July 22, 2022
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Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
TL;DR — NL relievers
BUY+: None.
BUY: Corey Knebel, Rowan Wick, Alexis Diaz, Joe Mantiply.
SELL: Tanner Scott, Seranthony Dominguez, Hunter Strickland, Taylor Rogers, Daniel Bard, Mark Melancon.
SELL+: David Robertson.
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NL East
Atlanta Braves – The defending champs’ recent surge has been due in part to one of the strongest bullpens in baseball, as even without Kenley Jansen, lefties AJ Minter, Will Smith, and Tyler Matzek have been shutting teams down with aplomb. It’s always possible they could add an arm or two, but there aren’t many available players that would even crack this hierarchy, much less supplant Jansen.
BUY/SELL: None.
Miami Marlins – Sitting 5.5 games back of the third Wild Card — and with two additional teams that they’d have to leapfrog between them and the Phillies — it doesn’t seem likely that the Marlins will be buyers at the deadline. Instead, they’ll likely look to move Anthony Bass, who hasn’t given up a run in his last 15.2 innings and is in the final year of his deal (though the Marlins do have a club option they could exercise). Despite his recent run of success, it’s unlikely Bass would land anywhere that he’d be given save chances; the same is true of Tanner Scott, who would fetch a higher price since he has two years of arbitration left. We think it’s likely that the Marlins hold on to Scott, but we’ll slap a light sell on him in case they do find a taker.
BUY: None, SELL: Tanner Scott.
New York Mets – The Mets definitely need some middle relief help, but there’s no one on the market — and perhaps no one in the league — that would supplant Edwin Diaz, who is looking to become just the second pitcher in history to strike out more than 50% of the hitters he faces.
BUY/SELL: None.
Philadelphia Phillies – Corey Knebel’s struggles prompted the Phillies to remove him from the closer role earlier this season, and while he’s been better lately (8.1 consecutive scoreless innings), this bullpen would definitely benefit from a clear 9th inning guy. David Robertson or Daniel Bard could potentially fit the bill, as could Paul Sewald — if he’s made available and if the Phillies are willing to pay the price required for a player with two more years of team control. Regardless, it seems that Seranthony Dominguez will be out of a job soon, either due to an acquisition or Knebel winning the job back
BUY: Corey Knebel; SELL: Seranthony Dominguez.
Washington Nationals – With three years of team control remaining, it seems unlikely that the Nationals will deal Kyle Finnegan. Instead, look for them to move veterans Steve Cishek and Carl Edwards Jr., though neither will end up closing wherever they land.
BUY/SELL: None.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs – The Cubs will be sellers at the deadline and no player is as likely to move as closer David Robertson. Robertson has been excellent this year, recording 13 saves, but he is a free agent next year, and a trade would likely see him shuffled into a set-up role. The likely beneficiary is Rowan Wick, who still has arbitration years left.
BUY: Rowan Wick; SELL+: David Robertson.
Cincinnati Reds – The Reds have the worst record in the NL Central and the worst bullpen ERA in the majors. Nominal closer Hunter Strickland is in the last year of his deal and the Reds will shop him around, but with a 5.40 ERA he isn’t the most attractive trade target. If he does move, he won’t be closing which might clear a path for Alexis Diaz to take over the Cincinnati committee. Diaz may get a shot regardless as the Reds look to the future, but it’s hard to recommend any Reds reliever for saves when they win so few games.
BUY: Alexis Diaz; SELL: Hunter Strickland.
Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers find themselves in first place in the Central, in no small part to their outstanding bullpen, which leads the majors in saves. If stability is your thing, you can’t do much better than Josh Hader and Devin Williams, and any help the Brewers bring in would be bridges to those two. Hader needed the all-star break more than most, giving up 9 runs over his last two appearances. If Hader does continue to falter, Williams would almost certainly be the next man up no matter what help the Brewers bring in.
BUY/SELL: None.
Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates are still in the midst of a rebuild, but they boast one of the youngest bullpens in the majors, and aren’t likely to part with any of their best options. David Bednar has solidified his spot as the Pirates’ closer and because he is still under team control, he would command an exceptional price if he were to be moved. The Pirates are leaning into this group of players and are most likely to stay quiet at the deadline.
BUY/SELL: None.
St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals are firmly in the playoff race, and while they may seek some bullpen upgrades, it is unlikely that they’ll dismantle the back end as a part of it. If there is an x-factor it would be the Cardinals landing Juan Soto, in which case anybody could be part of the return package, but in the absence of that type of blockbuster, the Cardinals’ hierarchy seems safe.
BUY/SELL: None.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers are once again headed for the postseason as they boast the National League’s best record at the All-Star Break. But the team has a depleted bullpen thanks to injuries to top guys including Blake Treinen (who will likely return in the second half) and Daniel Hudson (who will not). So they could seek to add some relief help at the deadline, though it is unlikely that anyone supplants closer Craig Kimbrel as long as he is healthy and despite his recent struggles. Keep an eye on Brusdar Graterol, who has filled in as closer recently with Kimbrel hurt and has the makings of a closer of the future for LA.
BUY/SELL: None.
San Diego Padres – San Diego is in the thick of the hunt and their GM AJ Preller is among the game’s most aggressive, so it is very likely they add bullpen help. Closer Taylor Rogers was excellent for most of the first half, finishing with a 1.64 ERA through the first two months, but he has struggled mightily as of late, allowing 12 ER in 15.2 IP since June 1. If Preller makes a big splash for a reliever, Rogers could be relegated to a role he had for some of his time with the Twins — as a setup man.
BUY: None; SELL: Taylor Rogers.
San Francisco Giants – The Giants are five games above .500 and it remains to be seen whether the franchise will be trade deadline buyers or sellers. In either case, it’s highly unlikely they trade Camilo Doval (2.95 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) away or trade for a reliever who would truly compete with Doval for saves. BUT… the team did sign Trevor Rosenthal. He is several weeks away from joining the big-league roster, and it remains to be seen where he will be slotted.
BUY/SELL: None.
Colorado Rockies – The Rockies are prime candidates to sell, but will they? GM Bill Schmidt indicated last week that his team will not be undergoing a rebuild. That still doesn’t mean they won’t trade Daniel Bard, who has been excellent this year and could be a nice piece for a contender, but possibly as a late-inning setup man and not the unquestioned closer he is today. Alex Colome could conceivably be available at the deadline, too, so it’s hard to endorse him as a buy with much certainty.
BUY: None; SELL: Daniel Bard.
Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks signed Mark Melancon to a multi-year deal in the offseason, so it’s unlikely they deal him and it’s also not very likely anyone would give up much for him given his first-half struggles (5.12 ERA, 1.55 WHIP). While his struggles could keep him in Arizona, that doesn’t mean he’ll keep the closer’s gig all year. All-star Joe Mantiply (2.21 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) has been a nice find for Arizona and could step into the role if Melancon coughs it up and Ian Kennedy is traded.
BUY: Joe Mantiply (in deep leagues); SELL: Mark Melancon.