American League Central 2024 Preview

Chicago White Sox: Way more questions than answers for the White Sox bullpen coming into 2024. If looking for the most likely reliever to land 10 or more saves, you may consider Michael Kopech. The once highly-touted starter turned emergency reliever is as good a bet as anyone to hit the double-digit mark. Other potential SV leaders include John Brebbia, although the veteran is ailing this spring. Young Jordan Leasure is a deep roster name to monitor too. This situation is best avoided as currently constructed.

Here are the three-year high-leverage results for Chicago:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Steven Wilson | Jordan Leasure

Primary hold candidates: Brebbia, Wilson, Leasure, Tim Hill, Prelander Berroa

Cleveland Guardians: Lock Emmanuel Clase in as a top fantasy option once in 2024. He sits atop the Cleveland depth chart and was the top SV getter in baseball in 2023, with 44. The depth behind Clase, however, will be tested. Veteran Scott Barlow is in the fray, while Sam Hentges‘ finger must remain calm throughout the year. Carlos Carrasco may end up providing high-leverage outings for Cleveland, as well.

Here is how the Guardians high-leverage relievers have fared over the past three seasons:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Emmanuel Clase | Scott Barlow | Nick Sandlin

Primary holds candidates: Barlow, Hentges, Sandlin, Eli Morgan

Detroit Tigers: Command, command, command are the three keys to Alex Lange remaining as the Detroit closer in 2024. Gone are the days when he was the only option in town, as Jason Foley, Beau Briske, and Shelby Miller all pose threats to Lange’s hold on the ninth.

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Alex Lange | Jason Foley | Shelby Miller | Andrew Chafin

Primary holds candidates: Chafin, Foley, Miller, Briske

Kansas City Royals: It’s not sexy, but Will Smith again finds himself in a fantasy-friendly position within the Royals bullpen. Now, it may not last all season, as his fastball is god-awful and James McArthur lurks, but Smith is a near certainty to get the role and a leash pre-trade deadline for KC. There are a few other names of interest including John Schreiber, Nick Anderson, and Chris Stratton.

High leverage results for the past three seasons in Kansas City:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Will Smith | James McArthur(HLR) | John Schreiber | Chris Stratton

Primary holds candidates: Schreiber, Anderson, Stratton, McArthur, John McMillon

Minnesota Twins: A repeat performance in 2024 from Jhoan Durán would make the Twins’ closer a Top 5 relief pitching option. Any progression could have Durán landing as the overall best fantasy reliever this year. The Minnesota bullpen is a collection of powerful arms behind their closer too. Griffin Jax led the team in appearance over the past two seasons, posting a 68:19 K:BB ratio in 2023. While Brock Stewart was unscored upon in 27 of 28 relief appearances.

Below is a look at the Twins high-leverage results over the last three seasons:

Projected 2024 Hierachy: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Brock Stewart

Primary holds candidates: Jax, Stewart, Caleb Thielbar

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Jansen shut down, Alzolay returns

September 30, 2023
Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox announced after last night’s game that Kenley Jansen will be shut down for the season, saying after not pitching for several weeks it wouldn’t be fair to him. This led to Garret Whitlock getting a 2 inning save last night. This means that Josh Winckowski will likely be in line for any save chance today, and Whitlock has a chance at a save on Sunday. John Schreiber fills out the end of the year hierarchy for the Red Sox, who have already started looking to next year.

Updated hierarchy: Winckowski | Whitlock | Schreiber.

Minnesota Twins — With a 1 run lead the Twins turned to Emilio Pagan in the 9th inning. He converted for his first save on the season. Pagan isn’t likely to be in line for any more saves this year, as he is slated to start today’s game, but the Twins will likely take it easy with the back end of their bullpen as they have locked in their playoff position already. 

Hierarchy remains: Duran | Jax | Pagan.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds kept their playoff hopes alive with a 19-2 thrashing of the Cardinals last night. Having secured the game early they gave the ball to rookie Carson Spiers who pitched 3 clean innings for his first career save. Spiers doesn’t usually factor into the late innings plans, and with the Reds needing to win their last 2 games to have any chance to sneak into the post-season expect them to lean heavily on Diaz this weekend. 

Hierarchy remains: Diaz | Gibaut | Sims.

Miami Marlins — Tanner Scott locked up his 11th save on the year last night, but the most important news out of Miami is that they will finish their game against the Mets which was suspended on Thursday as long as it matters for playoff seeding. It could be a play-in inning if things break the wrong way this weekend, but may only be to determine where Miami will be traveling to. Miami had just taken a 1 run lead in the top of the 9th inning, meaning Monday’s resumption will almost certainly be a save situation, If your league counts it (and you need one hero save), pay attention to Tanner Scott’s usage. If Scott pitches today and tomorrow he will have gone 3 in a row, opening the door for a vulture save on Monday. 

Hierarchy remains: Scott | Nardi | Robertson

Chicago Cubs – Adbert Alzolay was activated from the IL on Friday and pitched a clean 8th inning with the Cubs down 1. He is immediately the top choice for the Cubs, who have fallen apart in the last week of the season. Although he should get any save chance that pops up, the Cubs may be in desperation mode and bring him out earlier than the 9th if the situation warrants it.

