Pending a physical, Emilio Pagán has agreed to a reported $11 million, one-year deal with Detroit. This makes him the preferred save option for a team desperately seeking relief arms with swing-and-miss stuff.
Despite missing time with a hamstring injury this season, Pagán is tied for the eighth-most saves since the start of the 2025 season with 57. In this timeframe, he has posted a 3.07 ERA with 126 strikeouts and 33 walks (20.9 K-BB%). His 0.96 WHIP ranks seventh among all qualified relievers over the last two seasons.
In 2026, his 19 saves from July 1 through the end of the season were tied for the National League lead and for second-most in MLB (Bryan Baker, 20) in that time. Over his last 30 appearances, he recorded 34 strikeouts to just five walks (25.9 K-BB%). This coincided with better velocity upon his return on July 1, but he was below his average rate in 2025:
Delving deeper into his splits this season, this chart also displays his results from the second half of 2025 through the end of 2026, along with his last three years, which may provide a better template of expectations for him in 2027:
Early projections by Steamer forecast some regression in his ratios. Over a projected 63 innings, he would post a 4.02 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP, despite his strong results over the previous three seasons.
Understanding Detroit’s need in the ninth inning, he should lead the team in saves, though his role under A.J. Hinch is less defined than under his previous manager, Terry Francona. This move also leaves a void in the ninth for Cincinnati, which it may not address at the top end of the free-agent market.
In the previous three seasons, Detroit has averaged 83 wins and 39 saves with a 59.4 save percentage. Pagán has converted 58 of 68 save opportunities since 2024 (85.3 save percentage) and should be on track for a third straight season with at least 25 saves.
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