With MLB’s first half completed, only three teams in the American League are more than four games out of the last Wild Card spot. It makes prognostication about how teams will handle the trade deadline challenging. There will be buyers and sellers, but the most common approach may be a mix of both.
Before the second half begins, the standings are as follows:
Because sites can view things differently, the updated playoff odds from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference will be shared. First, Fangraphs:
And, from Baseball Reference:
This post will set the baseline of players that could be traded, along with roster notes of interest for each American League team.
Trade Deadline Glossary
BUY+ = A reliever with a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
BUY = A reliever with a slight chance (20 percent or higher) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
SELL = A reliever with a slight chance (20 percent or lower) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.
SELL+ = A reliever wth a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of losing the closer role as a result of the trade deadline.
TL;DR
BUY+: None
BUY: Tyler Wells (BAL); Garrett Whitlock (BOS); Justin Slaten (BOS); Will Vest (DET); Ben Joyce (LAA); Sam Bachman (LAA)
SELL: Ryan Helsley (BAL); Aroldis Chapman (BOS); David Bednar (NYY); Kenley Jansen (DET)
SELL+: Seranthony Domínguez (CHW)
American League East
- Ryan Helsley has a $14 million player option for 2027
- 2027 Free Agent: Andrew Kittredge
Outlook: Although the team maintains it will be buyers ahead of the deadline, is this pragmatic? Helsley will begin throwing again, but it may not be until August. Félix Bautista remains on the rehab trail, and the next three weeks may determine whether this philosophy shifts. If they do sell, Tyler Wells stands to benefit, and Andrew Kittredge has been accruing ancillary saves in the interim as well.
BUY: Tyler Wells; SELL: Ryan Helsley
- Aroldis Chapman has a mutual option for $13 million for 2027; Garrett Whitlock has team options for 2027 and 2028
- 2027 Free Agent: Danny Coulombe
Outlook: A nine-game winning streak at the end of the first half has shifted the team’s philosophy from early June from selling to buying or a hybrid approach, subtracting and adding players ahead of the deadline. If they take a mixed approach, Aroldis Chapman may be traded, but he prefers to stay in Boston. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic suggested the team may buy and sell:
BUY: Garrett Whitlock; BUY: Justin Slaten; SELL: Aroldis Chapman
- 2027 Free Agents: David Bednar; Paul Blackburn; Tim Hill; Ryan Yarbrough
Outlook: Everyone knows the Yankees will be adding relievers. Things would get interesting in the Bronx if San Diego puts Mason Miller on the trade market, from MLB.com:
Having him as a target and being able to present a prospect package capable of getting a closer under team control through 2029 are two separate entities. Stay tuned.
SELL: David Bednar
- No roster notes of interest
Outlook: Operating on the margins, the Rays may pick up a reliever from waivers or make a small depth deal, but nothing imminent on a closer unless the market moves in their favor.
BUY/SELL: None
- 2027 Free Agent: Yimi García
Outlook: If the World Series runner-up sells, moving Jeff Hoffman to a contender and shedding his contract makes sense. However, he’s not the closer, so he won’t receive a designation.
BUY/SELL: None
American League Central
- 2027 Free Agent: Sean Newcomb
Outlook: It’s a new frontier for the White Sox, who project as buyers. Will they shop at the top end of the closer market, which allows them to keep Grant Taylor in his current highest-leverage reliever role? If they cannot get Chapman, keep tabs on Luke Weaver, who would be a perfect fit in this leverage ladder.
SELL+: Seranthony Domínguez
- Shawn Armstrong has a mutual option for $8 million. Emmanuel Clase has team options for 2027 and 2028, but he may have thrown his last pitch in the majors.
Outlook: Since the team prefers to restock the pond from its system, no major moves are looming ahead of the deadline unless they retool.
BUY/SELL: None
- Kenley Jansen has a $12 million club option for 2027, and Drew Anderson has a $10 million club option for 2027.
- 2027 Free Agent: Enmaneul De Jesus
If Jansen remains healthy and the team decides to sell, he’s a probable trade candidate. Will Vest was placed on the 15-day injured list before game action on July 1. He enters the saves conversation if he returns and Jansen gets traded. For now:
SELL: Kenley Jansen; BUY: Will Vest
- Carlos Estévez has a 2027 club option for $13 million.
- 2027 Free Agents: Matt Strahm, John Schreiber
Outlook: It’s tough giving up another season during Bobby Witt Jr.’s peak, but reloading for next year makes sense. Can they get anything for Estévez? Time will tell, but he felt soreness in his shoulder after his last bullpen session, received an injection, and will try again after the All-Star break. Teams are asking about Daniel Lynch IV as well. He may not be available right now, but if the reliever market is a seller’s market, the Royals may entertain moving him.
BUY/SELL: None (unless Estévez can be activated)
- 2027 Free Agent: Taylor Rogers
Outlook: Things have changed for the Twins. They are satisfied with Yoendrys Gómez and Andrew Morris sharing high-leverage work late in games, plus Cole Sands will return soon. If things keep trending positively, they will seek more leverage relievers at the deadline. Their next 10 games may be a deciding factor in how the organization proceeds.
BUY/SELL: None
American League West
- 2027 Free Agents: Bryan Abreu; Steven Okert; Enyel De Los Santos
Outlook: Does Abreu need a change of scenery on the precipice of free agency? He may get moved if Miguel Ullola and Alimber Santa can be reliable relievers in the second half. Adding another right-handed setup reliever with high-leverage experience would be preferred.
BUY/SELL: None
- Robert Stephenson has a $2.5 million team option for 2027.
- 2027 Free Agents: Kirby Yates; Brent Suter
Outlook: Under new management, the team will feature Yates in the ninth inning to build his market. He was scoreless in 11 of his last 12 appearances of the first half, posting 15 strikeouts against two walks across 10.2 innings. The biggest question remains: can Ben Joyce overcome his injury issues? If yes, he’s a buy, but if not, it could be time for fantasy players to turn the page. Joyce has faced live batters in Arizona.
SELL+: Kirby Yates; BUY: Ben Joyce
- Andrés Muñoz has team options for 2027 ($8 million) and 2028 ($10 million).
Just when it seemed like their closer was on the cusp of losing his role, he improved his velocity, with his results following. If he remains healthy the rest of the way, his option in the current landscape remains a bargain for a closer. Jerry Dipoto would like to add a veteran reliever and is not averse to using Kade Anderson or Ryan Sloan out of the bullpen in late August or September.
BUY/SELL: None
- Jakob Junis has a $5 million team option.
- 2027 Free Agents: Tyler Alexander, Chris Martin, Jalen Beeks
Although Jacob Latz has stabilized this bullpen, he’s already recorded nine saves requiring at least four outs through his first 33 games this season, and has recorded four or more outs in one-third of his relief outings overall. Texas will be in the reliever market, but for reliable setup options, not the ninth inning.
BUY/SELL: None
- 2027 Free Agent: Mark Leiter Jr. (currently on the IL)
Like their residency in Sacramento right now, this team remains in limbo ahead of the trade deadline. If they decide to add, high-leverage relievers make sense, but Mark Kotsay has run a matchups-based bullpen since the team traded Mason Miller last season.
BUY/SELL: None
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.
Statistical Credits: