With the calendar reaching July, the dog days of summer have entered the chat, along with the trade deadline coming into focus for fantasy managers. With just over a month until then, teams’ outlooks regarding buying, selling, or doing a bit of both will fluctuate as the standings evolve. Understanding that this is only the beginning of the trade season, a team may strike early, making this a necessary part of our process.
Entering game play on July first, the standings are as follows:
Teams in the American League remain hesitant to announce their deadline plans since five teams are within five games of the last Wild Card spot. How teams play until the All-Star break and the first week and a half after may provide more clarity.
Because sites can see things differently, the updated playoff odds from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. First, Fangraphs:
And, from Baseball Reference:
This post will set the baseline of players that could be traded, along with roster notes of interest for each American League team.
Trade Deadline Glossary
BUY+ = A reliever with a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
BUY = A reliever with a slight chance (20 percent or higher) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
SELL = A reliever with a slight chance (20 percent or lower) of losing the closer role as a result of the trade deadline.
SELL+ = A reliever wth a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of losing the closer role as a result of the trade deadline.
TL;DR
BUY+: Garrett Whitlock (BOS)
BUY: Tyler Wells (BAL); Tyron Guerrero (BOS); Kyle Finnegan (DET)
SELL: Ryan Helsley (BAL); Aroldis Chapman (BOS); David Bednar (NYY); Kenley Jansen (DET); Yoendrys Gómez (MIN)
SELL+: Seranthony Domínguez (CHW)
American League East
- Ryan Helsley has a $14 million player option for 2027
- 2027 Free Agent: Andrew Kittredge
Outlook: Although the team maintains it will be buyers ahead of the deadline, is this pragmatic? Helsley has missed time with an injury, Félix Bautista remains on the rehab trail, and the next three weeks may determine whether this philosophy shifts. If they do sell, Tyler Wells stands to benefit.
BUY: Tyler Wells; SELL: Ryan Helsley
- Aroldis Chapman has a mutual option for $13 million for 2027; Garrett Whitlock has team options for 2027 and 2028
- 2027 Free Agent: Danny Coulombe
Outlook: You will not read a trade deadline piece regarding Chapman unless it’s team-specific. Otherwise, he will be one of the reliever crown jewels leading up to August third. Destination determines his role, but if he lands on a team with an established closer, he will be used in a setup capacity. The wild card remains Whitlock; his value may never be higher as the deadline approaches, and the team is not in contention for a playoff spot.
BUY+: Garrett Whitlock; BUY: Tyron Guerrero; SELL: Aroldis Chapman
- 2027 Free Agents: David Bednar; Paul Blackburn; Tim Hill; Ryan Yarbrough
Outlook: Everyone knows the Yankees will be adding relievers. One upgrade will be Carlos Lagrange when the team deems him ready for the majors. His role will be akin to his comparison, Dellin Betances, making him more alluring for leagues with SOLDS or holds as categories. The biggest question will be: with Bednar a pending free agent, will the team try to trade for a closer under team control through 2027 or beyond? If yes, does this remove Bednar from the closer role?
SELL: David Bednar
- No roster notes of interest
Outlook: Operating on the margins, the Rays may pick up a reliever from waivers or make a small depth deal, but nothing imminent on a closer unless the market moves in their favor.
BUY/SELL: None
- 2027 Free Agent: Yimi García
Outlook: If the World Series runner-up sells, moving Jeff Hoffman to a contender and shedding his contract makes sense. However, he’s not the closer, so he won’t receive a designation. A fresh start may be necessary for the reliever, and teams will not overlook his strong underlying data: 2.31 SIERA, 27.2 K-BB%, 17.2 SwStr% through his first 40 appearances.
American League Central
- 2027 Free Agent: Sean Newcomb
Outlook: It’s a new frontier for the White Sox, who project as buyers. Will they shop at the top end of the closer market, which allows them to keep Grant Taylor in his current highest-leverage reliever role? If they cannot get Chapman, keep tabs on Luke Weaver, who would be a perfect fit in this leverage ladder.
