Joel Peralta nudges his way to the front in Los Angeles

March 26, 2015

Los Angeles Dodgers — Chris Hatcher and his Wilsonesque beard have endured some rough outings lately, pushing his spring ERA over 10. Although Hatcher is a virtual lock to make the team because he’s out of minor league options, Joel Peralta may have edged in front of him in the race to lead what appears to be a confirmed committee situation that could also include Sergio Santos, Juan Nicasio, and lefties J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez. As expected, Brandon League will join Kenley Jansen on the DL to start the season, and some in LA are looking Rafael Soriano’s way.

Updated hierarchy: Peralta* | Hatcher | Santos.
*closer-by-committee

Oakland A’s — A struggling Ryan Cook was sent to the minors on Tuesday to fix his mechanics. Eric O’Flaherty and Dan Otero will back up Tyler Clippard during Sean Doolittle’s absence, and young R.J. Alvarez is another intriguing option. Doolittle, meanwhile, is staying busy teaching his coaches about social media.

Updated hierarchy: Clippard | O’Flaherty | Otero.

Boston Red Sox — Koji Uehara, who turns 40 next week, might miss Opening Day with a hamstring strain. Edward Mujica would likely take the closer’s role until Uehara can get healthy, with Alexi Ogando moving ahead of Junichi Tazawa as a backup option.

Updated hierarchy: Uehara | Mujica | Ogando.

Tampa Bay Rays — Grant Balfour made his first appearance of the spring on Monday and expects to be ready for Opening Day. All three of Tampa’s current top relievers allowed a run in the game. Jake McGee is throwing curveballs again and should be back to closing in late April or early May.

Hierarchy remains: Balfour | Boxberger | Jepsen.

Toronto Blue Jays — As expected, Brett Cecil was officially named Toronto’s closer; Aaron Loup will set him up, with Steve Delabar and Miguel Castro behind them.

Hierarchy remains: Cecil | Loup | Delabar.

Colorado Rockies — Walt Weiss told reporters that Adam Ottavino will be the club’s top vulture save option when 42-year-old closer LaTroy Hawkins is fatigued, or watching Matlock reruns.

Updated hierarchy: Hawkins | Ottavino | Axford.

Cincinnati Reds — The eighth inning is wide open for the Reds, according to manager Bryan Price, who named no fewer than five possibilities for set-up work. We’ll leave things the way they are until the situation clears up, but one intriguing option Price didn’t mention is lefty Tony Cingrani, who may find a welcoming home in the bullpen.

Hierarchy remains: Chapman | Diaz | LeCure.

Chris Hatcher emerging as frontrunner for Dodgers’ closer gig

March 19, 2015

Los Angeles Dodgers – A new name has emerged in the most unsettled bullpen in the big leagues. Chris Hatcher, a former catcher (just like Kenley Jansen!) has been turning heads in camp, and some members of the media have anointed him the frontrunner for the closer job. Don Mattingly has remained quiet about bullpen roles, and we still think Joel Peralta is a very strong possibility (and his most recent outing was a good one), but beat writers tend to know best, so we’ll move him to the top of the committee for now. Another candidate to watch is former Blue Jays closer Sergio Santos. Santos wasn’t even considered a lock to make the team as recently as a few weeks ago, but a strong spring has put him in the conversation. Meanwhile, Brandon League is taking some time off due to shoulder soreness.

Updated hierarchy: *Hatcher | Peralta | Santos.
*closer-by-committee

Toronto Blue Jays – Thanks to an injury to Marcus Stroman, signs are pointing to a spot in the rotation for promising youngster Aaron Sanchez. That basically clears Brett Cecil’s path to the Opening Day closer gig.

Updated hierarchy: Cecil | Loup | Delabar.

New York Yankees – Though Joe Girardi said the closer role would be determined by a spring training competition between Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, most of the speculation was that Betances would be the guy. (Which is why we ranked him so highly on our preseason closer rankings.) We still don’t have a definitive answer, but nothing drastic has changed; Betances is still the frontrunner and likely closer for the Bombers.

Hierarchy remains: Betances | Miller | Carpenter.

Oakland A’s – Tyler Clippard has let his once-surefire gig as interim closer slip a bit, as a few tough preseason outings have brought Ryan Cook — and Eric O’Flaherty and Dan Otero — into the conversation. Sean Doolittle will start his throwing program soon, so this could just be a short-term problem for Oakland, and to be clear, we still think Clippard is the best healthy reliever to own. But the situation warrants watching in the coming weeks.

Hierarchy remains: Clippard | Cook | O’Flaherty.

