Under the Hood: Alzolay and Hader outlooks moving forward

This week’s under the hood sets its sights on the early struggles by Adbert Alzolay, removing him from the closer role in Chicago in the near-term, and Josh Hader suffering from some bad luck in his results.

Adbert Alzolay, Chicago Cubs

Not much has gone right for Alzolay, he’s already suffered more blown saves (four) in 2024 through 11 games than he did last year (three) over 58 appearances. He’s given up four home runs in only 31 batted ball events and gave up five all last year across 168 batted ball events. He’s matched last season’s home run total with his slider (three) in only 14 batted balls in play.

He’s not throwing with a drastic reduction in velocity and increased his first-strike percent rate. However, when diving into his results on Statcast, one notices an increase in sweet spot percentage by over five percentage points, a boost in his expected batting average (.278), and a 5.02 expected ERA (xERA).

In terms of quality of contact, he’s struggling:

  • 3.2 solid percentage allowed plus 12.9 percent barrel rate = 16.1 good contact allowed
  • 0 percent weak contact and 0 percent pop-ups = 0 percent poor contact-induced

Taking this a step further, here’s his 10-game rolling chart from beginning of last year through his last outing, using strikeout percentage, walk rate, swinging strike percentage, and contact rate allowed:

One notices some shifts in his outcomes during the second half before he landed on the injured list and at the start of this season. With this in mind, here are his splits in some key leverage categories:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/R2jww/1/

If he retakes the ninth inning for Cubs relies on his slider. Comparing his outcomes by pitch, the lack of whiffs, and increased expected results against his most used pitch accounts for his early struggles:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vUjx0/2/

Focus on his slider over the next two weeks, and his usage patterns. It’s tough being patient with a struggling closer, but if he finds his past production with the pitch, better days may happen. However, it’s a tough needle for a reliever to thread during the season.

Josh Hader, Houston Astros

Expecting a repeat of his 1.28 ERA from 2023 would not be realistic, but seeing Hader’s 8.38 ERA entering game play on Monday, April 22 seems like some sort of cruel joke. While sorting out qualified relievers by ERA minus SIERA, he ranks eighth in bad luck with a 5.95 run difference between the metrics. He owns a 2.43 SIERA, almost in line with his 2.34 expected ERA (xERA) from last year.

In fact, his SIERA and 2024 xERA (3.35) set a nice baseline of expectations for his results going forward. Despite his inflated ERA, he owns a 25.6 K-BB percentage, a 14.9 percent swinging strike rate, and a 64.1 strike percentage through his first 11 appearances.

As upsetting as his ERA may be, his usage patterns under first year manager Joe Espada proves more confusing. Hader’s appeared in four games with a lead, in three tied games, and worked in four games with his team trailing. Using Baseball Reference’s leverage ratings, he’s turned in four high-leverage outings, two medium leverage appearances, and pitched in five low leverage contests. Not ideal.

Viewing his underlying data from Statcast, his barrel rate remains in line with last year but he’s allowed a spike in hard hit percentage (45.5 percent) versus his career 32.9 percent barrel rate allowed. Hope lies in his .223 xBA with the sinker against his current .375 batting average against with the pitch, and a .278 expected slugging (xSLG) versus a .458 slugging percent allowed by the pitch. Things migrate toward the mean, and his results will even out.

It’s tough seeing a closer with such a high price point struggle, but focus on his past production with his pitches, and know things will improve:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SoiKP/1/

Houston gets a break with the schedule over the next two weeks, here’s hoping Hader and his leverage teammates turn the tide with regression working in their favor.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community, until next time, stay safe and be well.

Monkey Bytes, April 22: Great Scott it’s a clean save, Alexis Díaz was effectively wild, Game Recaps, and more

Sunday featured another bonus slate featuring a doubleheader in Colorado on top of all 30 teams playing. There were seven saves among the 16 contests, covered next, along with outings of interest in our quick hits.