SELL+: Seranthony Domínguez
- Shawn Armstrong has a mutual option for $8 million. Emmanuel Clase has team options for 2027 and 2028, but he may have thrown his last pitch in the majors.
Outlook: Since the team prefers to restock the pond from its system, no major moves are looming ahead of the deadline unless they retool.
BUY/SELL: None
- Kenley Jansen has a club option for $12 million for 2027, and Drew Anderson also has a club option at $10 million for 2027.
- 2027 Free Agent: Enmaneul De Jesus
If Jansen remains healthy and the team decides to sell, he’s a probable trade candidate. It may be surprising, but De Jesus is the type of pitcher a team like the Rays’ or another team seeking a reliever capable of absorbing multiple-inning outings. Before his recent demotion, he was in the midst of an eight-game scoreless streak, spanning 13 innings with a 0.385 WHIP and 13 strikeouts versus two walks (26.2 K-BB%). Will Vest was placed on the 15-day injured list before game action on July 1. He enters the saves conversation if he returns and Jansen gets traded. For now:
SELL: Kenley Jansen; BUY: Kyle Finnegan
- Carlos Estévez has a 2027 club option for $13 million.
- 2027 Free Agents: Matt Strahm, John Schreiber
Outlook: It’s tough giving up another season during Bobby Witt Jr.’s peak, but reloading for next year makes sense. Can they get anything for Estévez? Time will tell, but he felt soreness in his shoulder after his last bullpen session.
BUY/SELL: None (unless Estévez can be activated)
- 2027 Free Agent: Taylor Rogers
Outlook: Although the team may buy and sell at the deadline, it does not project as a team seeking relievers or having many they can move. Perhaps a sell high on Yoendrys Gómez, but the return may be light. It’s more likely that David Festa or another pitcher from the prospect pool emerges in the second half as a leverage option.
SELL: Yoendrys Gómez
American League West
- 2027 Free Agents: Bryan Abreu; Steven Okert; Enyel De Los Santos
Outlook: Does Abreu need a change of scenery on the precipice of free agency? It’s possible he gets moved if Miguel Ullola and Alimber Santa can be reliable relievers in the second half.
BUY/SELL: None
- Robert Stephenson has a $2.5 million team option for 2027.
- 2027 Free Agents: Kirby Yates; Brent Suter
Outlook: Under new management, the team may feature Yates in the ninth inning to build his market. He finished June on an eight-game scoreless streak, recording a 0.409 WHIP with 12 strikeouts against two walks across 7.1 innings. The biggest question remains: can Ben Joyce overcome his injury issues? If yes, he’s a buy, but if not, it could be time for fantasy players to turn the page.
SELL+: Kirby Yates; BUY: Ben Joyce; BUY: Sam Bachman
- Andrés Muñoz has team options for 2027 ($8 million) and 2028 ($10 million).
Just when it seemed like their closer was on the cusp of losing his role, he improved his velocity, with his results following. If he remains healthy the rest of the way, his option in the current landscape remains a bargain for a closer.
BUY/SELL: None
- Jakob Junis has a $5 million team option.
- 2027 Free Agents: Tyler Alexander, Chris Martin, Jalen Beeks
Although Jacob Latz has stabilized this bullpen, he’s already recorded nine saves requiring at least four outs through his first 33 games this season, and has recorded four or more outs in one-third of his relief outings overall. Texas will be in the reliever market, but for reliable setup options, not the ninth inning.
BUY/SELL: None
- 2027 Free Agent: Mark Leiter Jr. (currently on the IL)
Like their residency in Sacramento right now, this team remains in limbo ahead of the trade deadline. If they decide to add, high-leverage relievers make sense, but Mark Kotsay has run a matchups-based bullpen since the team traded Mason Miller last season.
BUY/SELL: None
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