Tampa Bay Rays – In the race to close games in Tampa’s sans-McGee bullpen, Grant Balfour had a few distinct advantages. He has the most experience in the role, he had expressed an interest in it, and most importantly, Kevin Cash had mentioned him as a possibility. But Balfour has missed the last few weeks of spring training following the death of his father, while Brad Boxberger has come out of the gate with three scoreless innings. With his strong start, we think Boxberger has pulled even with Balfour, and suspect the Opening Day closer will be largely determined by which player looks better over the next couple weeks.

Hierarchy remains: Balfour | Boxberger | Jepsen.

Top 30 relievers for holds leagues

Holds are a notoriously difficult category to predict due to the number of variables involved. Relievers who rack up a ton of holds are often solid relievers on good teams who come in ahead of strong closers in the 7th and 8th innings. Good closers will prevent very talented relievers from taking over the 9th inning duties, leaving these fantasy studs perfectly positioned to rack up holds every night. Additionally, being on good teams simply provides more hold opportunities because these teams are more often ahead in the late innings. Because it is difficult to predict injuries and changes in the hierarchy before the season starts (that’s why we are here!), the following rankings are those pitchers most likely to get a lot of holds over the course of the season. There is also value added to guys who are going to be guaranteed to get some saves due to a closer injury to start the season.

1. Wade Davis
2. Andrew Miller
3. Jordan Walden
4. Jason Grilli
5. Tyler Clippard
6. Jake Petricka
7. Tony Watson

With the exception of Clippard, who will at least begin the season as Oakland’s closer with Sean Doolittle injured, this group represents the cream of the set-up man crop. Each of these players will set-up elite closers and reap the benefits of numerous hold opportunities. Their stock will be further bolstered by their stability in their roles. If they out-grow their set-up role, they will trade hold opportunities for save opportunities.

8. Joel Peralta
9. Brad Boxberger
10. Casey Janssen
11. Darren O’Day
12. Jenrry Mejia
13. Joakim Soria

Peralta and Mejia will begin the season in the closer spot, but their real value will be piling up holds once Kenley Jansen and Bobby Parnell return from injury. The early-season saves will be a nice bonus. Joakim Soria will get holds for as long as Joe Nathan can resist imploding this season. Again, Soria’s biggest upside will be stepping in for Nathan, but even if Nathan can stay the Tigers closer, Soria will be setting him up without much of a challenge from Joba Chamberlain or Al Alburquerque.

14. Will Smith
15. Aaron Sanchez
16. J.P. Howell
17. Kelvin Herrera
18. Aaron Loup

LOOGYs are valuable fantasy players for only one reason: holds. Given a hold opportunity, a pitcher can tally one by recording a single out. Lefty specialists will be an asset only if they are consistently used in that role, given the fact that they will not log many innings. Aaron Loup, J.P. Howell, and Will Smith should be used to get tough lefties out on a consistent basis.

19. Casey Fien
20. Bryan Shaw
21. Ken Giles
22. Jumbo Diaz
23. Tanner Scheppers
24. Danny Farquhar

If you checked out our Top 15 Middle Relievers post, you may be surprised to see Ken Giles low on this list. While Giles may be a good fantasy gamble in the saves category if you think Jonathan Papelbon’s Philly days are numbered, Giles’s production in the holds category is much more limited. Even if Pap is the Phillies closer all year, it is likely that the team loses close to 100 games. On a team that bad, holds are harder to come by. That said, when the game is on the line in the 7th or 8th, expect Giles to grab some holds.

25. Pedro Strop
26. Mike Dunn
27. Brad Zeigler
28. Jonathan Broxton
29. Edward Mujica
30. Sergio Romo

Given the number of relievers on each team, these lower-ranked players could still yield significant dividends if they find themselves in advantageous roles. Guys like Pedro Strop and Jonathan Broxton will always make their owners anxious, but when you throw 100 MPH, managers will give you a shot in big spots.

2015 Top 15 Middle Relievers

Our top 15 middle relievers are listed below.  These players are ranked on the likelihood that they will get saves this season, not necessarily on how good they are.  To cite an example, Kelvin Herrera is a great reliever who is unlikely to get any save chances since he’s stuck behind studs Greg Holland and Wade Davis.  So even though Herrera is a much better pitcher than a number of pitchers list below, he is not in our rankings.

1. Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies – Ken Giles has electric stuff and is coming off a rookie season in which he finished fourth in National League Rookie of the Year voting as a middle reliever.  Giles can hit triple-digits with his fastball and struck out an incredible 64 batters in just 45.2 innings last season.  The Phillies would like to trade closer Jonathan Papelbon and if they do, Giles could step in and immediately be a top 10 fantasy closer.

2. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays – Aaron Sanchez spent some time as closer for the Blue Jays at the end of 2014 and could be an option to do it again in 2015.  However, he is also competing for a spot in the starting rotation.  He will be somebody to track up until the start of the season because if he ends up in the Blue Jays bullpen, he should have a good chance to close for them.

