Rafael Betancourt hits DL with appendicitis; Rex Brothers to close

July 20, 2013

Colorado Rockies – Rafael Betancourt has been placed on the DL with appendicitis.  The move is retroactive to July 15.  Rex Brothers will close in his absence.  Hierarchy change: Rex Brothers to Closer, Matt Belisle to Set-up, Wilton Lopez to 2nd in line, Rafael Betancourt to DL.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
COLRex BrothersMatt BelisleWilton LopezRafael Betancourt7/20/13
Rafael Betancourt (DL)

.

Herrera back for Royals, Bailey possibly out for year

July 20, 2013

Boston Red Sox — Andrew Bailey has been placed on the DL and will likely miss the rest of the season.  Craig Breslow pitched the 8th inning last night to pick up his 8th hold of the season and should continue to see more time in the late innings for the Red Sox.  Hierarchy change: Craig Breslow to 2nd in line replacing Andrew Bailey.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
BOSKoji UeharaJunichi TazawaCraig BreslowJunichi Tazawa7/20/13

.

Kansas City Royals — Kelvin Herrera was recalled on Friday and got the last two outs in the 8th in a one run game.  Herrera had 17 strikeouts, and only 2 walks, in 11.2 scoreless innings at Triple-A Omaha.  He should immediately factor into the late inning plans for the Royals.   Hierarchy change: Kelvin Herrera to 2nd in line, replacing Tim Collins.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
KCGreg HollandAaron CrowKelvin HerreraGreg Holland7/20/13

.

Philadelphia Phillies – Justin De Fratus gave up 2 more runs on Friday night and his ERA is up to 5.23.  Jacob Diekman, on the other hand, has been pitching well, as he has not allowed a run in his last 5 appearances.  Hierarchy change: Jacob Diekman to 2nd in line replacing Justin De Fratus.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
PHIJonathan PapelbonAntonio BastardoJacob DiekmanJonathan Papelbon7/20/13
Mike Adams (DL)

.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Jordan Walden, Atlanta Braves — Craig Kimbrel had a long 9th inning last night throwing 25 pitches.

Trade Deadline Buy/Sell Report: National League Closers

July 18, 2013

SPECIAL UPDATE: TRADE DEADLINE BUY/SELL REPORT (PART TWO OF TWO)

Glossary
BUY+: This player has a large chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR Version
BUY+: Blake Parker; Jim Henderson
BUY: Antonio Bastardo; John Axford; Rex Brothers; Luke Gregerson
SELL: Francisco Rodriguez; Rafael Betancourt; Huston Street
SELL+: Brad Zeigler

Atlanta Braves – The Braves are all set at closer, although they might well add a setup arm like Oliver Perez or Jesse CrainBUY/SELL: None. 
Miami Marlins – Steve Cishek and Mike Dunn are likely to remain Fish this season, although pending free agent Chad Qualls could soon be headed to, um, bluer waters. BUY/SELL: None. 
New York Mets – The Mets claim they will need to be “blown away” to trade Bobby Parnell, but even if they remember that he’s Bobby Parnell and change their mind, his value is unlikely to drastically change. Any team who goes to the trouble to pry him away from Queens will probably use him to close. BUY/SELL: None.
Philadelphia Phillies – With Jonathan Papelbon on the market, the euphonious Antonio Bastardo is just a trade away from closing. BUY: Antonio Bastardo.
Washington Nationals – The Nats are set in the bullpen and might add some depth at starting pitcher. Drew Storen might be an attractive option for a team in need of a closer. BUY/SELL: None.

