Luke Gregerson confirmed as Astros closer

March 31, 2015

Houston Astros – Luke Gregerson will close for the Astros to start the season, manager AJ Hinch said this afternoon. Gregerson was the frontrunner for the job after signing a 3-year, $18.5 million contract with the Astros in the offseason, and solidified his status with a strong spring. Chad Qualls and Pat Neshek also had excellent springs, and will fill the 7th and 8th innings. It isn’t apparent who would fill in on nights when Gregerson is unavailable, but we’ll give the edge to Qualls, who closed last season.

Hierarchy remains: Gregerson | Qualls | Neshek.

Chicago White Sox – Jake Petricka has been battling forearm and elbow soreness for the past week and will open the season on the disabled list. Petricka was the heavy favorite to set up for David Robertson (who was battling a sore forearm himself earlier this spring), and the White Sox may have to mix and match until his return. Zach Putnam has had an awful spring, though he’s come around as of late; given his brief experience in the closer role, we’ll move him to first in line by default. Javy Guerra and Zach Duke will likely see their roles increase as well.

Updated hierarchy: Robertson | Putnam | Guerra.

Washington Nationals – The injury bug has been buzzing around the Nats clubhouse all spring, and their top two relievers have gotten bit. Drew Storen left a game yesterday after popping a blister on his foot. He doesn’t expect to miss any regular season time, but Casey Janssen might — the set-up man has been battling shoulder tendonitis. Craig Stammen stands to inherit 8th inning duties if Janssen is out.

Hierarchy remains: Storen | Janssen | Stammen.

Los Angeles Dodgers – We’re continuing to look for some clarity in the Los Angeles bullpen, but it seems more and more likely that Don Mattingly will head into the regular season with a closer-by-committee. The two leading candidates for the job, Joel Peralta (5.68 ERA in 6.1 spring IPs) and Chris Hatcher (7.36 ERA in 7.1 IPs) have done little to distinguish themselves; meanwhile, once-darkhorse Sergio Santos had a rough outing the other day and saw his own spring ERA jump to 4.70. Santos is still an interesting candidate, as he’s got the past experience and is consistently missing bats (10 Ks in 7.2 IPs). But given his contract status, he’s not even a lock to make the team. Those in deep leagues or leagues with holds may want to look at the only reliever who has been dominant for the Dodgers this spring: lefty Paco Rodriguez (9.1 IPs, 0.00 ERA, 0.32 WHIP, 12 Ks, 0 BBs). Given J.P. Howell’s pedestrian spring (6.2 IPs, 8.10 ERA), Rodriguez could jump him as the go-to lefty in the Dodgers pen, and potentially snag an occasional save when matchups are right.

Hierarchy remains: Peralta* | Hatcher | Santos.
*closer-by-committee

Boxberger and Mujica expected to see save chances to start season

March 30, 2015

Tampa Bay Rays — The Rays have several options to close while Jake McGee is out.  Grant Balfour should be ready for the start of the season after missing a couple weeks due to the passing away of his father.  However, it looks like Brad Boxberger will see the most save chances.  Boxberger had over 100 strikeouts last year and could thrive in the closer’s role to start the season.

Updated hierarchy:  Boxberger* | Balfour | Jepsen.
* – closer-by-committee

Boston Red Sox — It looks like closer Koji Uehara will not be ready to close at the beginning of the season for the Red Sox.  Manager John Farrell has said that Edward Mujica will close if Uehara is unavailable.

Updated hierarchy: Mujica | Ogando | Tazawa.

Oakland A’s — Manager Bob Melvin confirmed that Tyler Clippard will begin the season as their closer.  Sean Doolittle is still working his way back from a shoulder injury and felt good after his first throwing session on Friday.

Hierarchy remains: Clippard | O’Flaherty | Otero.

New York Mets — Bobby Parnell could be back for the Mets sooner than the original May 1st target date.  Parnell’s velocity has been down so far but he is not concerned by the radar gun readings as he works his way back.  Parnell could challenge Mejia for the closer’s job when he returns.

Hierarchy remains: Mejia | Familia | Black.

