Closer Monkey’s Leverage Ledger | September 5

Thursday’s six-game slate yielded two reliever wins and three saves. They were also tagged with three losses. Here are the saves in condensed form:

For the save streamers:

Vulture Save Option for September 5

  • Bryan Baker (TB): Pete Fairbanks pitched last night and has not pitched in consecutive games since August 15 and 16. 

News, Notes, and Observations

Fantasy players await an update on Kyle Finnegan, which should be forthcoming this afternoon.

An update and an adjusted timeline for Trevor Megill:

And some clarity about the mystery reliever:

This may be a pivotal weekend for Trey Yesavage. If Toronto’s relievers struggle against the Yankees, it could be a pathway toward a promotion and an audition for the postseason, from Ben Nicholson-Smith’s post for Sportsnet:

Here are the leverage events of interest from Thursday.

Leverage Ledger

Chicago White Sox – Finishing a four-game sweep in Minnesota, Steven Wilson allowed two hits, including a solo home run by Kody Clemens, in a non-save appearance.

  • Grant Taylor notched his eighth hold, giving up a hit and striking out one in a scoreless bottom of the eighth, throwing 15 pitches (66.7% strike rate) with one whiff.
  • Wilkeman González earned his first major league win, stranding a runner at the bottom of the sixth, and logged 1.1 scoreless frames, issuing a walk while striking out two.

Hierarchy Remains: *Jordan Leasure | *Grant Taylor | *Mike Vasil

*= closer-by-committee

Kansas City Royals – Handed a one-run lead at the top of the ninth, Carlos Estévez worked around Yoán Moncada’s one-out double with consecutive strikeouts, securing his MLB-leading 37th save. He threw 16 pitches (68.8% strike rate) and generated four whiffs (25 SwStr%).

This extended his scoreless streak to eight games and has converted seven save chances in it, posting a 0.25 WHIP with nine strikeouts versus zero walks (36 K-BB%) over his last eight innings. Here is his updated splits by month chart:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kxbRt/2/

  • Lucas Erceg collected his seventh win, firing a clean top of the eighth and striking out two ahead of Bobby Witt Jr.’s go-ahead solo home run at the bottom of the inning.
  • Ben Bowlan logged two scoreless frames, walking one and striking out two.

Hierarchy Remains: Carlos Estévez | Lucas Erceg | John Schreiber

New York Yankees – Working into and then out of trouble, David Bednar closed out a four-run win in Houston. However, he took over with a five-run margin, giving up a lead-off single by Victor Caratini, followed by Taylor Trammell’s double, and a lineout by Jeremy Peña. Yordan Alvarez produced an RBI single and Jose Altuve walked to load the bases, but Bednar bore down, striking out Carlos Correa and Christian Walker. He finished with three hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out two, throwing 33 pitches (60.6% strike rate) with six whiffs (18.2 SwStr%).

  • Fernando Cruz stranded two runners at the bottom of the seventh while logging 1.1 scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out three for his 13th hold.
  • Luke Weaver gave up a solo home run by Jesús Sánchez among his three hits and recorded two strikeouts in the seventh, getting credit for his 17th hold.

Hierarchy Remains: David Bednar | Luke Weaver | Devin Williams

Philadelphia Phillies – Amid a playoff-like atmosphere, Jhoan Duran completed a combined shutout, retiring the side, including a game-ending strikeout while recording his 26th save. He threw 16 pitches (62.5% strike rate) and induced one whiff.

Through 14 appearances since the trade deadline, he has converted ten of 11 save opportunities while posting a 0.855 WHIP with 14 strikeouts versus zero walks (31.1 K-BB%) across 10.2 innings.

  • Matt Strahm worked a scoreless eighth, allowing Andrew Vaughn’s two-out single and striking out one for his 17th hold.
  • David Robertson fired a clean seventh, striking out one, and notched his fifth hold.

Hierarchy Remains: Jhoan Duran | Matt Strahm | Orion Kerkering

Pittsburgh Pirates – Summoned with two runners on and one out, Colin Holderman let one inherited runner score on a two-out RBI single by Miguel Rojas, then recorded a game-ending strikeout against Ben Rortvedt for his first save of the season. He threw six pitches, all strikes, and produced one whiff (16.7 SwStr%).

  • Dauri Moreta struggled after taking over at the top of the ninth, giving up four hits and three earned runs while striking out one, spoiling the shutout.
  • Evan Sisk retired his only batter in the eighth.
  • Yohan Ramírez tossed 1.2 scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out two.

Updated Hierarchy: Dennis Santana | Isaac Mattson | Colin Holderman

Tampa Bay Rays – Taking over with a 4-0 lead at the top of the ninth, Pete Fairbanks allowed back-to-back home runs by José Ramírez and Kyle Manzardo before retiring three in a row, preserving a two-run win during a non-save appearance.

He had not appeared in a game since August 31 and has allowed five home runs in his last six outings, resulting in five earned runs. His season and future remain perplexing. Tampa Bay will have to decide if it picks up his team option, which will reach $11.5 million after the incentives he’s triggered. At this price point, trading him may be more challenging. The team did plan for the future, acquiring Baker and Griffin Jax with years of team control remaining.

As for Fairbanks, he has struggled in recent outings, but has not issued a walk since the All-Star break. Here are his splits by month and half through yesterday’s appearance:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Q8eFp/2/

  • Edwin Uceta retired the side and recorded two strikeouts at the top of the eighth.
  • Garrett Cleavinger struck out the side in the seventh, extending his scoreless streak to 21 games. During this stretch, he has recorded a 0.842 WHIP with 28 strikeouts against seven walks (30 K-BB%) through 19 innings.
  • Bryan Baker notched his 17th hold, giving up a hit and striking out one in a scoreless sixth.

For now: 

Hierarchy Remains: Pete Fairbanks | Bryan Baker | Garrett Cleavinger

Quick Hits

  • Los Angeles Angels: Suffering his fifth loss, Ryan Zeferjahn allowed a solo home run by Bobby Witt Jr. at the bottom of the eighth. José Fermin gave up a game-tying solo home run by Salvador Perez, resulting in his second blown save.
  • Milwaukee Brewers: Entering at the top of the sixth, Aaron Ashby issued a walk and recorded a strikeout while facing the Phillies’ 3-4-5-6 hitters in a scoreless outing. Tobias Myers gave up two hits, Alec Bohm’s one-out triple and Trea Turner’s RBI single, resulting in his second loss during two-thirds of the seventh.
  • Minnesota Twins: Taking over at the top of the sixth, Travis Adams suffered his third loss and a second blown save, allowing three hits, four earned runs, and striking out two during a combined inning of relief.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net