Chicago Cubs – 35-year-old Kevin Gregg is one of the hottest arms available at the deadline, just as everyone predicted in April. If Gregg leaves Chicago, Blake Parker stands ready to take advantage of the opportunity to close. BUY+: Blake Parker.
Cincinnati Reds – Cincinnati’s bullpen has been excellent lately, and Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton are expected to return from the DL soon; the Reds don’t need to make a move in this areaBUY/SELL: None.
Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers have said that they won’t move Jim Henderson, who is well-positioned to move back into closing when they do trade Francisco Rodriguez. John Axford might be moved as well, but even if he’s not, we think he’s more likely to get save opportunities going forward than a traded K-Rod. BUY+: Jim Henderson. BUY: John Axford. SELL: Francisco Rodriguez.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been very good, so if they do make a move, it would probably be only to add a setup manBUY/SELL: None.
St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals have the best record in baseball and a solid bullpen but, like most teams, they would add another middle reliever if the price were right. BUY/SELL: None.

Arizona Diamondbacks – An ugly, unsettled bullpen situation in Phoenix could lead to a deadline move and a new closer; even without a trade, Brad Zeigler probably can’t hang on for long. SELL+: Brad Ziegler.
Colorado Rockies – The Rockies might move Rafael Betancourt in exchange for a starting pitcher, at which point Rex Brothers would again ascend to close. BUY: Rex Brothers. SELL: Rafael Betancourt.
Los Angeles Dodgers – LA might move Brandon League (if anyone would bite) or bring in another setup guy, but none of the changes should affect anyone’s ninth inning. BUY/SELL: None.
San Diego Padres – Huston Street is available, and even Luke Gregerson and Dale Thayer might be on the market as the Padres move into sale mode after a recent collapse. Street seems most likely to be traded, which would improve Gregerson’s value as it lowered Street’s. BUY: Luke Gregerson. SELL: Huston Street. 
San Francisco Giants – Jeremy Affeldt or Javier Lopez could move, but Sergio Romo is safe. BUY/SELL: None.

Trade Deadline Buy/Sell Report: American League Closers

July 17, 2013

SPECIAL UPDATE: TRADE DEADLINE BUY/SELL REPORT (PART ONE OF TWO)

Glossary
BUY+: This player has a large chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR Version
BUY+: Jose Cisnero
BUY: Matt Lindstrom; Glen Perkins; Jared Burton; Ryan Cook; Yoervis Medina
SELL: Koji Uehara; Addison Reed; Grant Balfour
SELL+: Joaquin Benoit; Jose Veras; Oliver Perez

Baltimore Orioles — In the thick of an extremely competitive AL East race, the O’s are likely to stay with their current approach in the bullpen: Darren O’Day and Tommy Hunter pitching effectively in front of an inconsistent Jim Johnson. BUY/SELL: None.
Boston Red Sox — Boston might not be satisfied with adding Matt Thornton; there’s still a chance that they acquire Bobby Parnell, Jonathan Papelbon, Addison Reed, or Francisco Rodriguez, any of whom would significantly erode Koji Uehara’s fantasy value. SELL: Koji Uehara.
New York Yankees — With all the injuries stalking the Bronx this season (including a 97 MPH All-Star Game fastball to Robinson Cano’s quadriceps), the late innings are the least of Joe Girardi’s concerns. Although New York could always add a setup arm, there’s not a pitcher in the world who could derail Mariano Rivera’s farewell tour. BUY/SELL: None.
Tampa Bay Rays
Fernando Rodney isn’t the most reliable closer in the league, but the Rays are still likely to stand pat at this year’s trade deadline. BUY/SELL: None.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays’ bullpen has been the team’s biggest strength this disappointing season, and although they might move a pitcher if they get the right offer, any trade is unlikely to affect the save picture. BUY/SELL: None. 

