Monday’s 10-game slate featured six games decided by five or more runs (blowouts), resulting in one win by a reliever and only two saves. Relievers also recorded two losses and a blown save, but today’s focus will be on the two closers who posted saves.
Devin Williams
Entering with a three-run lead against the Royals’ 2-3-4 lineup pocket, Devin Williams battled his command, navigating around a lead-off Bobby Witt Jr. single and a one-out walk by retiring Michael Massey on a pop-out, then Maikel Garcia on a game-ending lineout to left field. He threw 15 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced one whiff while recording his second save.
He has not recorded a clean outing with his new team, resulting in his 2.60 WHIP with seven strikeouts against six walks (3.6 K-BB%) over five innings.
Here is his pitch illustrator from this appearance:
He prefers working at the top of the strike zone with his four-seam fastball and below it for whiffs with the change-up. However, command and hard-hit baseballs remained an issue during his brief tenure with the Yankees.
He has a 57.8 strike percentage (78 of 135 pitches have been strikes), and when he’s behind in the count, he must throw his pitches in the strike zone. In his small sample this season, his 8.9 swinging strike percentage represents a career low. He posted a 17.6 percent swinging strike rate last year and has a 17.8 swinging strike percentage for his career.
The more significant concern lies in his batted ball data. Again, it’s taken with a grain of salt because he’s only logged five innings across six appearances, but his 7.20 ERA comes with a 5.34 SIERA and an 8.53 expected ERA (xERA), resulting in a 2.60 WHIP. First, his hard-hit percentage from Statcast:
Next, in this chart, Z-Contact represents contact in the strike zone, and EV is exit velocity represented by miles per hour:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yeE3D/1/
Fewer strikes with less whiff induced while allowing more contact makes things difficult during save situations. Williams has the pedigree for a rebound, but he has to be more aggressive early in counts to set up his “Airbender” for strikeouts and clean appearances. He’s allowed multiple baserunners in four of six games this season. Monitor his swinging strike percentage with his change-up through the end of April; it’s currently at 11.8 percent versus 22.2 in 2024.
Tanner Scott
Securing his fifth save, Tanner Scott navigated around a lead-off single by Mickey Moniak and a one-out hit by Sean Bouchard with a strikeout, followed by a game-ending groundout, finishing a two-run win over Colorado. He threw 18 pitches (15 strikes – 83.3 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (11.1 SwStr%).
He has a 0.89 WHIP with seven strikeouts (21.2 K-BB%) through nine innings. He has been scoreless and recorded three clean outings in his last five. He’s also not issued a walk this season while posting a career-best 75.9 strike percentage with the Dodgers. Throwing more four seams has produced more contact and fewer swings and misses. This season, he has a 13 swinging strike percentage versus 15.8 percent last year.
Like Williams, he’s giving up more contact:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Lok8n/2/
It’s not necessarily the hard contact but the rise in amount overall early this year. It’s also strange seeing he has a .548 weighted on-base average against left-handed hitters versus his career rate of .285 facing them. Things will improve, but fantasy managers prefer a few more strikeouts while producing less contact during high-leverage events. His 3.00 ERA faces a battle against his 6.15 xERA and 2.64 SIERA. Stay tuned, and monitor his continued success depressing free passes.
For the save streamers, a light forecast:
Vulture Save Option for April 15
- Blake Treinen (LAD): Given the depth of this leverage ladder, Scott has only appeared in consecutive games once this season, and if this trend continues, it will be Treinen for the save if necessary tonight.
Vulture Save Stashes for April 16
- Yennier Cano (BAL): If Félix Bautista pitches tonight, he will be unavailable on Wednesday.
- Mark Leiter Jr. (NYY): If Williams and Weaver pitch in this evening’s contest, it will be consecutive days for both, leaving Leiter Jr. in line for the save chance on Wednesday.
- Justin Lawrence (PIT): He will be unavailable tonight after working in back-to-back games. However, if Santana pitches in today’s game, it will be consecutive outings, placing Lawrence in line for the save on Wednesday.
Here are the remaining leverage notes of interest from Monday.
Closer CliffsNotes
Kansas City Royals
- Appearing in a loss, Daniel Lynch IV worked around Paul Goldschmidt’s lead-off double by retiring the next three batters, including an inning-ending strikeout of Cody Bellinger. He threw 16 pitches (75 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He has a 0.83 WHIP with six strikeouts against four walks through eight innings.
Hierarchy Remains: Carlos Estévez | Lucas Erceg | Daniel Lynch IV
Milwaukee Brewers
- Elvin Rodriguez worked five innings as the piggyback, giving up three hits and an earned run while striking out seven. He threw 68 pitches (45 strikes – 66.2 Strike%) and produced eight whiffs (11.8 SwStr%).
Hierarchy Remains: Trevor Megill | Abner Uribe | Jared Koenig
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Although things lined up for a Dennis Santana save opportunity, his teammates scored five runs at the bottom of the eighth, breaking the game open. Santana finished a seven-run win with a scoreless top of the ninth, navigating around Paul DeJong’s two-out single with a game-ending groundout. He threw 12 pitches (91.7 Strike%) without a whiff. He has a 1.08 WHIP with four strikeouts against three walks over 8.1 innings.
- Caleb Ferguson allowed two hits and an earned run while securing his third hold in the eighth.
- Justin Lawrence fired a clean seventh, striking out one on 12 pitches (75 Strike%) with four whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). He’s riding a seven-game scoreless streak with 10 strikeouts versus four walks (22.2 K-BB%) and a 0.26 WHIP through 7.2 innings.
Hierarchy Remains: Dennis Santana | Caleb Ferguson | Justin Lawrence
San Diego Padres
- Taking over a tied game at the top of the seventh, Adrian Morejon allowed a walk during a scoreless outing while recording one strikeout. He collected his first win after his team rallied for three runs at the bottom of the frame.
- Jason Adam gave up a two-out single by Pete Crow-Armstrong, a stolen base, and an earned run on Miguel Amaya’s double and recorded a strikeout for his MLB-leading seventh hold.
- Wandy Peralta finished the six-run win, navigating around a hit and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless ninth.
Hierarchy Remains: Robert Suarez | Jason Adam | Jeremiah Estrada
San Francisco Giants
- In order of appearance, Randy Rodríguez notched his second hold, working around Max Kepler’s lead-off double by retiring the next three batters, one via strikeout.
- Erik Miller navigated around a hit and a walk while striking out one for a scoreless seventh.
- Tyler Rogers fired a clean eighth and recorded one strikeout.
- Camilo Doval worked a clean ninth, closing a six-run win with two strikeouts. He threw 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) with three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%).
Hierarchy Remains: Ryan Walker | Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers
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