Spring Vibes, March 16: Jansen debut, Injury Updates, and Game Recaps

Boston Red SoxOne cannot overreact to a veteran reliever’s spring debut. Kenley Jansen recorded two outs, served up two solo home runs, and sat between 91-to-94 m.p.h. per the game recap by Sean McAdam for MassLive. Jansen noted his feel for the “cutter” will arrive before Opening Day and was encouraged by his velocity during his first appearance this spring in this tweet by Ian Browne of MLB.com. This game did not have Statcast available. By my count watching his outing, he threw 17 pitches (13 strikes – 76.5 strike percentage) and did not induce any whiffs. Chris Martin will throw live batting practice on Saturday. Any setback for either reliever would put their availability on Opening Day in question.

Hierarchy, for now, remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski

Los Angeles Angels – At long last, an update regarding Robert Stephenson, but not one fantasy players like seeing. He’s trending toward missing Opening Day with lingering shoulder soreness per Jeff Fletcher in this tweet on “X”. Once the discomfort in the shoulder subsides, the reliever will resume his throwing regimen. It had been radio silence regarding his buildup, and Ron Washington remains optimistic about his return, but it’s best planning on an early injured list stint as a precautionary move.

Updated Hierarchy: Carlos Estévez | Matt Moore | Luis García

Chicago White Sox – Good news about a talented young reliever. Prelander Berroa threw a side session on Friday, and will be on pace to “crank it up” per manager, Pedro Grifol, reported on Twitter by Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. No timeline accompanied this report, and shoulder issues can be tricky.

This Hierarchy remains a committee: *John Brebbia | *Michael Kopech | *Jordan Leasure

Milwaukee Brewers –  While fantasy players focus on who will get the first save chance for the Brewers this season, discerning the timeline for Devin Williams may be more difficult than the three months in the initial report. Jack Magruder went into the timeline for his return on MLB.com. A key part of this article, Williams said when his back issue flared up, he started compensating and his shoulder was sore in new places after his outing. Forecasting his return data may not be a straight line preposition, any setback in his throwing program after his six-week shutdown must be monitored closely. 

Hierarchy remains a committee: *Joel Payamps | *Abner Uribe | *Trevor Megill

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 15)

Detroit TigersJason Foley worked a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit and striking out three. He threw 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) and induced four whiffs (23.5 SwStr%). This marked his first outing in eight days.

Houston AstrosJosh Hader turned in a scoreless outing, walking one and striking out one. He’s made five spring appearances, posting a 0.60 WHIP with four strikeouts versus two walks.

Kansas City Royals – During a loss, Will Smith fired a clean fifth. This marked his fifth outing and he owns a 1.20 WHIP with three strikeouts against two walks over five innings.

Washington NationalsHunter Harvey notched his third hold, giving up a hit and striking out one in a scoreless seventh. He threw 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). Through six spring outings, he owns a 1.11 WHIP with 10 strikeouts against one walk over 6.1 innings.

Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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Spring Vibes, March 15: More Milwaukee Leverage Plans without Devin Williams, Kopech in the White Sox bullpen, Helsley’s velocity, and Game Recaps

Milwaukee Brewers –  As anticipated, Brewers GM, Matt Arnold hinted at a committee for saves in this video interview on “X” shared by Curt Hogg, with results over the next two weeks of spring contests perhaps laying the groundwork for roles once the season begins. However, there was no definitive answer, which means this should be considered a committee until the team announces otherwise. 

In Hogg’s column for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, he named Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill as candidates for save chances while Devin Williams will be sidelined. This included the quotes by manager Pat Murphy sounding like he prefers “remaining flexible” with his late-inning options. This does not help fantasy players seeking clarity, especially when mining saves off the waiver wire.

For a different perspective, Jack Magruder focused on Payamps and Uribe for MLB.com covering how Milwaukee will structure its bullpen without Williams. It also included quotes from Murphy not wanting to name a replacement for his team’s All-Star closer. With things trending toward a committee, weigh upcoming performances this spring, and how the new manager deploys his relievers during the first week of contests.

