Trade Deadline Buy/Sell Report — National League

SPECIAL UPDATE: TRADE DEADLINE BUY/SELL REPORT (PART TWO OF TWO)

July 16, 2014

Glossary
BUY+: This player has a large chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR Version
BUY+: Ken Giles, Brad Ziegler.
BUY: Rex Brothers, Antonio Bastardo, Joaquin Benoit, Kevin Gregg, Pat Neshek.
SELL: LaTroy Hawkins, Mark Melancon, Trevor Rosenthal, Santiago Casilla.
SELL+: Addison Reed.

Atlanta Braves – Tied with Washington for first place in the NL East, the Braves have the elitest of elite closers, but might be in the market for a lefthanded reliever like Boston’s Andrew Miller to reinforce Luis Avilan. BUY/SELL: None. 
Miami Marlins – With Miami falling off the pace, going 10-20 since June 11, the team may be more willing to listen to offers for 27-year-old Steve Cishek from bullpen-hungry contenders like the Tigers and Giants. Kevin Gregg would probably fill in first, but Bryan Morris projects as the long-term solution. BUY: Kevin Gregg. 
New York Mets – The Mets have been hot lately, and they won’t trade any of the young bullpen arms that have been so surprisingly effective. BUY/SELL: None.
Philadelphia Phillies – Jonathan Papelbon hasn’t won any friends in Philly by announcing his willingness to waive his no-trade clause to avoid the “mind-boggling” fate of staying on “a losing team.” With the Phillies sinking out of contention, most consider him all but gone, which would open the door for closer of the future Ken Giles — especially if Antonio Bastardo also gets moved. BUY+: Ken Giles. BUY: Antonio Bastardo.
Washington Nationals – Rafael Soriano will continue to lead the most stable bullpen hierarchy in baseball — except for a few weeks when Drew Storen went to the minors last summer, they’ve had the same three guys in the top three spots since Opening Day 2013. BUY/SELL: None.

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs are bad, again, but any further trades are unlikely to affect the top arms in their bullpen hierarchy. BUY/SELL: None.
Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman says he’s fine after last night’s All-Star Game injury scare, and the contending Reds don’t need any bullpen help. BUY/SELL: None.
Milwaukee Brewers – Although GM Doug Melvin identified the bullpen as one possible target for improvement via trade, their best move might be the impending return of Jim Henderson from the disabled list. BUY/SELL: None.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Pittsburgh could move Mark Melancon back to a setup role if it can wrest Huston Street away from the Padres. SELL: Mark Melancon.
St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals might not trade for an established closer, but Trevor Rosenthal has been unreliable enough lately to warrant a sell signal anyway. BUY: Pat Neshek. SELL: Trevor Rosenthal.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Last year we reckoned Brad Ziegler would be replaced at the trade deadline, but he held on through the end of the season. This year, Ziegler is purportedly untouchable, while Addison Reed — like Arizona itself — has been woeful, and could use a change in circumstances. Reed is young and cheap, but has his value fallen too far already? BUY+: Brad Ziegler. SELL+: Addison Reed.
Colorado Rockies – Colorado’s owner has insisted that the team will not be selling at the trade deadline; even apart from a deal, you have to figure that LaTroy Hawkins will step aside soon for Rex Brothers. BUY: Rex Brothers. SELL: LaTroy Hawkins.
Los Angeles Dodgers – The profligate Dodgers are in the market for relievers; although they’ve been linked to Koji Uehara, they’d be fools to overlook how unlucky Kenley Jansen has been (3.49 ERA, 1.87 FIP). BUY/SELL: None.
San Diego Padres – Huston Street has made peace with the likelihood that he will be traded, probably to an AL contender. If Street goes, Joaquin Benoit is likely to stay, as the team doesn’t want to lose both of their best options. The Padres are apparently asking for a lot for either reliever, and we think Street is more likely to move, leaving the San Diego ninth open for Benoit. BUY: Joaquin Benoit.
San Francisco Giants – GM Brian Sabean has said that no one in the organization is untouchable, and they may see their rapidly evolving bullpen as ripe for improvement. SELL: Santiago Casilla.

