Closer Monkey’s Leverage Ledger | 9.16

Monday’s nine-game slate yielded four wins by relievers, though one was accompanied by a blown save (Jhoan Duran), and secured four saves while suffering four losses. Here are the saves in condensed form:

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For the save streamers:

Vulture Save Option for September 16

  • Matt Strahm (PHI): After clinching the division, the Phillies may not overwork Jhoan Duran and avoid back-to-back outings ahead of the playoffs. 

Doubleheader Options

  • Atlanta: Pierce Johnson
  • Washington: Clayton Beeter

Here are the leverage events of interest from Monday.

Leverage Ledger

Baltimore Orioles – Securing an “old-school” save, Dietrich Enns logged three scoreless frames, retiring all nine batters faced, four via strikeout, finishing a three-run win over the White Sox while recording his second save. He threw 32 pitches (71.8% strike rate) and produced eight whiffs (25 SwStr%).

This represents his first save since August 14 and the fourth of his career.

  • Kade Strowd posted his fifth hold, striking out two during a scoreless sixth. 

Hierarchy Remains: *Keegan Akin | *Rico Garcia | *Yennier Cano

*= closer-by-committee

Chicago Cubs – Pressed into action with the bases loaded and two outs at the bottom of the ninth, Brad Keller recorded a game-ending strikeout, preserving the combined shutout and securing his second save. He only needed four pitches (75% strike rate) and induced two whiffs (50 SwStr%) while facing Jared Triolo. This marks his first save since August 16 and reinforced his status as the team’s highest-leveraged reliever with Daniel Palencia on the injured list.

  • Porter Hodge allowed a hit and two walks while recording two outs at the bottom of the ninth before being removed.
  • Michael Soroka tossed two scoreless frames, walking and striking out two.

Speaking of Palencia, this update was posted by Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports:

Hierarchy Remains: *Andrew Kittredge | *Brad Keller | Caleb Thielbar

*= closer-by-committee

Cincinnati Reds –  Closing out a five-run lead, Emilio Pagán allowed a hit and recorded a strikeout during a scoreless bottom of the ninth against the Cardinals.

  • Connor Phillips collected his third win, retiring the side and striking out two in the eighth, ahead of his team’s four-run rally at the top of the ninth.
  • Tony Santillan let both inherited runners score, giving up two hits during one-third of the seventh. He was not awarded the win because he turned in a brief and ineffective outing, but did get tagged with his fourth blown save. 

Hierarchy Remains: Emilio Pagán | Tony Santillan | Nick Martinez

Houston Astros – Despite a traffic-infused top of the ninth, Bryan Abreu held on for his sixth save, navigating around a lead-off single with a double play groundout, followed by a walk and a two-out single before a game-ending fielder’s choice groundout, preserving the three-run victory. He finished with two hits and a walk during a scoreless ninth, throwing 12 pitches (50% strike rate) without a whiff.

  • Bryan King logged 1.2 scoreless innings, yielding a hit and recording his 27th hold.
  • Jayden Murray allowed two hits during one-third of the seventh, getting credit for his first hold.
  • Steven Okert collected his third win, stranding two runners at the top of the fifth, and retiring all four batters, three via strikeout.

Hierarchy Remains: Bryan Abreu | Bryan King | Enyel De Los Santos

Los Angeles Dodgers – Summoned at the top of the tenth, Blake Treinen intentionally walked Bryce Harper with one out, followed by a double steal by the “place” runner, Harrison Bader, and Harper, ahead of a go-ahead sacrifice fly by J.T. Realmuto, resulting in his fifth loss.

Tanner Scott kept his team within one at the top of the tenth, retiring the side and striking out one against the Phillies’ 9-1-2 lineup pocket, throwing 10 pitches (90% strike rate) with one whiff.

He has been scoreless in four of his last five.

  • Alex Vesia gave up Harper’s solo home run and a walk while striking out one in the seventh.
  • Jack Dreyer suffered his second blown save, allowing two hits and two earned runs while striking out one during the sixth.