Hierarchy remains a committee: *Joel Payamps | *Abner Uribe | *Trevor Megill

Chicago White Sox – Although there was an update yesterday regarding Michael Kopech being placed into the bullpen, there have been some interesting notes since. Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reported the starter had been demoted and in his column mused about if being the “closer” may be in Kopech’s future.

Kopech said he would be interested in the role, but shared he understands he must improve on his consistency before worrying about his spot in the leverage ladder. In a separate tweet, Chuck Garfien shared quotes from pitching coach, Ethan Katz, saying an aggressive approach by the newly transformed reliever may improve his outcomes, and provide save chances for a team presently without a “closer“. Stay tuned, this seems like a developing situation, especially while fantasy await a spring appearance by John Brebbia.

Projected hierarchy: *John Brebbia | *Jordan Leasure | *Michael Kopech

St. Louis Cardinals – A misguided tweet by John Denton reported Ryan Helsley fired a clean outing on Thursday, recording two strikeouts, but “topped” out at 93.8 m.p.h. with his four-seam fastball. It was his minimum velocity with the pitch in this appearance, but he remains 4.4 m.p.h. below his average speed versus last year. Earlier this spring, Helsley said he was not throwing as hard early in camp hoping it will keep him healthier this season. With Opening Day less than two weeks away, he should start ramping up in preparations, so it will be monitored. Here’s his player breakdown from Statcast:

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 14)

Atlanta Braves – Taking over in the fifth inning, Raisel Iglesias retired the side in order while striking out one. This marked his fourth outing this spring and he owns a 1.50 WHIP with five strikeouts over four innings.

Baltimore Orioles – Collecting his first win this spring, Craig Kimbrel tossed a scoreless sixth, allowing a hit and striking out one. He threw 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). He’s rounding into form, turning in consecutive scoreless appearances.

Cincinnati Reds – During an eventual loss, Alexis Díaz held on for a scoreless third, issuing two walks and striking out one. Through three spring appearances, he’s posted a 1.33 WHIP with five strikeouts and two walks.

Cleveland Guardians – Rough outing for Emmanuel Clase. He allowed four hits, including a home run, resulting in three earned runs. He also recorded two strikeouts against the Rockies. After starting strong this spring, this game moved his WHIP to an uncomfortable 1.60, but we focus on his nine strikeouts versus one walk through five innings.

Detroit Tigers – Securing his first spring hold, Andrew Chafin fired a clean fifth, striking out the side on 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) and producing five whiffs (35.7 SwStr%). Shelby Miller worked a scoreless sixth, walking one and striking out two. He threw 19 pitches (9 strikes – 47.4 Strike%) with one whiff. Alex Lange tossed a scoreless seventh, walking one while throwing 18 pitches (10 strikes – 55.6 Strike%) and getting one whiff. He’s made four appearances this spring, producing a 1.75 WHIP with seven strikeouts against two walks.

Milwaukee Brewers – With leverage roles at stake moving forward, Elvis Peguero suffered his first loss, giving up three hits and two earned runs in the fifth. Joel Payamps served up a solo home run (Luis Urías) in the sixth. Abner Uribe fired a clean seventh, striking out two.

Philadelphia Phillies – Entering in the fifth, José Alvarado turned in a scoreless outing, giving up a hit and striking out one. He threw 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) and produced five whiffs (31.3 SwStr%). Through five appearances, he owns a 1.00 WHIP with four strikeouts against one walk. Jeff Hoffman navigated around three hits and recorded two strikeouts in a scoreless sixth, throwing 22 pitches (90.9 Strike%) with five whiffs (22.7 SwStr%). He’s logged five outings this spring posting a 1.50 WHIP with four strikeouts versus two walks over 4.2 innings.

