It has been a quiet news cycle for closers in the new year. However, Tuesday featured an announcement by the Royals that they will be moving in the fences at Kauffman Field:
Carlos Estévez was already a candidate for regression in 2026, and this news does not help. His PullAIR percentage rose by almost three percentage points last season while working with reduced velocity (AIR is a Statcast metric that combines fly balls and line drives). Beginning with his spray chart during home games on line drives and fly balls in 2025:
If he continues allowing most of his fly balls to dead center, there may not be a rise in home runs allowed. In terms of a spray chart, these events appear as such:
Taking this a step further, his batted ball events with a distance greater than 350 feet are illustrated below:
And a list of each event:
After watching the videos of each event, four could be home runs with the adjusted dimensions:
- Daulton Varsho
- Denzel Clarke
- Jeff McNeil
- Gabriel Arias
Of these, only one would not have been a solo shot, but simply adding five earned runs to his home ERA has a causative effect. In 2025, he posted a 2.48 ERA at home, and with these potential changes, it would have been 3.72. It’s not as extreme when viewing a rise from his 2025 ERA of 2.45 to 3.14 with five more earned runs, but it moves closer toward his 3.69 xERA and 4.43 SIERA.
Only two more qualified pitchers allowed more AIR (fly balls plus line drives) than his 74.6 percent in 2025. If he allows more pulled fly balls, the advantage he had during home games disappears. It went from 18.8 in 2024 to 21.7 last season; another three percentage-point rise would be less than ideal.
He may be the poster player for fades in 2026, especially for the skills-over-role crowd. He’s insulated by a defined role with a patient manager after leading the majors with 42 saves last season.
But Estévez was the only qualified reliever with more than 20 saves and a swinging strike rate below ten percent. Only eight relievers had a higher contact rate allowed. The trends in his underlying data cannot be ignored when he’s being taken in the first 100 picks of NFBC drafts:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GV1Rg/1/
There were some valleys in his production when viewing strikeouts, but saves never waned. For our purposes, his splits by four-seam velocity last year, though there is some pitch overlap when using Statcast’s search engine. My chart reflects 594 four-seams, but he only threw 558 last year. Still, it’s worth sharing:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/sbs3z/1/
His average draft position was depressed because many fantasy managers did not trust that he would be the Royals’ closer. This year, he’s the tenth reliever taken in early drafts, according to Fantasy Pros.
His early projection sets agree on migration to the mean, and OOPSY upped his ratios following the ballpark adjustments in his home stadium:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LT21Q/1/
In my estimation, Estévez has earned a long leash with the Royals, but has a club option for 2027, which would increase his salary from $10.1 million to $13 million. If he struggles with velocity or performance, he could lose his grip on the closer role and the option for next year.
Last year, he was a buy at his ADP. This year, he represents a fade based on the underlying data. He could repeat his save total, but it’s a fickle statistic. His lack of strikeout upside, combined with the ratio risks at his current price point, may be a deadly combination for fantasy players. Let someone else take the bait on his save total from 2025.
Thanks for being part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe, and be well.
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LT21Q/1/
In my estimation, Estévez has earned a long leash with the Royals, but has a club option for 2027, which would increase his salary from $10.1 million to $13 million. If he struggles with velocity or performance, he could lose his grip on the closer role and the option for next year.
Last year, he was a buy at his ADP. This year, he represents a fade based on the underlying data. He could repeat his save total, but it’s a fickle statistic. His lack of strikeout upside, combined with the ratio risks at his current price point, may be a deadly combination for fantasy players. Let someone else take the bait on his save total from 2025.
Thanks for being part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe, and be well.
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Statistical Credits:
Steamer projections of Steamerprojections.com on Fangraphs
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
OOPSY projections courtesy of Jordan Rosenblum