I blame myself for pronouncing the death of the “floating closer” concept for the Phillies following the acquisition of Jhoan Duran. It did occur, but the talented closer has been placed on the 15-day injured list during random oblique injury week:
Beginning with the team’s Win Probability Added results through games played on April 17:
Philadelphia targeted Brad Keller as a premier setup reliever to fill the role vacated by Jeff Hoffman. Although he has a 4.70 ERA through his first 7.2 innings, his 2.46 SIERA and 2.51 xERA project better results moving forward. His eight strikeouts against two walks (18.2 K-BB%) back up his underlying ratio statistics and should provide him with the majority of save chances. However, if shared saves return, there will be games he’s used against the toughest lineup pocket in the late innings, not reserved solely for the ninth inning. In my estimation, he’s 1A in a shared save situation.
José Alvarado has experience closing games, including seven saves last year despite being suspended. He’s had a rough start to the season, illustrated by his 10.50 ERA, but his 3.33 SIERA and 4.13 xERA point to some bad luck. He’s actually been better in his limited sample this year versus right-handed hitters, but should be the late-inning matchup play against a team’s best left-handed hitters’ lineup lane. He would be 1B in a shared save scenario.
Orion Kerkering has been easing back into leverage appearances, but this injury changes the team’s bullpen ecosystem. Although he may be 1C in a shared save pecking order, he’s an intriguing flier in deep formats.
This will update if Rob Thomson makes an announcement about leverage roles without Duran, but anticipating a “floating closer” concept makes sense.
Updated Hierarchy: *Brad Keller | *José Alvarado | *Orion Kerkering
*= closer-by-committee