Pittsburgh Pirates –  Recording his second hold, Aroldis Chapman retired the side in order in the sixth, throwing 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s made five appearances this spring, posting a 1.00 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus one walk.

Closer Monkey’s filthy sequence of the day features an overlay of Adam Ottavino‘s arsenal by the Pitching Ninja.

Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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Spring Vibes, March 14: Devin Williams bombshell, Bednar update, White Sox trade, and Game Recaps

Milwaukee Brewers – Jeff Passan dropped a bombshell with Devin Williams having two stress fractures in his back, which will put him on the shelf for three months (shut down six weeks and rehab for six weeks). The team has not confirmed the diagnosis, but it sends this leverage ladder into a tailspin. Ultimately, Pat Murphy will determine the plan for the late-innings. Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and Joel Payamps will be in the mix. Returning from injury last year, Megill posted a 1.18 WHIP with a 28:5 K:BB his last 15 appearances over 17 innings. Payamps tied for second in holds (28) in the National League last season, and Uribe was scoreless in 27 of 32 outings as a rookie. It’s a tough situation for a franchise in flux. Curt Hogg, of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, put Payamps and Uribe atop his short list for save chances, but intimated it could be a committee until one reliever emerges with the role

In the second half, Payamps owned a 17.6 K-BB percentage, with a 1.16 WHIP, and 3.61 SIERA, which align more closely with his projections for 2024. He recorded 11 holds and two blown saves with a 4-4 record over 28.1 innings. On the season, he owned a 10.8 swinging strike percentage, a 74.8 percent contact rate allowed, and a 62.7 strike percentage. His ability of stranding inherited runners may work against him, like it did for Hector Neris in Houston when Ryan Pressly was injured and Rafael Montero emerged with the closer role. As Hogg suggests in his post, Payamps could be a preferred option for saves early on, but until Murphy goes on record, it’s speculating.

Uribe turned in a very good rookie season, and in the second half recorded a 14.3 K-BB percentage, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 4.17 SIERA. His stuff flashes when he’s on, but he can also struggle commanding his arsenal. Despite this, he registered a win, eight holds, and suffered one blown save after the All-Star break last year. For the season, he owned a 12.3 swinging strike percentage, a 69.5 percent contact rate allowed, and 59.2 strike percentage. He could emerge with the save share based on a strong finish this spring, or if Payamps struggles in high-leverage events early on. Uribe’s the “closer” of the future for this franchise.

Megill could be a waiver wire option or a sneaky stash play. His 34.7 K-BB percentage in the second half occurred in a limited sample (18 innings), but was slightly above his teammate Williams (33 percent). He averaged 99.1 m.p.h. with his four-seam fastball last year and also features a knuckle-curve which produced a 53.5 whiff rate per Statcast. He has the stuff, but not a proven track record. Hopefully clarity emerges later today from the team, and especially Murphy on his plans with Williams sidelined.

Updated hierarchy, a projected committee: *Joel Payamps | *Abner Uribe | *Trevor Megill

Pittsburgh Pirates –  Although there’s no definitive timeline provided, Jason Mackey provided an update regarding David Bednar in his injury report from Pirates camp for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Bednar’s been throwing from 120 feet and he will throw off a mound in the “coming days”. 

Chicago White Sox – Potentially shaking up the leverage ladder, Steven Wilson will be one of the four players acquired in the Dylan Cease trade, and will enter the bullpen hierarchy based on his experience. Last year, he recorded 22 holds with a 1.17 WHIP, and 13.7 K-BB percentage over 52 games, spanning 53 innings.

From Wednesday’s game action, Jordan Leasure logged two scoreless frames, walking two and striking out to. This marked his sixth straight scoreless appearance this spring. He owns a 0.86 WHIP with nine strikeouts against four walks over seven innings. He remains a reliever of interest in this barren bullpen.