Things are much different this year with the postseason on the horizon for the defending World Champions. In 2024, Dave Roberts pulled all the right strings, matching up his relievers by lineup lanes. However, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register shared in this column, the leverage ladder has struggled in the second half:

Updated Hierarchy: *Tanner Scott | *Blake Treinen | Michael Kopech

*= closer-by-committee

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies – Summoned at the bottom of the tenth with a one-run lead, David Robertson navigated around two walks, one intentional (Freddie Freeman), for a scoreless outing and his first save of the season, and first since July 24, 2024. He induced a lead-off groundout, walked Freeman, walked Alex Call, then induced a pop-out by Miguel Rojas, followed by a game-ending groundout against Max Muncy.

Jhoan Duran could not preserve a one-run lead at the bottom of the ninth, giving up a game-tying solo home run by Andy Pages and a walk (Shohei Ohtani) while striking out one during his fourth blown save. However, he collected his seventh win courtesy of his team’s rally at the top of the tenth. He threw 22 pitches (59.1% strike rate) and induced three whiffs (13.6 SwStr%), snapping his eight-game scoreless streak, during which he converted seven saves.

  • Matt Strahm notched his 21st hold, firing a clean eighth and striking out two.
  • Orion Kerkering was tagged with his seventh blown save, allowing a game-tying home run by Mookie Betts, and recorded three strikeouts in the seventh.

Hierarchy Remains: Jhoan Duran | Matt Strahm | David Robertson

Tampa Bay Rays – With the game tied at the top of the 11th, Kevin Kelly allowed the “place” runner to score on George Springer’s RBI single, resulting in his fourth loss.

  • Griffin Jax fired a clean tenth, striking out two on nine pitches (88.9% strike rate) with four whiffs (44.4 SwStr%).
  • Pete Fairbanks retired the side in the ninth.
  • Bryan Baker was tagged with his sixth blown save, allowing a hit and an earned run while striking out one, snapping his 10-game scoreless streak.
  • Garrett Cleavinger notched his 21st hold, tossing a clean seventh and striking out two. 

Hierarchy Remains: Pete Fairbanks | Edwin Uceta | Bryan Baker

Toronto Blue JaysAnother herculean effort by Braydon Fisher sealed a one-run margin, resulting in his seventh win, third in the last four days. He logged two scoreless frames, allowing an infield single by Yandy Díaz and striking out four on 27 pitches (70.4% strike rate) with six whiffs (22.2 SwStr%).

  • Jeff Hoffman worked a scoreless ninth, walking one and striking out two. He threw 18 pitches (50% strike rate) and generated five whiffs (27.8 SwStr%), posting his fifth scoreless outing through six games this month.
  • Louis Varland tossed a scoreless eighth, walking and striking out one.
  • Seranthony Domínguez fired a clean seventh, striking out one.

Hierarchy Remains: Jeff Hoffman | Seranthony Domínguez | Yariel Rodríguez

Quick Hits

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: Sealing a seven-run lead, Jalen Beeks fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded a strikeout against the Giants’ 2-3-4 lineup pocket. Taylor Rashi logged two scoreless frames, issuing a walk and striking out three.
  • Chicago White Sox: Taking over at the top of the sixth, Steven Wilson allowed a walk, resulting in an earned run and his second loss. Tyler Alexander replaced him with two outs and a runner on. He gave up three hits, including a three-run home run by Colton Cowser, putting two earned runs on his ledger during one-third of an inning.
  • Minnesota Twins: Completing a combined shutout, Pierson Ohl retired the side and recorded a strikeout at the top of the ninth. Could he be earning more leverage opportunities?
  • San Francisco Giants: Entering at the bottom of the fifth, Matt Gage suffered his first loss, allowing a hit, an earned run, and a walk. In all, the four relievers gave up a combined six earned runs on seven hits and three walks over the last four innings in Arizona.
  • St. Louis Cardinals: Ryan Fermandez suffered his fourth loss, giving up a hit, an earned run, and two walks during one-third of the eighth. Kyle Leahy stranded two of three runners in the eighth, but allowed four hits, four earned runs, and a walk while striking out two during his combined inning of relief.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net