Trade Deadline Buy/Sell Report: American League

SPECIAL UPDATE: TRADE DEADLINE BUY/SELL REPORT (PART ONE OF TWO)

July 15, 2014

Glossary
BUY+: This player has a large chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR Version
BUY+: Edward Mujica
BUY: Junichi Tazawa, Andrew Miller, Josh Fields, Tony Sipp, Neftali Feliz
SELL: Casey Janssen, Joe Nathan
SELL+: Chad Qualls

Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles sit in first place at the All-Star break, but won’t likely be making a big splash at the deadline for a reliever like last year when they acquired K-Rod. Zach Britton has emerged quite nicely as the closer with Darren O’Day right behind him as a strong secondary option. At this point, Tommy Hunter doesn’t figure to be returning to the closer’s role unless a serious collapse occurs. BUY/SELL: None
Boston Red Sox – The defending champs are in last place, but only 9.5 games back in a not-so-hot division. That said, there’s a very strong chance that the Sox trade aging closer Koji Uehara to a contender. If that’s the case, we expect the embattled Edward Mujica to get the first crack at save opportunities. If not Mujica, Junichi Tazawa and Andrew Miller (if he’s also not traded) are next in line for John Farrell. BUY+: Edward Mujica; BUY: Junichi Tazawa, Andrew Miller
New York Yankees – Closer David Robertson is in the final year of his contract, but even with Dellin Betances lurking behind him, the Yankees are still in the playoff race and should stand pat with their bullpen with other more pressing needs elsewhere. BUY/SELL: None
Tampa Bay Rays – You could really play buy or sell with the Rays’ bullpen in the middle of the game thanks to Joe Maddon’s hijinks. BUY/SELL: None
Toronto Blue Jays – Casey Janssen has 14 saves in 16 chances since returning from an early-season DL stint, but the Blue Jays have been linked to both Huston Street and Joakim Soria. Janssen hasn’t been an issue for the contending Jays, but if Soria or Street land north of the border, then Janssen may be the odd man out. SELL: Casey Janssen

Chicago White Sox – The White Sox aren’t very good and nobody wants what Robin Ventura is selling in the late innings. BUY/SELL: None
Cleveland Indians – The Tribe has to be pleased with the way their bullpen has shaped up after a rocky start. BUY/SELL: None
Detroit Tigers – The Tigers lead the AL Central by 6.5 games at the break and are in desperate need of bullpen help. They have been linked to Joaquin Benoit and Joakim Soria, among others, which means Joe Nathan is due for some competition for saves. SELL: Joe Nathan
Kansas City Royals – Greg Holland is second in the AL in saves with 25, and Wade Davis has been terrific ahead of him in the eighth. The Royals are in second place in the division and will be going all out to get to the playoffs in 2014. BUY/SELL: None
Minnesota Twins – Glen Perkins should remain the Twins closer, despite the club sitting in the AL Central cellar. BUY/SELL: None

Houston Astros – Chad Qualls may have pitched himself out of a job in Houston, and not in the way you may think. He’s been solid in the closer’s role, and we think the Astros will trade him to a team that will have him throw primarily in the eighth inning. Tony Sipp has also been great, which means he may get dealt to a contender as well. That leaves Josh Fields as the lone ninth-inning option in Houston. If Sipp stays, Bo Porter may go to Sipp outright or elect to use Sipp and Fields in a committee. SELL+: Chad Qualls. BUY: Tony Sipp, Josh Fields
Los Angeles Angels – Mike Scioscia has recently said that as long as Joe Smith does the job, he’ll continue to be the club’s closer. Jason Grilli remains the handcuff, but rumors have linked the Halos to Joakim Soria. If that rumor holds true, then Smith could be out after all. BUY/SELL: None
Oakland Athletics – Sean Doolittle has been terrific since taking over for Jim Johnson and has helped the A’s to the best record in baseball at the All-Star break. BUY/SELL: None
Seattle Mariners – The Mariners are in playoff contention and a big reason is Fernando Rodney’s terrific season at closer. Seattle will stay pat with its bullpen as it makes a playoff push. BUY/SELL: None
Texas Rangers – Closer Joakim Soria has been part of trade rumors, notably to the Tigers and recently to the Angels and Blue Jays, but we think Jason Frasor is the most likely Ranger reliever to be dealt at the deadline. Neftali Feliz has been solid since his return and should be a favorite to return to the ninth inning if Soria is dealt. BUY: Neftali Feliz