(Post updated at 12:30 EST) Why remain static after a trade? General Manager Chris Getz said Michael Kopech will be in the bullpen on Opening Day per this tweet by James Fegan. This once again reshuffles the hierarchy since he has pitched as a reliever previously in 2021. He recorded 13 holds and suffered one blown save in 40 relief appearances with an 80:21 K:BB (25.2 K-BB percentage), and a 1.23 WHIP. Using his results from Baseball Reference, he recorded 15 high-leverage outings and recorded more than three outs 16 times. Now we await for his role. High-leverage or multi-inning bridge? 

Updated Hierarchy: John Brebbia | Jordan Leasure | Michael Kopech

New York Mets –  No reason for panic, Anthony DiComo reported Edwin Díaz will be away from the team for a couple of days, being present for the birth of his child. This will not affect his schedule or readiness for Opening Day. 

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 13)

Houston AstrosJosh Hader fired a clean sixth, striking out one on 14 pitches (8 strikes – 57.1 Strike percentage) with two whiffs (14.3 swinging strike percentage). He’s made four appearances this spring, posting a 0.50 WHIP with three strikeouts over four innings.

Kansas City Royals – Collecting his first win this spring, Nick Anderson tossed a scoreless sixth, yielding a hit. He’s appeared in five games and posted a 1.20 WHIP with three strikeouts versus one walk. James McArthur notched his first hold, giving up a hit and striking out two in a scoreless seventh. This marked his sixth outing and he owns a 0.68 WHIP with 10 strikeouts against one walk over 7.1 innings.

Los Angeles AngelsCarlos Estévez fired a clean ninth, striking out one. Through five contests, he’s posted a 1.00 WHIP with two strikeouts and no walks. 

Minnesota TwinsJhoan Durán fired a clean sixth, striking out one on 12 pitches (66.7 Strike percentage) with one whiff. Most encouraging, his velocity rose during this outing.

San Diego Padres In the team’s last tuneup before leaving for South Korea, Yuki Matsui secured his first spring hold, giving up a hit and striking out two in a scoreless eighth inning. He’s made two appearances this spring, recording five of his six outs via strikeout.

Seattle Mariners – Despite allowing an earned run on two hits, Andrés Muñoz received credit for his second hold and recorded two strikeouts in the fourth inning. He’s made four appearances this spring, posting a 0.75 WHIP with five strikeouts and zero walks.

Closer Monkey’s filthy sequence of the day, Bryan Abreu.

Our first division preview was posted yesterday, featuring the American League East.

Until next time, stay safe and be well.

American League East 2024 Preview

March 13, 2024

Baltimore Orioles – As a team last year, the Orioles finished second in the American League in saves, fueled by the breakout season turned in by Félix Bautista. He will miss the season after undergoing elbow surgery, but all will not be lost for the franchise. Craig Kimbrel signed as a free agent and will take over as the primary save share. He finished third in strikeouts among qualified relievers in the National League in 2023 and converted 23 of 28 save chances for the Phillies. Yennier Cano will operate as the eighth inning option, and will often take on the toughest lineup pockets on opposing teams. He logged 72 appearances last year and tied for the major-league lead in holds (31). Getting Dillon Tate back and using Danny Coulombe versus left-handed pockets will enhance the bridge options for the upcoming season.

With this in mind, here’s the team’s high-leverage results over the last three years:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Dillon Tate

Primary Holds Candidates: Cano, Coulombe, Mike Baumann, Keegan Akin

Boston Red Sox After tipping their hand about potentially trading Kenley Jansen, he remains a Red Sox as of this writing. He will open the season as their “closer” unless a last-minute deal occurs. Even though he missed time down the stretch, he went 29-for-33 in save opportunities last year (87.9 save percentage) and he’s tied for ninth all-time with nine seasons with 30 or more saves. How he performs early on may set his trade market. He’s an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Chris Martin played Robin to Jansen’s Batman well last year, recording a team-high 23 holds along with three saves, and 46 strikeouts against eight walks over 51.1 innings. His 1.03 WHIP makes him an alluring target in leagues with holds or SOLDS categories. With eyes on the future, the team signed Liam Hendriks. He plans on returning near the Trade Deadline (August 2), but how much and in what situations Boston deploys him in will be determined as the season progresses.

