A few quick lists this week, comprising all 30 of the top guys in our depth chart:
Top three closers at the moment — Zach Britton; David Robertson; Drew Storen
These guys have high strikeout rates, low walk rates, and there’s nothing in their advanced stats to suggest trouble ahead. Britton‘s GB% is second among all qualified relievers (69.8%).
Knocking on that door — Dellin Betances; Kenley Jansen
With Andrew Miller out for what could be an extended period of time, Betances will get the chance to prove that his impressive skills can play in the ninth inning. Jansen has looked good in his nine appearances, but the .071 BABIP is, er, unsustainable.
Pitching worse than their numbers — John Axford; Tyler Clippard; Greg Holland; Brad Ziegler
These four guys have combined for 37 saves with pretty decent ERAs, but each of them have worrying low K rates (mitigated some for Ziegler and Axford due to their high groundout rates) and are letting too many guys get on base. As we told you a few weeks ago, Holland‘s surface success is not supported by his underlying metrics, and we don’t recommend waiting until the two reach an equilibrium.
Probably better than you think — Luke Gregerson; Jason Grilli; Cody Allen; Hector Rondon; Brett Cecil; Brad Boxberger
The first three guys are raking in saves pretty well, and though their ERAs are higher than you’d like, the fundamentals look pretty solid. Rondon isn’t pitching lights-out or anything, but he doesn’t deserve to be ousted for a committee either. He and Clippard are nearly twins (same IP, same K rate), but Rondon has a much lower walk rate and has given up hits 5% more often on batted balls. And it’s not the fault of Cecil or Boxberger that they’re not getting any save opportunities lately (or, in Cecil‘s case, at all, ever); they’re doing most of what they’re being asked to do.
Guys with 13+ saves who are likely to regress — Joakim Soria; Mark Melancon; Santiago Casilla; Trevor Rosenthal; Francisco Rodriguez; Koji Uehara
If you have a strong bullpen, you might consider moving any of these guys in a trade. Play up those gaudy save numbers and don’t mention that Rosenthal and Soria have astronomically high strand rates that are keeping their ERAs artificially low, that K-Rod is boasting a sub-.220 BABIP for the second straight year, or that Koji Uehara is two months older than Allen Iverson. Sell high, friends.
Big names pitching well (enough) — Glen Perkins; Jonathan Papelbon; Aroldis Chapman; Craig Kimbrel; Huston Street
Some exposure to age and regression here — and there’s no telling where Papelbon might end up — but overall, these guys are getting it done.
Why you don’t have to pay for saves — Carson Smith; Shawn Tolleson; A.J. Ramos; Jeurys Familia
None of these guys were their team’s top choice coming into spring training, but through combinations of injuries and ineffectiveness, they’re closers now — and paying dividends for the owners fortunate enough to grab them first. We’ll be sure to keep you ahead of the curve on the next guys to make this list — maybe Evan Scribner, Wade Davis, or Tony Watson.
