The top 15 middle relievers in fantasy baseball

March 15, 2014

Our top 15 middle relievers are listed below.  These players are ranked on the likelihood that they will get saves this season, not necessarily on their efficacy.  To cite an extreme example, Craig Breslow is a great reliever who is extremely unlikely to get any save chances since he’s stuck behind Koji Uehara and Edward Mujica.  So even though Breslow is objectively a much better pitcher than someone like Matt Lindstrom, Lindstrom is on our rankings, whereas Breslow is not.

(Holds are not a consideration.  If you would benefit from a post that covers holds, please contact us.)

1. Joakim Soria, Texas Rangers – Now seemingly fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery that cost him the 2012 season, Joakim Soria is making a run at the Texas closer gig.  Neftali Feliz continues to struggle to find his velocity, and Soria could wind up as the closer on a Rangers team that could threaten 90 wins if everything falls into place.

2. Rex Brothers, Colorado Rockies – Even if LaTroy Hawkins has a great year, Rex Brothers could still wind up with five to eight saves, as Hawkins will have trouble going three in a row and Walt Weiss has said he might use Brothers in any lefty-heavy ninth inning.  And we don’t think Hawkins will have a great year.

3. Matt Lindstrom, Chicago White Sox – While sabermetricians are gaga for Nate Jones, there’s no word out of White Sox camp about the closer role, and Matt Lindstrom, whose rehab is going well, keeps saying that he wants the job.  Things Lindstrom has going for him include the fact that he has the most closer experience of anyone on the team, and Robin Ventura’s always-unorthodox treatment of the 9th inning.

4. Danny Farquhar, Seattle Mariners – He’s quite good and Fernando Rodney is not.

5. Sergio Santos, Toronto Blue Jays – As previously mentioned, Casey Janssen isn’t 100 percent, and Sergio Santos had a lights-out end of 2013, posting a 1.75 ERA and 0.58 WHIP after returning from injury.

6. Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians – If John Axford struggles with the long ball (Axford had the 6th-highest HR/FB ratio in 2012 and 11th-highest in 2013), Cody Allen could take over as closer and run away with it.  Allen is only 24 and his K/9 of 11.3 ranked 13th among relievers last year.

7. J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks – Addison Reed is pitching much better this spring than veteran J.J. Putz.  This competition isn’t over yet, but Putz will need to rally to give himself a chance for saves in Arizona.

8. Jesse Crain, Houston Astros – Jesse Crain has been hurt his whole career, and 2014 is already no different.  The righty would be the odds-on favorite to win the closer gig in Houston, but his health is once again holding him back.

9. Joaquin Benoit, San Diego Padres – Stop us if you’ve heard this before: Huston Street is a little bit nicked up.  While Street should be fine for the start of the season, it was 2009 when he last topped 60 innings in a season.

10. Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals – Unlike several other relievers on this list, Tyler Clippard’s inclusion isn’t a knock on the guy ahead of him, as Rafael Soriano has strung together several perfectly decent seasons.  Clippard is on here because he’s been one of the steadiest middle relievers in baseball the last three years, stepping in to the closer role in 2012 and picking up 32 saves.  If Soriano gets hurt, Clippard will do it again.

11. Pedro Strop, Chicago Cubs – The Cubs signed Jose Veras to a one year deal to be their closer, which looks like the classic “sign a veteran stop gap closer and deal him at the deadline when the team is not contending” move.  Those in deep leagues might want to stash Strop, who would likely take over the job if Veras is moved — or ineffective.

12. Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates – Jason Grilli is great, but he’s 37 and coming off Tommy John surgery.

13. Joel Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays – Grant Balfour is going through a dead arm period and has struggled so far this spring, and he already had a deal with the Orioles that fell through due to injury concerns.  If Balfour misses time, Joel Peralta would be a solid fill in.

14. Josh Fields, Houston Astros – Probably the best healthy non-Qualls option in the Houston bullpen right now, Fields has said that he wants the closer job.  He’s allowed 1 run in 4 innings this spring so far.