Here’s Boston’s high-leverage results since 2021:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski

Primary Holds Candidates: Martin, Winckowski, Isaiah Campbell, Brennan Bernardino, Justin Slaten, Greg Weissert

New York Yankees – This bullpen may lean heavily on Clay Holmes early on this year. He turned in a career-high 24 saves last season and finished strong being scoreless in 12 of his last 13 outings. His 66 appearances in 2023 represent the second most in his career and he will utilize his 64.8 ground ball percentage in leverage events. However, getting him to save situations may be a weak link for this bullpen. Tommy Kahnle will open the season on the injured list and oft injured Jonathan Loáisiga projects as the main set-up option early on. One bright spot will be Ian Hamilton. He will take over the vacated multi-inning role filled by Michael King last year, and has shoved so far this spring. In deeper formats, he will retain value by providing vulture wins, ancillary saves, and strikeout upside.

Since 2021, here’s how this leverage ladder has performed in high-leverage events:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Clay Holmes | Jonathan Loáisiga | Ian Hamilton

Primary Holds Candidates: Loáisiga, Caleb Ferguson, Nick Burdi

Tampa Bay Rays – It happened, the Rays stopped spreading the wealth in the bullpen and relied upon Pete Fairbanks as their “closer” when he was not on the injured list. He set career highs in appearances (49), innings (45.1), strikeouts (68), and saves (25). He also ranked seventh among American League relievers with an 86.2 save percentage. His save total represented the most by a Tampa Bay reliever since Sergio Romo recorded 25 in 2018. Setting him up affably, and filling in as the “closer” when necessary, Jason Adam remains a rock in this leverage ladder. Through 117.2 innings with the Rays, he ons a 0.875 WHIP with 144 strikeouts versus 37 walks, and secured 20 saves. Colin Poche led all relievers with 12 wins last season, but it’s a tough feat to repeat. He’s only the sixth reliever in team history with consecutive 65-plus game seasons.

Taking all of this in, here’s the teams high-leverage results since 2021:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

Primary Holds Candidates: Adam, Poche, Shawn Armstrong, Garrett Cleavinger

Toronto Blue Jays – Anchoring a deep, and pliable leverage ladder, Jordan Romano has recorded 36 saves in back-to-back seasons. He accomplished this total despite missing 18 days with back inflammation during the second half. His durability will determine his ceiling for 2024, along with how he handles left-handed hitters, but from a saves standpoint, he remains a reliable source. Erik Swanson set career-bests in games (69), innings (66.2), and strikeouts (75) in his first season with Toronto. He also finished third in the American League with 29 holds. Tim Mayza, Yimi García, Chad Green, and Trevor Richards will also factor as bridge relievers this year.

Here’s the Blue Jays high-leverage trends since 2021:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Jordan Romano | Erik Swanson | Yimi García

Primary Holds Candidates: Swanson, García, Tim Mayza, Chad Green, Trevor Richards

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Spring Vibes, March 13: Injury Updates, Colorado’s Closer Competition, Game Recaps and more

With Opening Day (stateside) just over two weeks away, injury news may determine a player’s availability when the season begins. Results in games will vary as well with relievers experiencing a “dead arm” phase in their buildups. Here are the notes of interest from a fantasy perspective.

Milwaukee Brewers – Per Sophia Minnaert of Bally Sport Wisconsin, Devin Williams will see a spine specialist on Wednesday, while the fantasy community holds its collective breath about the severity of his back issues. He will undergo further imaging at his appointment.