3. Tyler Clippard, Oakland A’s – Sean Doolittle will start the season on the DL and Clippard should get the first shot at closing.  Clippard has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past four season, and saved 32 games in 2012 for the Nationals so he’s proven he can handle the job.

4. Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays – Balfour really struggled last season in his first year with the Rays but it was only two years ago that he saved 38 games for A’s.  Balfour could start the season as closer with Jake McGee injured, and if he can get off to a good start, he could keep the job and be the guy that the Rays thought they were getting when they signed him last off-season.

5. Joakim Soria, Detroit Tigers – Soria is slotted to start the season as the set-up man for closer Joe Nathan.  However, the 40-year-old Nathan is coming off a miserable season and with Soria’s closing experience, including 17 saves last season before being traded, he could take over as closer if Nathan doesn’t bounce back this year.

6. Joel Peralta, Los Angeles Dodgers – Closer Kenley Jansen is expected to miss at least the first month of the season and Joel Peralta should get the chance to close while he is out.  Peralta made his spring debut yesterday and his shoulder felt good.  Peralta is unlikely to keep the job when Jansen comes back but he could still rack up a solid number of saves, especially if Jansen has any setbacks.

7. Brad Ziegler, Arizona Diamondbacks – Manager Chip Hale has said that Ziegler would close if Addison Reed needs a day off or was to get injured.  Reed has been battling shoulder soreness, and although he is expected to be ready for the start of the season, Ziegler could get save chances if Reed’s shoulder acts up at all during the regular season.

8. Bobby Parnell, New York Mets – Bobby Parnell expects to be the Mets’ closer when he returns from injury.  Unfortunately, there isn’t a good timeframe on when Parnell will be ready as he still doesn’t even know when he will pitch for the first time this spring.  The longer Parnell is out, the better chance Jenrry Mejia has to solidify himself as the Mets’ closer.  We still expect Parnell to get a chance to save some games for the Mets this season so he is somebody to keep an eye on if you need saves.

9. Andrew Miller, New York Yankees – The Yankees brought in Andrew Miller this season and he is expected to be a big part of the back-end of their bullpen.  He is battling Dellin Betances for the role of closer, and even if he doesn’t win the job, he could still see some save chances based on match-ups.

10. Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays – Boxberger, the second member of the Rays bullpen to make the list, had a fantastic season in 2014.  He struck out a Rays’ team record 104 batters as a reliever last year.  He has a shot at closing to start the season, and could thrive in the role, but we think he is behind Balfour at this point.

11. John Axford, Colorado Rockies – LaTroy Hawkins is 42 years old and even though he had a good season last year, you never know what to expect from a pitcher at that age.  Axford seems likely to get the first shot at closing if something happens to Hawkins.

12. Jonathan Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers – Broxton was in line to close for the Brewers this year until they re-signed Francisco Rodriguez.  If anything happens to K-Rod, Broxton should be able to step in and handle the job.

13. Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals – Wade Davis is one of the best relievers in baseball, and if he wasn’t behind a top-3 closer in Greg Holland, he would be much higher on this list.  There is little doubt that Wade Davis could handle the job, but unfortunately it will take an injury to Greg Holland for him to get a chance.

14. Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres – Kevin Quackenbush picked up 6 saves at the end of last year while Benoit was hurt.  Benoit is back as closer for 2015 but manager Bud Black has said that other relievers could see save chances, so Quackenbush could be a source of saves for teams in 2015.

15. Brandon League, Los Angeles Dodgers – Brandon League is another option to close for the Dodgers while Jansen is out.  Manager Don Mattingly has said that League has been working really hard.  If League can turn that hard work into good results, he could be a cheap source of saves in 2015.

 

 

2015 Tiered Closer Rankings

The Closer Monkey contributors pooled our collective personal closer rankings together and averaged the results; below is our composite list, sorted into tiers for your drafting convenience. Enjoy!

Tier 1 – The Elite
1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Craig Kimbrel
3. Greg Holland

Analysis: Not a lot needs to be said about this trio, but we’ll gush about them a bit anyway. They’re dominant, they have high strikeout rates, and they have proven track records of success.

The “maybe we should move him to the rotation” discussion that normally follows Chapman around all spring has finally dissipated this year, and he’s ready to follow up on what many considered his best season. Kimbrel continues to do his thing (look otherworldly), while Holland is coming off a year where he actually earned a few MVP votes.

Depending on your league size, an early round pick on one of these guys might mean you can ignore closers until the very last few rounds, where you can speculate on Tier 6 guys or middle relievers and still have a solid composite bullpen.

