Wednesday’s slate had another weather postponement but still yielded eight wins for relievers and four saves against five losses. A blown save accompanied one win (Bryan Baker) during an extra-inning contest in Milwaukee. As for the saves:
| Reliever | Save # | Pitches | Strike% | SwStr% | K:BB |
| Andrés Muñoz | 16 | 16 | 56.3 | 18.8 | 0:0 |
| Taner Scott | 10 | 14 | 85.7 | 14.3 | 2:0 |
| Dennis Santana | 5 | 12 | 83.3 | 25 | 2:0 |
| Daniel Palencia | 1 | 13 | 61.5 | 7.7 | 0:0 |
Unlike the weather patterns near me, a light forecast for vulture saves:
Vulture Save Options for May 22
- Andrew Kittredge (BAL): Bautista appeared on consecutive days for the first time yesterday and will be unavailable today, and potentially tomorrow in Boston.
- Devin Williams (NYY): Weaver has pitched in back-to-back games, albeit only eight pitches total, but this does not account for warm-up tosses getting ready. Aaron Boone prefers not to use relievers in three consecutive contests.
Three Takeaways
(1) Megill and pending regression: Entering at the top of the tenth against Baltimore, Trevor Megill gave up two hits and an unearned run. He threw nine pitches (77.8 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s posted a 1.24 WHIP with 17 strikeouts over 15.1 innings. When viewing his underlying data at Fangraphs, there are no discernible differences in his contact rates allowed or swinging strike percentage. However, when one notes his 2.35 ERA has a 3.77 SIERA and a 5.73 xERA, there may be reason for concern. Since xERA accounts for quality of contact, here are his updated batted ball results since 2022:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ry1Y0/2/
Given his good contact rate of 30 percent this year, compared to a poor contact rate of 15 percent, combined with his 13.8 K-BB percentage, this should raise some concern. In yesterday’s outing, here were his pitch illustrator results:
His four-seam fastball currently has a .348 xBA and a .462 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). His contact struggles will persist if he falls behind in counts and is forced to throw pitches in the strike zone. It’s why Abner Uribe remains on our stash lists for future saves.
Hierarchy Remains: Trevor Megill | Abner Uribe | Nick Mears
(2) Luke Jackson edging toward the hot seat: He recorded his last save on April 25 and has not had many opportunities since, whether it’s game flow or being sidelined by a comeback line drive off his arm. He’s allowed at least a run in three of his seven appearances since the 25th, with two of his six hits allowed being home runs. Over his last four innings since April 27, he’s suffered two losses, including last night’s walk-off in New York, while recording five strikeouts against five walks with a 2.75 WHIP. It’s a limited sample, but he has a 63.6 hard-hit percentage and a Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage of 90 percent, which one can observe in this rolling game chart from Fangraphs:
With Chris Martin on the injured list and Robert Garcia struggling in recent appearances, there is no clear replacement on the roster. Shawn Armstong filled in for two saves but has inherent risk as a high-leverage option. It was intimated during the spring Jon Gray could have been an option at closer and this may resurface as he nears a return in three to four weeks. Another name worth tracking may be Kumar Rocker. He’s struggled to remain healthy as a starting pitcher but could cut his teeth for the remainder of the season as a high-leverage reliever. This may be fluid soon, but planning on Jackson as the closer in mid-June may be a mistake.
Hierarchy remains: Luke Jackson | Robert Garcia | Shawn Armstrong
(3) “The Mountain” works in back-to-back games: Félix Bautista made his first appearance on consecutive days since returning from Tommy John surgery, but it did not go as planned. He issued a one-out walk, followed by another with two outs, and Caleb Durbin’s game-tying RBI single, handing him his first blown save. Bautista threw 24 pitches (45.8 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). Here is his pitch illustrator:
He’s allowed at least a run in four straight games since posting a save on May 9. In these 3.2 innings, he has allowed two home runs among his five hits, five earned runs, and five walks while striking out three. Of more significant concern, he’s only thrown 50 percent of his pitches as strikes. For the season, he has a 43.8 first-strike percentage, down almost 15 percent compared to 2023 and his 9.4 K-BB% and 1.43 WHIP are hurting his fantasy managers. How he responds in June may be telling about his rest-of-the-season statistics.