Chicago White Sox – For a bullpen already stretched thin on talent, updates on Wednesday did not go well for the leverage ladder. Jimmy Lambert has been experiencing lingering shoulder issues and will see Dr. ElAttrache in Los Angeles for a second opinion. Later on, Daryl Van Schouwen reported Prelander Berroa will be sidelined with an arm/shoulder area issue, with an update pending clarification. On MLB.com’s injuries and roster moves page, manager Pedro Grifol said Berroa pitched with reduced velocity in his last outing against Colorado and will see the team doctors. Less than optimal, unless one prefers taking a “Leasure“-ly approach for targeting saves in this bullpen.

Updated hierarchy for the White Sox: John Brebbia | Jordan Leasure | Tim Hill

Seattle Mariners – In the never ending injury saga for the this leverage ladder, Gregory Santos felt a pinch” in his lat, and will be shut down for a few days, which will keep him sidelined on Opening Day. Daniel Kramer and Ryan Divish broke the news on “X”. 

In a separate column by Daniel Kramer of MLB.com about how Seattle’s bullpen will take shape after Santos’ injury, he speculated Andrés Muñoz will work almost exclusively in the save situations. Because of this, Ryne Stanek will open the season as the primary set-up reliever. However, two relievers may be selected from the “Steckenrider” bucket. 

Updated hierarchy for Seattle: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

These next two teams feature a camp battle for the “closer” role.

Colorado Rockies – As each game passes, the “closer” competition heats up. On Tuesday, Tyler Kinley notched his first hold this spring, firing a clean seventh, striking out one. He threw 11 pitches (54.5 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (18.2 SwStr%). He owns a 0.60 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus two walks over five innings. Justin Lawrence also worked a clean outing in the eighth, recording a strikeout for his second hold on 12 pitches (50 Strike%) with one whiff. He’s made six appearances this spring, posting a 1.17 WHIP with nine strikeouts against one walk through six innings. 

Oakland A’s –  In his latest roster projection for MLB.com, Martín Gallegos wrote Mason Millerlines up as the closer“, with Lucas Erceg, Dany Jiménez, and Trevor Gott all in the mix for high-leverage situations. Until Mark Kotsay confirms Miller’s role, it’s purely speculation. However, the talented pitcher’s outings and eye-popping velocities may result in a reliable reliever in save opportunities. 

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 12)

Baltimore Orioles – Making his third appearance this spring, Yennier Cano retired the side in order, recording two strikeouts. He owns a 0.33 WHIP with five strikeouts against zero walks over three innings. Cionel Pérez navigated around two hits and a walk for a scoreless sixth.

Los Angeles DodgersEvan Phillips worked a scoreless eighth inning, walking one and striking out one. He’s made five appearances this spring, recording a 0.40 WHIP with six strikeouts versus one walk over five innings.

Oakland A’s –  Although he let his only inherited runner score, Dany Jiménez collected his first spring win, giving up a hit and a walk while retiring two batters in the fifth. After five outings this spring, he owns a 1.07 WHIP with five strikeouts against two walks through 4.2 innings.

San Francisco Giants – Getting in work during the fourth inning, Camilo Doval navigated around two hits for a scoreless outing. This marked his fourth outing this spring, he owns a 1.25 WHIP with five strikeouts against two walks over four innings.

Washington NationalsHunter Harvey fired 1.1 clean frames while striking out two. He’s made five spring outings and owns a 1.13 WHIP with a 9:1 K:BB over 5.1 innings. Kyle Finnegan faced two batters, striking both out, in the top of the ninth. He’s logged five appearances and posed a 0.43 WHIP with nine strikeouts against one walk.

Closer Monkey’s filthy outing of the day goes to prospect, Jackson Jobe. He will be a starting pitcher, but recorded his first spring save, turning in a clean ninth, and striking out two while hitting triple digits on the radar.

Until next time, stay safe and be well.

If you are interested in pictures of pitcher’s arsenals, charts, and the articles cited above, sign up for our premium email package for a one-time $20 donation to the site.