15. Darren O’Day, Baltimore Orioles – Tommy Hunter hasn’t actually been named closer yet, and though he throws hard, he’s never had the highest strikeout rate, which can be a problem for a stopper.  Darren O’Day struggles against lefties, but has added a change-up as a potential equalizer this year.

Closer Rankings: Nos. 1-10

March 13, 2014

10. Jason Grilli, Pittsburgh Pirates — Had a great 2013, but he’s older than you might think, with lingering health concerns. Still the top option for a team good enough to win a lot, but not good enough to win by a lot.

9. David Robertson, New York Yankees — As the post-Mo era begins in the Bronx, we think Robertson will exhibit the talent to be a top-tier closer option, especially if he can improve his efficiency.

8. Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins — The team was lousy, but it wasn’t his fault. The Twins should almost certainly improve, and Perkins’s job security is excellent.

7. Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers — The 39-year-old was fantastic last year, and he’ll close for a better team in 2014.

6. Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox — Uehara has been very good ever since he entered the league in 2009, but his performance in 2013 was nothing short of shocking. He should have more save opportunities this year, and he remains an elite option, to be sure — but keep in mind that he turns 39 this April, and that he started in Japan for eight years, averaging 175 innings a year.

5. Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals — We’re high on Rosenthal based on his electric work in set-up, but we can’t help but be a little leery of Jason Motte at the same time.

4. Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals — Now we’ve reached the Big Four, the highest level of bullpen excellence. Holland has been fantastic over the past few years, and if the Royals continue their improvement, his stock could rise even further. He did get a high number of save opportunities last year.

3. Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers — For the first 4 1/2 years of his career, Jansen was a catcher who struck out in 27% of his at-bats. Over his last 4 1/2 years as a pitcher, he’s made hitters look even sillier, striking out 40% of batters faced.

2. Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds — Perhaps the best pure stuff in the game, although he walked a few more men than normal last year.

1. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves — Never a doubt; Kimbrel has been utterly unhittable since his rookie season in 2011.

Closer Rankings: Nos. 11-20

March 13, 2014

11. Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants — Romo hasn’t been throwing his slider this spring, so it’s not clear precisely what to make of his lousy spring numbers.

12. Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels — After a disturbingly high ERA last year, Mike Scioscia intends to use Frieri more sparingly this season.

13. Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals — We just don’t trust Soriano, who has been getting shelled this spring — but I guess we trust the guys below even less.

14. Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays — The irascible Australian, rejected by Baltimore, will be out to prove something to his division rivals.

15. Jim Johnson, Oakland A’s — A second straight year of 50 saves, sure, but don’t forget the nine blown saves either. Oakland will probably not present the same wealth of save opportunities as Baltimore has.

16. Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies — Decreased velocity and a plummeting strikeout rate drop the pricy Papelbon into the bottom half of our rankings.

17. Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins — Win a bet with your bullpen-ignorant friends: Cishek boasts the longest active string of successful saves, at 29.

18. Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners — Rodney’s astonishing one-off 2012 season, in which his 3.8 WAR doubled the total from his other ten years combined, makes him the “Gangnam Style” of relievers.

19. Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays — Janssen has pitched well for Toronto over the last two seasons; his reputation suffers because of his subpar team and their hitter-friendly ballpark. A shoulder injury this spring could make his position more tenuous.

20. John Axford, Cleveland Indians — The Ax Man hopes to cut down his sky-high WHIP now that he’s no longer tipping his pitches. Cody Allen is lurking.

Closer Rankings: Nos. 21-30

March 13, 2014

21. Jim Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers — Pitched very well last year and has a bobblehead giveaway to look forward to — but also has Brandon Kintzler and human bobblehead K-Rod on his heels.

22. Addison Reed, Arizona Diamondbacks — The closer who produced the widest variance in our rankings, Reed is either on the verge of a breakout year or about to lose a competition to J.J. Putz.

23. Nate Jones, Chicago White Sox — His tremendous strikeout rate and breakout potential have made him a trendy sleeper.

24. Bobby Parnell, New York Mets — Pitched well last year, but he’s coming off September neck surgery that caused him to lose 30 pounds. We’ll see how long Terry Collins’s “warm feeling” lasts.

25. Huston Street, San Diego Padres — Bad peripherals last year, a history of injuries, a tweaked groin, and Joaquin Benoit waiting behind him.