Chicago White Sox — With the White Sox languishing in the AL Central basement, Addison Reed could be traded if another team makes a great offer. If Reed does move, he’ll either take on a setup role (drastically decreasing his value) or close for a better team (mildly increasing it). On balance, we think the rest of this season will see a slight regression in Reed’s worth to you. Meanwhile, if Reed is traded, Matt Lindstrom will probably be the White Sox pitcher who benefits most. Jesse Crain could be in the mix also, once he returns from his injury, but (as noted in the link above) he’s even more likely to be flipped this month. BUY: Matt Lindstrom. SELL: Addison Reed.
Cleveland Indians — The Indians need to add a lefty arm and perhaps replace Vinnie Pestano, but Chris Perez and Cody Allen are pretty secure. BUY/SELL: None.
Detroit Tigers — Detroit is likely to trade for one or two relief pitchers; although it’s not yet clear whether they will replace Joaquin Benoit with a “proven closer” or simply reload with middle relief reinforcements, we think Benoit’s days as the closer in Comerica are numbered. SELL+: Joaquin Benoit.
Kansas City Royals — Although there’s a strong case that Kansas City should flip Greg Holland now, at the height of his value, the three years of team control remaining suggest that he’ll remain a Royal for a while. BUY/SELL: None.
Minnesota Twins — Glen Perkins is too good a closer to stay on this bad Minnesota team; if he’s traded, he’ll almost certainly be closing for a contender, while Ron Gardenhire goes to Jared (Burton) and dreams of someday getting a ring. BUY: Glen Perkins, Jared Burton.

Houston Astros — With Houston as bad as expected, Jose Veras is extremely likely to be traded this July — but he’ll probably move into a setup role wherever he ends up. Jose Cisnero is expected to succeed Veras, if necessary. BUY+: Jose Cisnero. SELL+: Jose Veras.
Los Angeles Angels
— It’s been a disappointing year for the Angels and it’s unlikely that any exciting bullpen trade news will spark a second-half renaissance. BUY/SELL: None.
Oakland A’s — Oakland might add another arm in middle relief; they were chasing Matt Thornton before the Red Sox sealed that deal. With Grant Balfour facing free agency, though, don’t put it past Billy Beane to deal his All-Star closer, even with the A’s atop their division. BUY: Ryan Cook. SELL: Grant Balfour.
Seattle Mariners — Oliver Perez and Charlie Furbush are both attractive trade bait; Perez’s save chances are likely to drop off dramatically if (and when) he’s moved. Yoervis Medina could benefit as a result. BUY: Yoervis Medina. SELL+: Oliver Perez.
Texas Rangers — The Rangers are very happy with their deep bullpen; any trade they make will focus on their offense or starting rotation. BUY/SELL: None.

The Pedro Strop experiment going well in Chicago so far

July 15, 2013

Seattle Mariners – Charlie Furbush pitched the 8th inning ahead of Tom Wilhelmsen last night, marking the third time out of his last five appearances that he picked up an 8th inning hold.  Seattle bullpen usage has been hard to figure out since the return of Tom Wilhelmsen.  Oliver Perez got a save as recently as 10 days ago, while Yoervis Medina has been better than almost anyone, though recently, he’s generally been pitching the 9th when the M’s have a lead in a non-save situations.  If there’s actually a suitor for Tom Wilhelmsen at the trade deadline (which seems unlikely at this point), then Furbush’s high strikeout rates will throw him in to the mix for Seattle saves along with Perez and Medina.  No hierarchy change.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
SEATom WilhelmsenOliver PerezYoervis MedinaTom Wilhelmsen7/15/13
Stephen Pryor (DL)

.
Chicago Cubs – Pedro Strop got out of a tight situation in the 6th inning last night, and was briefly in line for the win until Matt Guerrier blew the save the following inning.  Strop, so dominant for the Orioles in the first half last year, is trying to regain his form in Chicago, and the early returns are good: He’s now pitched 6 scoreless innings for the Cubs, allowing only 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7.  Kevin Gregg did the Cubs no favors by imploding in the 9th last night, but if he’s dealt, Strop has an outside chance to inherit the 9th inning.  Hierarchy change: Pedro Strop to 2nd in line, replacing Matt Guerrier.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
CHCKevin GreggBlake ParkerPedro StropBlake Parker7/15/13

.