Updated hierarchy: Alzolay | Merryweather | Cuas.

Vulture Save Watch:

  1. Aaron Bummer (CHW) — Bryan Shaw has pitched 3 in a row.
  2. Trevor Stephan (CLE) — Emmanual Clase has pitched in 2 of 3.
  3. Luis Garcia (SD) — The entire San Diego hierarchy has pitched in 2 of 3, and with the Padres being eliminated last night, they could all see rest this weekend.

For Sunday:

  1. Bryan Abreu (HOU) — Today would be back to back and 3 of 4 for Ryan Pressly
  2. Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) — Today would be 3 of 5 for David Bednar.

Aside from normal workload vulture saves, many teams have nothing to play for and may rest normal hierarchy options. The teams that can still affect their playoff seeding, and are likely to deploy their bullpens normally are:

American League:

  1. Texas Rangers
  2. Toronto Blue Jays
  3. Houston Astros
  4. Seattle Mariners

National League:

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks
  2. Miami Marlins
  3. Cincinnati Reds
  4. Chicago Cubs

Jose Leclerc looks like Texas’s playoff closer

September 28, 2023

Texas Rangers — Aroldis Chapman pitched the eighth with a two-run lead, facing the 8-9-1 hitters in the Angel lineup. Though the Rangers scored three more in the ninth, eliminating the save chance, it was Jose Leclerc who came out for the final inning. We’re going to move Jose to the top of this committee.

Updated hierarchy: *Leclerc | Chapman | Smith.
* = closer-by-committee

Chicago Cubs – It’s not official yet, but Adbert Alzolay believes he’ll be activated from the injured list on Friday. He should immediately return to the closer role, especially after Wednesday’s loss, which included blown saves by Mark Leiter Jr., Julian Merryweather, and Daniel Palencia.

Hierarchy remains: *Merryweather | Cuas | Leiter Jr.
* = closer-by-committee

Philadelphia Phillies — The day after Jose Alvarado and Craig Kimbrel pitched to a blown save, Philly turned to Gregory Soto in the ninth (after using Seranthony Dominguez in the fifth and sixth). Soto struck out the side and can be safely returned to the hierarchy for the final few games.

Updated hierarchy: *Kimbrel | Alvarado | Soto.
* = closer-by-committee

Minnesota Twins — Jhoan Duran was used in the seventh inning of a tight game (and struck out the side), so Dallas Keuchel got the eighth and ninth for Minnesota. Griffin Jax relieved him with one out to go and picked up a very vulturey save. In other news, Brock Stewart returned after a few months on the injured list and could return to high-leverage work just in time for the playoffs.

Hierarchy remains: Duran | Jax | Pagan.

San Diego Padres — The Padres’ big three all did their jobs to keep the game tied, and in the tenth inning, it was lefty Tom Cosgrove who earned his first career save.

Hierarchy remains: Hader | Suarez | Barlow.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Jason Foley (DET) — The Royals and Tigers are playing a game and a half today.
2. Carlos Hernandez/Taylor Clarke (KC) — See above.

Friday:
1. Ian Hamilton (NYY) — An appearance today would be three in four days for Clay Holmes.

Garrett Crochet and Jason Adam return

September 21, 2023

Chicago White Sox – Aaron Bummer and Bryan Shaw are in line for saves now that Gregory Santos is out for the year, but they’ll be joined in the bullpen by old friend Garrett Crochet. Although Crochet might be a starter next season, he’s likely to stay in relief for the next few weeks.

Updated hierarchy: *Bummer | Shaw | Crochet.
* = closer-by-committee

Chicago Cubs – Mark Leiter Jr. pitched in the sixth inning on Wednesday, with the Cubs down 8-6, and let three more runs score. We’ve got to think this gives Julian Merryweather the inside track at Chicago’s next save chance, with Adbert Alzolay and Michael Fulmer still out injured.

Updated hierarchy: *Merryweather | Leiter Jr. | Boxberger.
* = closer-by-committee

Milwaukee Brewers — Elvis has left the building, with righty Peguero hitting the injured list with right elbow trouble. He will miss the rest of the regular season, but could conceivably return for the playoffs. We’ve got Abner Uribe slightly ahead of Hoby Milner and Trevor Megill for the time being.

Updated hierarchy: Williams | Payamps | Uribe.

Tampa Bay Rays — Jason Adam was reinstated from the injured list Thursday morning and should be thrown right back into the Rays’ late-inning mix.

Updated hierarchy: Fairbanks | Adam | Poche.

Detroit Tigers — See! Will! Vest! See Will Vest! We’ll admit he’s not the best. But when the Tigers need a vulture, he’s the righty that they culture. Lange’s a mensch, but on the bench; had to get his arm refreshed. Holy moley, Jason Foley’s gotta sit and watch his homey — that’s Will Vest! Wasn’t stressed: he got five outs with flair and zest. Yes, Detroit chose to exploit their bullpen guest! Will’s ringing up the K’s, Thursday he’ll spank the A’s, see Will Vest, see Will Vest, seeeee Willll Vessssssssst!

