Weekly Hot Seat Update: May 15, 2015

Hot Seat quick hits:

Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Most disturbing stats? — 41% decrease in K/9 from 2014; 69% increase in BB/9 from 2014; 2015 FIP and ERA each higher than his 2013 and 2014 versions combined.
Harbinger of doom? — Melancon has made 16 appearances in 32 games, including the first two back-to-back-to-back save chances of his career.
How’s his velocity? — Down 3.3 MPH on average.
Handcuff? — Tony Watson (0.74 WHIP, 1.89 ERA, 22.1 K-BB%).

Addison Reed, Arizona Diamondbacks
Most disturbing stats? — 7.20 ERA; eye-popping .412 BABIP even with below average (17%) line-drive rate; dead last in ERA+ among closers with 20 or more saves since April 2014.
Signatures on the petition to send him to Reno? — 226 and climbing.
Handcuff? — Brad Ziegler (69% GB, 0.91 WHIP, but 3.77 K/9).
Others getting press? — Daniel Hudson; Enrique Burgos; David Hernandez; Jake Barrett of the Reno Aces.

Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Most disturbing stats? — 8.25 ERA; 6.75 BB/9; WHIP higher than last year’s ERA.
Handcuff? — Bryan Shaw (2.31 ERA, but 4.22 BB/9).
Possible sleeper? — Zach McAllister (10.89 K/9, 2.22 FIP).

Jason Grilli, Atlanta Braves
Surprisingly positive stats? — .391 BABIP means his FIP is less than half of his ERA; exceptional 14.81 K/9 ratio.
Why is he here? — Back spasms and bad luck are a bad combination for a 38-year-old with a “proven closer” behind him.
Who’s that now? — Jim Johnson (3.31 ERA; but is Jim Johnson).

Other notes: although Jake McGee won’t supplant the excellent Brad Boxberger immediately, the leash will get much shorter in Tampa; don’t worry about Craig Kimbrel, whose high ERA seems more a function of bad luck (and pickoff throws to ghosts) than disappearing command; Tyler Clippard will be back in the eighth soon, although Sean Doolittle gave up back-to-back homers at Single-A Stockton on Thursday; Fernando Rodney seems safe for now, if only because Danny Farquhar has been so bad; Brett Cecil and his 6.05 FIP and 41.4% hard contact rate are slowly improving, but still pretty lousy; Kenley Jansen won’t replace Yimi Garcia immediately, but it shouldn’t take long; we think A.J. Ramos will hold onto the job in Miami, but he’s not out of the woods (swamp?) yet.

Addison Reed struggles; Kenley Jansen’s return impending

May 14, 2015

Arizona Diamondbacks –Addison Reed has had a woeful start to the year, and yesterday was no different. He came in to protect a one-run lead, and left after giving up a grand slam, blowing the save and boosting his ERA to an ugly 7.20. Reed has just two saves this year, but after the game he got a half-hearted vote of confidence from Chip Hale. For now, with Hale backing his man, Reed still has the job but is on a blazing hot seat, especially with Brad Ziegler sporting a tidy 1.26 ERA after another scoreless inning on Tuesday.

Hierarchy remains: Reed | Ziegler | Perez.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Kenley Jansen was due back on Saturday, but his return may get moved up a day after Pedro Baez left Wednesday’s game with a right pectoral injury. Don Mattingly said Jansen won’t be activated Thursday, but if Baez’s MRI on Thursday isn’t promising, that Friday return seems extremely likely. If Baez does indeed hit the DL, keep an eye on rookie Adam Liberatore. He took the loss on Wednesday, but had entered the game with 9.2 scoreless innings, retiring 28 of the first 29 batters he faced.

Hierarchy remains: *Garcia | Hatcher | Baez.
* = closer-by-committee.

Miami Marlins -A.J. Ramos picked up his first save as the head of the Marlins committee, pitching a scoreless ninth inning and striking out two. Dunn and Morris both got holds in the game, so the new committee is off to a great start. It’s a committee that won’t be adding Rafael Soriano, however, as the Marlins are no longer considering Soriano for their bullpen despite multiple reports earlier in the week.

Hierarchy remains: *Ramos | Dunn | Morris.

Kansas City Royals — Kelvin Herrera returned from his six-game suspension on Wednesday, allowing one hit in a scoreless ninth inning. He will slide back into his usual seventh-inning role.

Updated hierarchy: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Oakland A’s –Sean Doolittle is set to begin a rehab assignment today. Manager Bob Melvin didn’t say how many minor-league outings Doolittle will need, but the sooner the A’s bullpen can get him back, the better. He should slide back into the closer’s role upon his return.

Hierarchy remains: Clippard | Scribner | Otero.

Baltimore Orioles — Darren O’Day picked up his first save of the season in a 6-1 Baltimore win.

Hierarchy remains: Britton | O’Day | Hunter.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Steve Geltz, Tampa Bay Rays – Both Brad Boxberger and Kelvin Jepsen have pitched in back-to-back games, and Geltz may snag a save in the Rays’ committee.