26. Tommy Hunter, Baltimore Orioles — A very good WHIP last year, but Hunter doesn’t miss enough bats and gives up too many home runs.

27. Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers — As Joakim Soria excels and Feliz struggles to return from Tommy John surgery, Ron Washington is speaking of a closer committee and longing for “a guy who can get three outs.” Ominous.

28. Jose Veras, Chicago Cubs — If last year’s improvement in walk rate wasn’t permanent, Cubs fans will swear he’s a taller Marmol.

29. LaTroy Hawkins, Colorado Rockies — How long will the Rockies be able to keep Rex Brothers — who was three years old when Hawkins was drafted — in an eighth-inning role?

30. Chad Qualls, Houston Astros — A spotty history and two legitimate competitors combine to drop the ursine righthander to the bottom of our spring rankings. To add insult to injury, Matt Dominguez trounced him in the second round of Astros March Madness.

2014 AL East bullpen preview

March 11, 2014

Baltimore Orioles – Tommy Hunter has the inside track to the closer role to begin the season after the Orioles traded away Jim Johnson during the offseason. Darren O’Day will be right on his heels however, as will former Marlin Ryan Webb. Webb didn’t wow anyone last year, but he does have a good sinker and can also baffle hitters with a slider and change-up. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer – Tommy Hunter, Set-up – Darren O’Day, 2nd in line – Ryan Webb.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
BALTommy HunterDarren O’DayRyan WebbTommy Hunter3/11/14

.

Boston Red Sox – The World Series champs appeared destined for another mess in the bullpen last year until Koji Uehara came in and righted the ship en route to a spectacular season. He’ll start 2014 as the Sox closer, but time will tell if he can maintain the numbers he boasted last year. Waiting in the wings will be former Cardinals closer Edward Mujica, whom the Sox signed in December. He’ll likely begin the year as the primary eighth-inning guy, with reliable lefty Craig Breslow and Junichi Tazawa as seventh-inning options. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer – Koji Uehara, Set-up – Edward Mujica, 2nd in line – Craig Breslow.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
BOSKoji UeharaEdward MujicaCraig BreslowKoji Uehara3/11/14

.

New York Yankees – The ninth inning for the Yankees will look decidedly different in 2014 with the retirement of the legendary Mariano Rivera, and David Robertson will have some giant shoes to fill as the team’s new closer. The rest of the bullpen is full of question marks, with Shawn Kelley seemingly favored by manager Joe Girardi as the eight-inning option. Matt Thornton will be the team’s lefty specialist and will see time in the seventh. Dellin Betances has impressed this spring and Preston Claiborne will also be someone to watch. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer – David Robertson, Set-up – Shawn Kelley, 2nd in line – Matt Thornton.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
NYYDavid RobertsonShawn KelleyMatt ThorntonDavid Robertson3/11/14

.

Tampa Bay Rays –Almost an Oriole, Grant Balfour returns to the Rays this season as the team’s closer. He was 38-of-41 in save opportunities last season in Oakland and will replace Fernando Rodney, who departed for Seattle. The Rays feel they have the best bullpen in baseball, and they have plenty of options behind Balfour. Juan Carlos Oviedo, Heath Bell, Joel Peralta and Jake McGee all figure to factor in Joe Maddon’s late-inning plans. Bell struggled last season, but if Peralta struggles Bell may see his more high-leverage time. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer – Grant Balfour, Set-up – Joel Peralta, 2nd in line – Heath Bell.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
TBGrant BalfourJoel PeraltaHeath BellGrant Balfour3/11/14

.

Toronto Blue Jays – Casey Janssen finds himself entrenched as the Blue Jays’ closer, and he’ll have a familiar cast of characters behind him. Sergio Santos will begin the season in the set-up role, while righty Steve Delabar should be called upon again in the seventh. Expect the Jays to use Brett Cecil again as a left-handed option out of the pen along with Delabar. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer – Casey Janssen, Set-up – Sergio Santos, 2nd in line – Casey Janssen.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
TORCasey JanssenSergio SantosSteve DelabarCasey Janssen3/11/14

.