Joe Smith locked into the closer role; Sergio Romo bouncing back

July 14, 2014

Los Angeles Angels – At one point, Mike Scioscia went out of his way to explain that he really wanted Joe Smith back in a middle relief role, where he could use him to get tough outs in the 7th and 8th innings. Well, those days are gone — Smith is locked into the closer role until further notice. Speaking of locked in, Kevin Jepsen has allowed just one run since May 4, a span of 31(!) appearances, with his last four outings coming the 8th ahead of Smith. If Smith should falter, Scioscia could still look to veteran Jason Grilli, but our money is now on Jepsen.

Updated hierarchy: Smith | Jepsen | Grilli.

San Francisco Giants – Sergio Romo has now thrown three solid 8th innings ahead of Santiago Casilla. While Jeremy Affeldt’s name was briefly thrown around for some 9th inning chances, Casilla has seized the job, and Romo has assumed the role of primary set-up man.

Updated hierarchy: Casilla | Romo | Affeldt.

Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays had a nice, civilized 9th inning on Sunday, with Jake McGee taking over for a stellar David Price and pitching a 1-2-3 inning with 2 Ks. Every time this happens, we hope it’s a harbinger of some normalcy in Maddon-land, and thanks to the All Star break, we’ll be able to live with that blissful vision for the next four days.

Hierarchy remains: McGee | Balfour | Boxberger.

Petricka looking like the new White Sox closer

July 13, 2014

Chicago White Sox — After yesterday’s game, it looks like Jake Petricka is moving towards becoming the closer of the White Sox.  His main competition, Zach Putnam, was brought on in the 6th inning and gave up 3 hits and a run in his 1.1 innings of work.  Petricka was saved for the 9th inning and, although it wasn’t a save opportunity after the White Sox scored 3 runs in the top of the 9th, he pitched a perfect inning with one strikeout.  This still could be a committee but Petricka is, at the very least, the top of the committee at this point.

Updated hierarchy: Petricka | Guerra | Putnam.

Atlanta Braves — David Carpenter recorded the save last night.  He entered the game in the 8th inning with a three run lead and then came back for the 9th after the Braves added two more runs to make it a five run game.  It was only Carpenter’s second appearance since coming off the DL, but it was much better than the first.  Shae Simmons still has an ERA under 1.00 so we will leave him at second in line for now but Carpenter could move back into that role shortly.

Hierarchy Remains: Kimbrel | Walden | Simmons.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Jeanmar Gomez picked up the save in the 11th inning last night.  Melancon, Watson and Frieri all pitched earlier in the game so, despite the save, Gomez still does not factor into the Pirates’ late inning plans.

Hierarchy Remains: Melancon | Watson | Frieri.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Grant Balfour/Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays – Jake McGee is out on paternity leave so Balfour or Boxberger should get the call if there is a save opportunity.
2. Jason Grilli, Los Angeles Angels – Joe Smith has pitched in 2 straight and 3 of the last 4.

Hector Rondon blows save, Boxberger continues to pitch well

July 12, 2014

Chicago Cubs — Hector Rondon blew his third save of the season last night, as he couldn’t protect a one run lead.  Rondon has not been terrible lately, but he has given up a run in three of his last six appearances.  Neil Ramirez, on the other hand, has made seven straight scoreless appearances and has an ERA barely over 1.00.  If Rondon blows a couple more saves, the Cubs will have to give Ramirez a look.

Hierarchy remains: Rondon | Ramirez | Strop.
Hector Rondon to Hot Seat

Tampa Bay Rays — Grant Balfour came on for the 9th inning of a tie game yesterday and promptly gave up three runs, while only recording one out.  Joel Peralta also gave up two runs in his last time out.  Meanwhile, Brad Boxberger pitched a scoreless inning last night and hasn’t given up a run in his last 9.1 innings of work.  Boxberger has already received one save in the Rays crazy committee and could see more chances if Balfour and Peralta continue to struggle.

Updated Hierarchy: McGee | Balfour | Boxberger.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Neil Ramirez, Chicago Cubs – Hector Rondon blew the save last night and has thrown in 2 straight and 3 of the last 4.
2. Jonathan Broxton, Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman has pitched in 4 straight.