Joel Peralta nudges his way to the front in Los Angeles

March 26, 2015

Los Angeles Dodgers — Chris Hatcher and his Wilsonesque beard have endured some rough outings lately, pushing his spring ERA over 10. Although Hatcher is a virtual lock to make the team because he’s out of minor league options, Joel Peralta may have edged in front of him in the race to lead what appears to be a confirmed committee situation that could also include Sergio Santos, Juan Nicasio, and lefties J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez. As expected, Brandon League will join Kenley Jansen on the DL to start the season, and some in LA are looking Rafael Soriano’s way.

Updated hierarchy: Peralta* | Hatcher | Santos.
*closer-by-committee

Oakland A’s — A struggling Ryan Cook was sent to the minors on Tuesday to fix his mechanics. Eric O’Flaherty and Dan Otero will back up Tyler Clippard during Sean Doolittle’s absence, and young R.J. Alvarez is another intriguing option. Doolittle, meanwhile, is staying busy teaching his coaches about social media.

Updated hierarchy: Clippard | O’Flaherty | Otero.

Boston Red Sox — Koji Uehara, who turns 40 next week, might miss Opening Day with a hamstring strain. Edward Mujica would likely take the closer’s role until Uehara can get healthy, with Alexi Ogando moving ahead of Junichi Tazawa as a backup option.

Updated hierarchy: Uehara | Mujica | Ogando.

Tampa Bay Rays — Grant Balfour made his first appearance of the spring on Monday and expects to be ready for Opening Day. All three of Tampa’s current top relievers allowed a run in the game. Jake McGee is throwing curveballs again and should be back to closing in late April or early May.

Hierarchy remains: Balfour | Boxberger | Jepsen.

Toronto Blue Jays — As expected, Brett Cecil was officially named Toronto’s closer; Aaron Loup will set him up, with Steve Delabar and Miguel Castro behind them.

Hierarchy remains: Cecil | Loup | Delabar.

Colorado Rockies — Walt Weiss told reporters that Adam Ottavino will be the club’s top vulture save option when 42-year-old closer LaTroy Hawkins is fatigued, or watching Matlock reruns.

Updated hierarchy: Hawkins | Ottavino | Axford.

Cincinnati Reds — The eighth inning is wide open for the Reds, according to manager Bryan Price, who named no fewer than five possibilities for set-up work. We’ll leave things the way they are until the situation clears up, but one intriguing option Price didn’t mention is lefty Tony Cingrani, who may find a welcoming home in the bullpen.

Hierarchy remains: Chapman | Diaz | LeCure.

Chris Hatcher emerging as frontrunner for Dodgers’ closer gig

March 19, 2015

Los Angeles Dodgers – A new name has emerged in the most unsettled bullpen in the big leagues. Chris Hatcher, a former catcher (just like Kenley Jansen!) has been turning heads in camp, and some members of the media have anointed him the frontrunner for the closer job. Don Mattingly has remained quiet about bullpen roles, and we still think Joel Peralta is a very strong possibility (and his most recent outing was a good one), but beat writers tend to know best, so we’ll move him to the top of the committee for now. Another candidate to watch is former Blue Jays closer Sergio Santos. Santos wasn’t even considered a lock to make the team as recently as a few weeks ago, but a strong spring has put him in the conversation. Meanwhile, Brandon League is taking some time off due to shoulder soreness.

Updated hierarchy: *Hatcher | Peralta | Santos.
*closer-by-committee

Toronto Blue Jays – Thanks to an injury to Marcus Stroman, signs are pointing to a spot in the rotation for promising youngster Aaron Sanchez. That basically clears Brett Cecil’s path to the Opening Day closer gig.

Updated hierarchy: Cecil | Loup | Delabar.

New York Yankees – Though Joe Girardi said the closer role would be determined by a spring training competition between Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, most of the speculation was that Betances would be the guy. (Which is why we ranked him so highly on our preseason closer rankings.) We still don’t have a definitive answer, but nothing drastic has changed; Betances is still the frontrunner and likely closer for the Bombers.

Hierarchy remains: Betances | Miller | Carpenter.