Miami Marlins – Perhaps turning a corner, Tanner Scott nailed down his fourth save, and second in as many days, firing a clean bottom of the ninth, and striking out one. He threw 11 pitches (72.7 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He owns a modest three-game scoreless streak with three strikeouts versus two walks over his last three innings. Calvin Faucher secured his second hold, tossing a clean eighth and striking out one. Andrew Nardi turned in a clean seventh, striking out one for his fourth hold. Bryan Hoeing gave up a hit and recorded a strikeout in a scoreless sixth for his first hold.

During his two saves this weekend, Scott threw 21 of 27 pitches in the strike zone (77.8 Strike%). Command has been his main problem since early spring outings, here’s hoping he’s trending in the right direction.

Hierarchy remains: Tanner Scott | Andrew Nardi | Calvin Faucher

Cincinnati Reds – Securing his fourth save, Alexis Díaz tossed a scoreless ninth, walking one, and striking out one. He threw 19 pitches (9 strikes – 47.4 Strike%) without recording a whiff. He owns a 1.18 WHIP with 11 strikeouts versus six walks through 9.1 innings, and he’s posted five straight scoreless outings. Lucas Sims tossed a scoreless eighth, walking one and striking out one for his fifth hold. Fernando Cruz notched his fifth hold, working around a hit and a walk while striking out one during a scoreless seventh. Emilio Pagán collected his second win, logging two scoreless frames, yielding a hit, and striking out one.

Adjusted Hierarchy: Alexis Díaz | Lucas Sims / Fernando Cruz

Milwaukee Brewers – Locking down his third save, Joel Payamps fired a clean ninth, preserving a shutout, and striking out one in St. Louis. He threw nine pitches (77.8 Strike%) and generated two whiffs (22.2 SwStr%). He’s turned in six straight scoreless outings, converting two of three save chances with four strikeouts against one walk over 5.1 innings. Elvis Peguero notched his third hold, giving up a hit and a walk over two-thirds scoreless in the eighth. Bryan Hudson collected his first win, logging 2.1 scoreless frames, recording four strikeouts on 35 pitches (23 strikes – 65.7 Strike%) with four whiffs.

Updated hierarchy: *Joel Payamps | *Trevor Megill | Abner Uribe

Arizona Diamondbacks – Hanging on for his fourth save, Kevin Ginkel allowed a one-out double by Matt Chapman, and a two-out, RBI double by Thairo Estrada before a game-ending strikeout of Mike Yastrzemski, closing out a 5-3 win. He threw 21 pitches (12 strikes – 57.1 Strike%) and produced two whiffs. He’s converted four of six save opportunities this season with a 1.16 WHIP, and 11 strikeouts against two walks over 10.1 innings. Ryan Thompson notched his fourth hold, walking one during a scoreless eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Kevin Ginkel | Ryan Thompson | Kyle Nelson

San Diego Padres – Finishing off his seventh save, Robert Suarez worked around a one-out single by Bo Bichette by inducing a game-ending groundout double play by Justin Turner. Suarez threw nine pitches (88.9 Strike%) while inducing two whiffs (22.2 SwStr%). He owns a 0.93 WHIP with nine strikeouts against four walks through 9.2 innings. Wandy Peralta fired a clean eighth, securing his fourth hold.

Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Yuki Matsui | Wandy Peralta

Texas Rangers – Slamming the door on his former teammates, Kirby Yates retired all four batters faced, one via strikeout, and stranded two runners in the eighth for his third save. He threw 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). He owns a minuscule 0.40 WHIP with 11 strikeouts against two walks over 10 innings. David Robertson received credit for his seventh hold, allowing two hits and an unearned run while striking out one during his 1.2 innings.

Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | José Leclerc

Ancillary Save Alert

New York Yankees – Capping a one-run win, Victor González worked a scoreless ninth, walking one, and striking out one, with this web gem ending the contest for his second save. He threw 23 pitches (17 strikes – 73.9 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (13 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Clay Holmes | Ian Hamilton | Victor González

Quick Hits from April 21

Boston Red Sox – Logging two clean frames, Chase Anderson capped a five-run victory in Pittsburgh. Justin Slaten collected his first win, tossing two scoreless innings, allowing two hits and a walk while striking out two. He threw 34 pitches (19 strikes – 55.9 Strike%) and induced two whiffs.

