This column will focus on paring down What to Watch For into five relievers or situations worth tracking in this weekend’s high-leverage events. Can Jhoan Durán fix his recent spike in home runs allowed? When will Edwin Díaz regain his closer role? Who emerges as the bridge reliever or more in the Cubs bullpen? Will a dark horse emerge in Detroit? Last but not least, what is Evan Phillips‘ timeline?
Durán’s Velocity
The fantasy manager’s frustrations began when Minnesota did not use Jhoan Durán exclusively as a closer upon his return from the injured list. Despite this, he’s converted four saves through his first ten appearances. However, he has given up at least one earned run and a home run in each of his last three games, resulting in two losses and a save.
It may not be solely tied to his reduced velocity, but it’s a contributing factor:
He was still a dominant reliever in 2022 with similar velocities, though this year’s still sit slightly below them. From a game-by-game perspective, they appear as such:
However, it’s not just velocity. He’s also relying more on his curve this season:
With this in mind, here are his splits by pitch this season compared with last year:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XUMFU/4/
It’s a small sample size this year. Fantasy players should monitor Durán’s velocity, pitch usage patterns, and performance moving forward. There’s time for a rebound, but he needs more whiffs and less home runs allowed.
Edwin’s Demotion
He has not appeared since his new manager announced a “fluid” role for his struggling closer. Edwin Díaz was warming during a loss in Cleveland but did not enter the game when his team’s deficit was cut from three to one.
He’s spoken about being frustrated with his command this season, and it’s not always about throwing strikes. It’s sequencing pitches while hitting spots. As of this writing, he owns a 5.50 ERA with a 2.40 SIERA and 2.85 expected ERA (xERA), which provides hope for positive migration toward the mean.
However, his four-seam fastball has been lower in the strike zone, and his splits-by-pitch results illustrate his recent struggles:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Iq3si/3/
Before his prolific run in 2022, he posted a 1.594 WHIP in May with a 5.14 ERA and .200/.310/.440 slash line against. From a fantasy standpoint, his inability to put away batters may be the biggest hurdle before he turns around his season.
When planning his rest-of-the-season outlook, this year’s underlying data aligns with 2021, not 2022. He can still reclaim his role in the ninth inning and be a productive reliever for fantasy; just be realistic about his ceiling and, more importantly, his floor.
Cubs Leverage Ladder
It was trendy to identify Ben Brown as a potential high-leverage reliever. He fits the profile well, but before fantasy players find out, he will reenter the rotation after tossing four scoreless frames against Atlanta. After Seattle designated him for assignment, the Cubs traded for Tyson Miller. He’s made three appearances with his new team and posted 5.1 scoreless frames, giving up two hits and striking out five against zero walks.
For the season, he has a 2.72 SIERA, a 17:1 K:BB (25 K-BB percentage), a 0.647 WHIP, a 15.7 percent swinging strike rate, and a 70 percent strike rate. One caveat: he also owns an 11.4 barrel percentage, allowing five barrels among his 44 batted ball events this year, but his .288 expected weighted on-base average should insulate his results.
He may emerge as the seventh-inning bridge to Mark Leiter Jr. and Héctor Neris, making him valuable for those in leagues with holds or SOLDS.
Porter Hodge will also be an intriguing option, especially for those in dynasty leagues. He made quite an impression by striking out the side in his MLB debut against Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson. One cannot overlook his 19.6 walk percentage at Triple-A before his promotion, but the 23 year old has the stuff of a high-leverage reliever:
He also throws a slider and will need improved command, but could be a factor in save situations as the season progresses.
Detroit’s Dark Horse?
Most relievers do not take a linear pathway during their development. Will Vest could become an effective leverage option, but he’s been inconsistent. However, with Alex Lange‘s demotion to Triple-A, a spot in the late innings has opened up for Vest. Over the last 14 days, he’s appeared in six games, logging 7.2 innings and giving up two earned runs with seven strikeouts against two walks (16.7 K-BB percentage).
He also ranks second on the team during this timeframe in Win Probability Added:
He or Beau Brieske may emerge as a third option in this team’s high-leverage triumvirate; this weekend may provide some insight into how A.J. Hinch plans on deploying them.
Phillips’ timeline
Initial reports suggested Evan Phillips‘ hamstring strain would require a minimal stay on the injured list. It’s not transpired as such, but he will throw a live bullpen session at High-A today and appear in his first rehab outing on Sunday. If he makes two appearances in three days, he could be activated by the middle of next week or by next Friday. Those in weekly leagues may prefer keeping him benched next scoring period, but those in leagues with daily moves should be prepared for his return next week.
What to Watch For (Weekend Edition)
Cincinnati Reds: With consecutive scoreless outings, has Alexis Díaz turned the corner?
Colorado Rockies: Who gets the next save chance for the Rockies? Can Jalen Beeks keep his grip on the closer role?
New York Mets: Which reliever receives the next save chance?
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.
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