Oakland A’s – Tyler Clippard has let his once-surefire gig as interim closer slip a bit, as a few tough preseason outings have brought Ryan Cook — and Eric O’Flaherty and Dan Otero — into the conversation. Sean Doolittle will start his throwing program soon, so this could just be a short-term problem for Oakland, and to be clear, we still think Clippard is the best healthy reliever to own. But the situation warrants watching in the coming weeks.

Hierarchy remains: Clippard | Cook | O’Flaherty.

Tampa Bay Rays – In the race to close games in Tampa’s sans-McGee bullpen, Grant Balfour had a few distinct advantages. He has the most experience in the role, he had expressed an interest in it, and most importantly, Kevin Cash had mentioned him as a possibility. But Balfour has missed the last few weeks of spring training following the death of his father, while Brad Boxberger has come out of the gate with three scoreless innings. With his strong start, we think Boxberger has pulled even with Balfour, and suspect the Opening Day closer will be largely determined by which player looks better over the next couple weeks.

Hierarchy remains: Balfour | Boxberger | Jepsen.

Top 30 relievers for holds leagues

Holds are a notoriously difficult category to predict due to the number of variables involved. Relievers who rack up a ton of holds are often solid relievers on good teams who come in ahead of strong closers in the 7th and 8th innings. Good closers will prevent very talented relievers from taking over the 9th inning duties, leaving these fantasy studs perfectly positioned to rack up holds every night. Additionally, being on good teams simply provides more hold opportunities because these teams are more often ahead in the late innings. Because it is difficult to predict injuries and changes in the hierarchy before the season starts (that’s why we are here!), the following rankings are those pitchers most likely to get a lot of holds over the course of the season. There is also value added to guys who are going to be guaranteed to get some saves due to a closer injury to start the season.

1. Wade Davis
2. Andrew Miller
3. Jordan Walden
4. Jason Grilli
5. Tyler Clippard
6. Jake Petricka
7. Tony Watson

With the exception of Clippard, who will at least begin the season as Oakland’s closer with Sean Doolittle injured, this group represents the cream of the set-up man crop. Each of these players will set-up elite closers and reap the benefits of numerous hold opportunities. Their stock will be further bolstered by their stability in their roles. If they out-grow their set-up role, they will trade hold opportunities for save opportunities.

8. Joel Peralta
9. Brad Boxberger
10. Casey Janssen
11. Darren O’Day
12. Jenrry Mejia
13. Joakim Soria

Peralta and Mejia will begin the season in the closer spot, but their real value will be piling up holds once Kenley Jansen and Bobby Parnell return from injury. The early-season saves will be a nice bonus. Joakim Soria will get holds for as long as Joe Nathan can resist imploding this season. Again, Soria’s biggest upside will be stepping in for Nathan, but even if Nathan can stay the Tigers closer, Soria will be setting him up without much of a challenge from Joba Chamberlain or Al Alburquerque.

14. Will Smith
15. Aaron Sanchez
16. J.P. Howell
17. Kelvin Herrera
18. Aaron Loup

LOOGYs are valuable fantasy players for only one reason: holds. Given a hold opportunity, a pitcher can tally one by recording a single out. Lefty specialists will be an asset only if they are consistently used in that role, given the fact that they will not log many innings. Aaron Loup, J.P. Howell, and Will Smith should be used to get tough lefties out on a consistent basis.

19. Casey Fien
20. Bryan Shaw
21. Ken Giles
22. Jumbo Diaz
23. Tanner Scheppers
24. Danny Farquhar

If you checked out our Top 15 Middle Relievers post, you may be surprised to see Ken Giles low on this list. While Giles may be a good fantasy gamble in the saves category if you think Jonathan Papelbon’s Philly days are numbered, Giles’s production in the holds category is much more limited. Even if Pap is the Phillies closer all year, it is likely that the team loses close to 100 games. On a team that bad, holds are harder to come by. That said, when the game is on the line in the 7th or 8th, expect Giles to grab some holds.

25. Pedro Strop
26. Mike Dunn
27. Brad Zeigler
28. Jonathan Broxton
29. Edward Mujica
30. Sergio Romo

Given the number of relievers on each team, these lower-ranked players could still yield significant dividends if they find themselves in advantageous roles. Guys like Pedro Strop and Jonathan Broxton will always make their owners anxious, but when you throw 100 MPH, managers will give you a shot in big spots.