Updated hierarchy: Lange | Foley | Vest.

Seattle Mariners — Protecting a three-run lead against the heart of the Oakland lineup on Wednesday, the Mariners went with top arm Andres Muñoz, which left Justin Topa to pull down the save against lesser hitters in the ninth. Muñoz is still the main guy here, but expect him to get the occasional high-leverage eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Muñoz | Brash | Topa.

Philadelphia Phillies — Craig Kimbrel pitched the ninth in a tied game, leaving the tenth-inning save to Matt Strahm, making him the sixth Phillie reliever with at least two saves. Strahm, Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, and Seranthony Dominguez are all neck-and-neck (and other-neck-and-other-neck) for that second-in-line spot in Philadelphia’s bullpen.

Hierarchy remains: Kimbrel | Alvarado | Dominguez.

Minnesota Twins — Jhoan Duran came into the game in the eighth inning to keep Minnesota within a run, so when Alexis Diaz gave up three in the ninth, it was Griffin Jax called on for the save.

Hierarchy remains: Duran | Jax | Pagan.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Shintaro Fujinami/Danny Coulombe (BAL) — Yennier Cano hasn’t thrown a lot of pitches lately, but an appearance Thursday would be his fourth in five days.

Friday:
1. Jason Foley/Will Vest (DET) — SEE…. WILL… Okay, we won’t put you through the reprise, but Alex Lange has had a lot of work lately and his backups could grab another save against Oakland.
2. Hunter Harvey (WAS) — Kyle Finnegan has pitched a lot recently.

Jose Leclerc — and not Will Smith — earns save for Rangers

August 29, 2023

Texas Rangers – After Aroldis Chapman worked in back-to-back games over the weekend, he was apparently unavailable Monday. But that meant Will Smith did the job in a save situation, right? Well, no. Enter old friend Jose Leclerc, who mixed in a walk with two strikeouts to earn his second save. Reading between the lines, recent usage would indicate Chapman is the committee leader and Leclerc is a part of the mix with Smith. Smith not being used in an obvious situation for a closer Monday is very telling. It’s also worth noting Rangers beat writer Evan Grant said that Leclerc got the save chance after Chapman and Brock Burke had worked in the previous two days — and he did not mention Smith. We’ll make the swap in our hierarchy now and this situation is definitely worth monitoring.

Updated hierarchy: *Chapman | Smith | Leclerc.
* = closer-by-committee

New York Mets – For the first time since undergoing patellar tendon surgery, Edwin Diaz threw a bullpen session. He maintains that his goal is to return to pitch for the Mets before the end of the season even though the club is out of contention, so if he happens to be available in your league (only 16% rostered in Yahoo!, for example), he could be worth stashing if you have IL space.

Hierarchy remains: *Ottavino | Raley | Smith.
* = closer-by-committee

St. Louis Cardinals — Ryan Helsley expects to be activated from the injured list on Wednesday. Whether he jumps right back into the saves mix upon his return remains to be seen.

Hierarchy remains: *Romero | Gallegos | Pallante.
* = closer-by-committee

Toronto Blue Jays – As predicted by the Vulture Save Watch, Jordan Romano did not appear Monday after throwing 36 pitches Sunday, leaving Jordan Hicks there to earn his fourth save since being traded to Toronto.

Hierarchy remains: Romano | Hicks | Garcia.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Evan Phillips did not pitch Monday, as projected by the Vulture Save Watch, but it was Caleb Ferguson and not Brusdar Graterol who got the opportunity in the ninth, earning his third save. He has been used as an opener recently, but this save chance proves he still belongs in the hierarchy. Graterol last worked Friday, throwing 31 pitches, so perhaps manager Dave Roberts wanted an additional day of rest to keep him fresh.

Hierarchy remains: Phillips | Graterol | Ferguson.

Minnesota Twins – The Vulture Save Watch correctly predicted an off-day for Jhoan Duran, but it certainly did not foresee Josh Winder pitching three hitless innings to earn his first career save. He won’t normally factor into the late-inning plans.  

Hierarchy remains: Duran | Jax | Pagan.

Houston Astros – Jose Urquidy covered the final four innings (4 hits, 1 ER, 2 walks 1 strikeout) of what became a blowout Astros win Monday to earn his first career save.

Hierarchy remains: Pressly | Abreu | Neris.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Jose Alvarado (PHI) – Craig Kimbrel has pitched in two straight.
2. Taylor Rogers (SF) – Camilo Doval and Tyler Rogers have each gone in two consecutive games.
3. Andrew Nardi (MIA) – The Marlins were off Monday but Tanner Scott has been busy lately (he pitched in both weekend games).

Wednesday:
1. Shintaro Fujinami (BAL) – If he goes Tuesday, that would be three of four for Yennier Cano.
2. Brooks Raley (NYM) – Same as above for Adam Ottavino.
3. Griffin Jax (MIN) – The above is also true for Jhoan Duran.