benefited from a baserunning mistake and wriggled out of trouble for a scoreless top of the tenth, securing his second win on a separate walk-off rally at the bottom of the frame. Also from this contest, José Alvarado let his only inherited runner score, giving up two hits and a walk while striking out one over two-thirds of the ninth. Brad Keller hit a batter, resulting in an earned run, despite recording three strikeouts of four batters faced.

Hierarchy Remains: *Brad Keller | *José Alvarado | *Orion Kerkering

*= closer-by-committee

San Francisco Giants

Before Walker’s loss in Game 1, Erik Miller notched his fourth hold, firing a clean bottom of the eighth against the top of the lineup and striking out one. (Game 2): Extended for a second inning, Keaton Winn allowed a game-tying, two-out RBI double by Kyle Schwarber. He logged two innings, yielding two hits, an earned run, and three walks (one intentional). Matt Gage suffered his first loss, letting the “courtesy runner” score on a sacrifice bunt, followed by a sacrifice fly. Caleb Kilian tossed two scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out two across the sixth and seventh innings. 

Hierarchy Remains: *Ryan Walker | *Erik Miller | Keaton Winn

*= closer-by-committee

St. Louis Cardinals

Taking over at the bottom of the sixth, Gordon Graceffo retired all four batters, one via strikeout, and collected his second win, throwing 24 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with three whiffs (12.5 SwStr%).

  • JoJo Romero replaced him, giving up Brandon Lowe’s solo shot, a walk, and striking out two for his eighth hold during two-thirds of the seventh.
  • Ryne Stanek tossed a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out one.
  • Matt Svanson gave up two hits and an earned run at the bottom of the ninth, finishing with an eventual five-run margin. 

Hierarchy Remains: Riley O’Brien | JoJo Romero | George Soriano

Washington Nationals

Shutting the door on his third save, Gus Varland stranded a runner at the bottom of the eighth and worked around a two-out double by Francisco Alvarez in the ninth with a game-ending strikeout. He threw 22 pitches (13 strikes – 59.1 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (18.2 SwStr%).

He’s been scoreless in eight of his last nine outings, converting three of four save opportunities with a 1.20 WHIP and nine strikeouts against one walk (22.2 K-BB%) over 8.1 innings.

  • Richard Lovelady notched his second hold, yielding a hit during two-thirds scoreless in the eighth.
  • Mitchell Parker collected his second win, logging three innings, allowing two hits, an earned run, and a walk.

Hierarchy Remains: *Gus Varland | *Paxton Schultz | *PJ Poulin

*= closer-by-committee

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe, and be well. 

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net