Updated Hierarchy: Félix Bautista | Andrew Kittredge | Gregory Soto
Here are the remaining leverage events of interest from Wednesday.
Closer CliffsNotes
Chicago Cubs – Handed a one-run lead, Daniel Palencia shut the door on his first save, retiring the side against Miami’s 6-7-8 lineup pocket. He threw 13 pitches (8 strikes – 61.5 Strike%) and induced one whiff.
He’s been the preferred save choice since Porter Hodge was placed on the injured list and has been scoreless in 11 of his last 12 games with a 0.917 WHIP and 13 strikeouts against five walks.
- Brad Keller collected his first win, retiring all four batters faced and stranded a runner with a double play groundout during his 1.2 clean frames.
- Caleb Thielbar worked a scoreless combined inning and issued a walk.
Adjusted Hierarchy: *Daniel Palencia | *Brad Keller | *Drew Pomeranz
*= closer-by-committee
Cleveland Guardians – (SSP Game) – Cade Smith entered a tied game at the bottom of the ninth and allowed a hit batter, then two hits, including Kody Clemens’ walk-off RBI double, resulting in his second loss.
During the regularly scheduled contest, Emmanuel Clase worked around a hit and finished a four-run win with a scoreless bottom of the ninth. He threw 15 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s allowed one unearned run during seven appearances in May with seven strikeouts versus two walks.
- Hunter Gaddis retired the side and recorded one strikeout for his 12th hold in the eighth.
- Tim Herrin issued a walk and tossed a scoreless seventh, securing his eighth hold.
Hierarchy Remains: Emmanuel Clase | Cade Smith | Hunter Gaddis
Los Angeles Angels – Taking over at the bottom of the seventh with two runners on and no outs, Héctor Neris retired The Athletics’ 9-1-2 hitters in order on eight pitches (75 Strike%) without a whiff. He was awarded his second win as a result.
- Ryan Zeferjahn recorded his seventh hold, giving up a hit and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
- Connor Brogdon closed the five-run victory with a clean bottom of the ninth.
Hierarchy Remains: Kenley Jansen | Héctor Neris | Ryan Zeferjahn
Los Angeles Dodgers – Locking down his tenth save, Tanner Scott fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts, preserving a two-run win over Arizona. He threw 14 pitches (85.7 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (14.3 SwStr%).
He has a 0.81 WHIP with 25 strikeouts versus one walk (28.6 K-BB%) through 23.1 innings.
- Lou Trivino notched his second hold, logging 1.1 clean frames and striking out one.
- Jack Dreyer allowed two hits and recorded two outs at the top of the seventh, getting credit for his third hold.
Hierarchy Remains: Tanner Scott | Ben Casparius | Alex Vesia
Minnesota Twins – During the conclusion of the suspended game from Monday, Jhoan Durán could not stem the tide at the top of the ninth, letting both inherited runners score. He took over with no outs and two runners on and induced a groundout followed by Nolan Jones’ RBI single, then moved runners into scoring position with a wild pitch. After recording a strikeout, Durán gave up Bo Naylor’s game-tying RBI double before an inning-ending groundout, resulting in his first blown save. However, he collected his second win courtesy of a walk-off rally at the bottom of the inning. He threw 23 pitches (14 strikes – 60.9 Strike%) and induced three whiffs.
He has a 1.07 WHIP with 26 strikeouts versus nine walks (18.3 K-BB%) through 22.1 innings.