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten

Chicago Cubs – With leverage roles in flux, Keegan Thompson worked a scoreless top of the ninth, giving up a hit and striking out one during a loss. Adbert Alzolay fired a clean eighth, striking out one on 21 pitches (13 strikes – 61.9 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (16.7 SwStr%) in a low leveraged outing.

Updated hierarchy (for now): *Hector Neris | *Mark Leiter Jr. (HLR) | *Adbert Alzolay 

Chicago White Sox – It’s tough closing out games with three wins on the season, but Michael Kopech fired a clean bottom of the eighth, striking out two versus the Phillies 3-4-5 batters. He threw 13 pitches (10 strikes – 76.9 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (23.1 SwStr%). He’s posted a 1.15 WHIP with 17 strikeouts versus six walks through 11.1 innings.

Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | Steven Wilson | Jordan Leasure

Cleveland Guardians – Wrapping up a four-run win, Emmanuel Clase tossed a scoreless ninth, walking one and striking out one, his third outing over four days. He threw 11 pitches (45.5 Strike%) without recording a whiff. He’s posted a 1.00 WHIP with a 10:1 K:BB over 11 innings.

Hierarchy remains: Emmanuel Clase | Hunter Gaddis | Scott Barlow

Colorado Rockies – (Game 1): Benefiting from a walk-off rally in the bottom of the tenth, Justin Lawrence collected his first win despite giving up an RBI single in the top of the inning by J.P. Crawford, scoring the “place” runner. Lawrence also recorded two strikeouts while throwing 18 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and producing four whiffs (22.2 SwStr%). Nick Mears tossed a scoreless ninth, allowing a hit and striking out one, keeping the game tied. Jake Bird logged two scoreless frames, yielding a hit and a walk while striking out three.

Hierarchy remains: *Nick Mears | *Justin Lawrence (HLR) | Jake Bird

*= closer-by-committee

Pittsburgh Pirates – Appearing for the first time since April 17, David Bednar fired a clean top of the ninth during a loss, striking out one while throwing 10 pitches (70 Strike%) and producing one whiff. He owns a 1.43 WHIP with 10 strikeouts against two walks over seven innings.

Hierarchy remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Colin Holderman

Seattle Mariners – (Game 1): Suffering his second loss, and first blown save, Andrés Muñoz did not record an out, giving up three hits, including a walk-off RBI infield single by Ryan McMahon, and two runs (one earned), in the bottom of the tenth in Colorado. Ryne Stanek worked two scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out one, keeping the game tied. Gabe Speier fired a clean seventh, striking out two.

Updated hierarchy: *Andrés Muñoz | *Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

*= closer-by-committee

Vulture Saves for Monday, April 22

CIN: Since Díaz has appeared in two straight, hierarchy trends toward Lucas Sims receiving the save chance if provided today. Fernando Cruz remains a sleeper, but he worked the seventh on Sunday with Simx in the eighth.

MIA: Scott has worked on consecutive days, along with his set-up relievers (Faucher and Nardi), which may create a save chance for Anthony Bender, but he’s been struggling lately, tread lightly.

MIL: Although he’s been a workhorse, Payamps may get tonight off. He’s pitched in two of the last three and four of the last six days. Trevor Megill could record the first save of his career, so why not bet on being a part of his history?

Vulture Saves for Tuesday, April 23

ARI: If Ginkel pitches today, it will be two-in-a-row, so Scott McGough could get an ancillary save chance as a result.

PIT: Bednar made a non-save appearance on Sunday. If he pitches again on Monday, it may yield a vulture save for Colin Holderman on Tuesday.

SDP: If Suarez logs another save chance on Monday, Yuki Matsui could receive his first save opportunity on Tuesday.

Closer Monkey’s filthy pitch of the day goes to this called third strike fastball by Michael Kopech against Bryce Harper on Sunday, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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