Tier 2 – The Very Good
4. David Robertson
5. Mark Melancon
6. Dellin Betances
7. Cody Allen

Analysis: The main player to watch here is Betances, who just had one of the best seasons any reliever has ever had. His ridiculous numbers would have been enough to push him into the Elite tier, except for the fact that he hasn’t won the job yet. We think he will, though, so we’ve included him in our second tier alongside three guys who we universally like.

Robertson has yet to fully recapture his magical 2011 season, but he’ll be great on the South Side, and could log 40 saves and 100 strikeouts. Thanks to his great control, Melancon has put up 2 straight years with a sub-2 ERA and figures to get lots of chances on a solid Pirates team. And Allen emerged last year as one of the top young stoppers in baseball whose best years are ahead of him.

Tier 3 – The Reliable
8. Trevor Rosenthal
9. Koji Uehara
10. Huston Street
11. Drew Storen
12. Zach Britton
13. Kenley Jansen

Analysis: This tier contains our two favorite veterans (Uehara and Street) mixed in with some promising youngsters.

Rosenthal had some bumpy moments and an unsightly WHIP last year, but did more than enough (45 saves, 11.1 K/9) to be included here. Storen’s deceptive delivery and good control led him to a 1.12 ERA last season. And Zach Britton’s nasty sinker suggests that he’ll still be able to get outs even if he’s not striking out the world.

Finally, this tier was a good spot for Kenley Jansen, an absolutely dominant stopper on a Dodgers team that’s going to win a lot of games. But Jansen, of course, is likely to miss the first month of the season, and might need some time to get up to speed.

Tier 4 – Safe-ish
14. Steve Cishek
15. Glen Perkins
16. Hector Rondon
17. Fernando Rodney
18. Sean Doolittle
19. Jonathan Papelbon

Analysis: Save for Cishek, who is really a Tier 3/Tier 4 tweener, there are minor concerns with every player listed here, from staying healthy (Perkins, Doolittle); to inexperience (Rondon); to past volatility (Rodney); to the fact that literally no one likes you including your own fan base (Papelbon).

But it seems likely that at least four of these six players will be perfectly fine and will hold their jobs for much or all of the season. If you’re going with a cheap saves approach — minimal draft investment combined with waiver wire dominance — you might want to think about snagging someone from this tier to keep you afloat until you can accumulate enough players through free agency.

Tier 5 – Hold on for the ride
20. Santiago Casilla
21. Joaquin Benoit
22. Jake McGee
23. Francisco Rodriguez
24. Addison Reed

Analysis: We’ve now reached the point where every remaining player has a moderate-to-major concern. It’s also where we’ll kick up our analysis a bit, since these players are always the most interesting.

Casilla is okay, but he’s far from dominant and will probably be on a short leash, since Sergio Romo has ample experience in the closer role. Benoit still hasn’t pitched in a spring training game, and can’t go three days in a row even when perfectly healthy. Jake McGee is great, but he’s coming off elbow surgery and is targeting a late April return. Even if he gets up to speed quickly, Brad Boxberger or Grant Balfour could be locked in to the role by then.

Francisco Rodriguez started hot last year, but tailed off significantly down the stretch and still hasn’t reported to camp. Finally, Addison Reed is just kinda bad, plus he’s dealing with shoulder soreness. Pick your poison here, as there are probably only two 30+ save guys in this fivesome.

Tier 6 – Yikes
25. Neftali Feliz
26. Joe Nathan
27. Luke Gregerson
28. Jenrry Mejia
29. Brett Cecil
30. LaTroy Hawkins

Analysis: This tier is where fantasy seasons are sometimes made, as there’s always a closer or two at the bottom of everyone’s list who goes on to defy expectations and have a great year. Obviously, it’s just hard to figure out who that player is.

Our bottom six starts with Neftali Feliz, whose velocity vanished last season. Though he’s put in a lot of work in the offseason, he also talked about not needing — or seemingly even wanting — to raise his strikeout rate. Yikes.

Joe Nathan is 40 years old, and had a 4.81 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 2014. Yikes.

Luke Gregerson was solid last year, but his numbers were a bit inflated by a lucky BABIP. Additionally, he plays for the terrible Astros and hasn’t even won the job yet. Yikes.

Jenrry Mejia also doesn’t have the gig for sure yet; in fact, Terry Collins has said that he needs to be “lights out” to prevent Bobby Parnell from taking over upon his return. Yikes.

Brett Cecil is the presumed frontrunner in Toronto, but megaprospect Aaron Sanchez is breathing down his neck and the Jays are clearly unsettled about their closer situation, having kicked the tires on Jonathan Papelbon. Yikes.

And finally, though we adore LaTroy Hawkins as a human being, nobody at Closer Monkey thinks he can pull off last year’s magic trick, where he saved 23 games and had a 3.31 ERA, despite the fact that he only struck out 5.3 hitters per 9 innings, and played half his games in Coors Field. Yeah. Yikes.

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