Hierarchy Remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Louis Varland
New York Yankees – Remaining efficient, Luke Weaver entered at the top of the ninth with a runner on first and no outs. He retired Wyatt Langford on a lineout and Josh Jung on a flyout and benefited from an inning-ending caught stealing, stranding his runner. Weaver collected his first win courtesy of a walk-off home run. He threw six pitches (66.7 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s recorded two saves and a win in his last three appearances while throwing 10 pitches between them. On the season, he’s posted a 0.55 WHIP with 22 strikeouts versus six walks (20.2 K-BB%) through 21.2 innings.
Updated Hierarchy: Luke Weaver | Devin Williams | Jonathan Loásiga
Pittsburgh Pirates – Securing his fifth save, Dennis Santana retired the side and recorded two strikeouts while finishing a two-run win in Cincinnati. He threw 12 pitches (83.3 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (25 SwStr%) against the 4-5-6 lineup pocket.
He’s been scoreless in 10 of his last 11 appearances with a 0.68 WHIP and nine strikeouts against zero walks through 10.1 innings.
- Caleb Ferguson notched his sixth hold, logging 1.1 clean frames and striking out one.
- Tanner Rainey recorded two outs and hit a batter for his first hold in the seventh.
- Chase Shugart worked a scoreless sixth, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one for his second hold.
Hierarchy Remains: *David Bednar | *Dennis Santana | Caleb Ferguson
*= match-up-based approach
Seattle Mariners – Recording his MLB-leading 16th save, Andrés Muñoz navigated around Andrew Vaughn’s lead-off single by retiring the next three White Sox batters, preserving the one-run margin. He threw 16 pitches (9 strikes – 56.3 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%).
He owns a 0.74 WHIP with 28 strikeouts against eight walks (23.3 K-BB%) across 21.2 innings.
- Carlos Vargas tossed a clean bottom of the eighth and recorded a strikeout for his sixth hold.
- Casey Legumina collected his fourth win. He gave up a hit, an earned run, and a walk while striking out two during the bottom of the seventh.
Hierarchy Remains: Andrés Muñoz | Casey Legumina | Matt Brash
Tampa Bay Rays -Closing a four-run win, Pete Fairbanks tossed a scoreless top of the ninth, allowing a hit and striking out two. He threw 20 pitches (55 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He last recorded a save on May 4 and has posted a 1.20 WHIP with 20 strikeouts through 20 innings.
- Edwin Uceta was credited with his seventh hold despite giving up two solo home runs and recording two strikeouts in the eighth.
- Garrett Cleavinger notched his fifth hold, firing a clean seventh while striking out one.
Hierarchy Remains: Pete Fairbanks | Edwin Uceta | Mason Montgomery
Quick Hits
- Boston Red Sox: After retiring both batters at the top of the sixth via strikeout, Liam Hendriks suffered his first loss, giving up three hits, resulting in three earned runs during the seventh. Brennan Bernardino let all three inherited runners score, yielding a hit and a walk.
- Colorado Rockies: Appearing in a loss, Zach Agnos retired the Phillies’ 6-7-8 lineup pocket in order on six pitches (83.3 Strike%) without a whiff.
- Detroit Tigers: Against St. Louis, Chase Lee took over at the bottom of the fourth and logged two clean frames while recording two strikeouts. As a result, he was awarded his first win.
- Kansas City Royals: Appearing with a six-run lead, Lucas Erceg allowed two hits, including Heliot Ramos’ two-run home run and a walk, while striking out one during the bottom of the ninth. This snapped his 12-game scoreless streak, but he’s still posted a 0.65 WHIP with 16 strikeouts over 21.2 innings. As the first reliever out of the bullpen, Jonathan Bowlan collected his first career win, logging 1.1 innings across the second and third innings, giving up two hits and an earned run while striking out one.
- Miami Marlins: With the score tied at the top of the eighth, Anthony Bender issued Matt Shaw a lead-off walk, a leverage mortal sin, induced a flyout, and allowed the game-winning run score on Kyle Tucker’s RBI single, resulting in his third loss.
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