Below is a ranking of our top 15 middle relievers, based on their likelihood to get saves this season — not necessarily their skill level. As an example, Kelvin Herrera is a very good reliever who’s unlikely to get any save chances, because he’s stuck behind Wade Davis and Joakim Soria. So although Herrera is a much better pitcher than a number of pitchers listed below, he’s not ranked.
1. Andrew Miller, New York Yankees — The third-ranked reliever according to ESPN’s Player Rater may have lost his closing role on paper, but the 30-game suspension for Aroldis Chapman means that Miller should grab the first eight to ten saves of the Yankee season. If he can produce a streak of scoreless appearances and converted saves similar to last spring’s, he might not stop there.
2. Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays — 20-year-old Osuna came out of nowhere to be very good in the ninth for Toronto last season, and the only thing standing between him and a repeat performance is Drew Storen — who, don’t forget, broke his thumb late last season while raging at his poor performance. Although Osuna’s future is likely in the rotation, he might get one more shot at closing.
3. Jeremy Jeffress, Milwaukee Brewers — Jeffress is rap-battling with lefty Will Smith for the closer’s job in Milwaukee, and has the stuff to be a good fit. Jeffress throws hard, gets ground balls, and has a solid K/9 rate.
4. Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves — Jason Grilli is 39, and coming off a torn Achilles tendon, while Vizcaino (and his high-90s fastball) went 9-for-10 in 2015 save opps. With the Braves expected to reside in the NL East cellar, even a successful season for Grilli could end in a trade, elevating Vizcaino for a second year.
5. Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres — Quackenbush grabbed six saves in 2014, and his road back to the ninth was eased (to say the least) when the Padres replaced Craig Kimbrel with Fernando Rodney this offseason.
6. Jumbo Diaz, Cincinnati Reds — Diaz has a great fastball that induces swinging strikes at an impressive rate, and he’s backing up J.J. Hoover, who doesn’t seem to have the stuff to close in such a homer-friendly ballpark.
7. Joaquin Benoit, Seattle Mariners — Benoit has never been a team’s closer at the start of a season, yet he’s earned at least one save in each of his last eight seasons (barring 2009, when he was out with rotator cuff surgery). He’s solid, and he’s backing up Steve Cishek, so expect the streak to continue.
8. Kevin Jepsen, Minnesota Twins — After Glen Perkins got hurt last year, Jepsen took over and did such a good job that he stayed in the role after Perkins returned. He’ll likely be the first call if Perkins succumbs again to the back trouble that has shortened his past two seasons.
9. Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants — Romo and Santiago Casilla have been passing the mantle of Giants closer back and forth since 2012. Although Casilla has had the job this time since June 2014, Romo is coming off a better statistical season.
10. Ryan Madson, Oakland A’s — Although Sean Doolittle appears to have recovered well from his torn labrum, his decision to avoid surgery increases his risk going forward. Madson is best-positioned behind him.
11. Dellin Betances, New York Yankees — New York’s relievers are so good that we can’t leave Betances out, especially with Chapman starting the season on the bench. If the team struggles, it may decide that its bullpen uber-Cerberus is worth more as a bargaining chip, perhaps giving Betances a shot in New York or elsewhere.
12. Pedro Strop, Chicago Cubs — Strop has a fantastic slider, and anything can happen in a bullpen managed by Joe Maddon.
13. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals — Soria has a history as an effective closer, beginning with the Royals. If things break right, he might get another chance.
14. Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros — We put Luke this far down so he doesn’t realize he’s on the list; see, he still thinks he’s closing. He has the ability, and we think he’ll show it if Ken Giles gets hurt or struggles.
15. The survivor, Philadelphia Phillies — As Philadelphia rebuilds, the back end of the bullpen is a giant question mark. We can’t tell you yet which of their closer reclamation projects and middle-relief innings-eaters will make the roster (Ernesto Frieri? Luis Garcia? Jeanmar Gomez? James Russell?), but whoever does has a good chance at grabbing a handful of saves to go with the team’s handful of wins.