2023 NL Central Preview

March 16, 2023

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs enter 2023 without a top option at closer, and manager David Ross has said that while he expects someone to establish themselves as the leader in the bullpen, the competition is wide open this spring. The Cubs signed two free agents with closing experience in Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer in the offseason, and they will have the inside track to saves right out of the gate. Also in the mix will be Brandon Hughes, who provides a left-handed option, and was the head of the Cubs committee to end the year. We think that Boxberger will get the first look at saves as the slightly more established option, but Michael Fulmer is younger with more upside and is probably the longer-term option. Rowan Wick and Adbert Alzoley provide some depth in what should be a solid bullpen. Another name to watch is Codi Heuer, who missed all of 2022 after Tommy John surgery, but is ahead of his recovery schedule and might be a decent holds option when he returns.

Starting 2023 hierarchy: Boxberger* | Fulmer | Hughes.
Holds candidates: Fulmer, Hughes, Wick, Alzoley.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds had arguably the worst bullpen in the majors last year, but one bright spot was Alexis Diaz, who ended the year firmly in control of the closer role in the Queen City. Manager David Bell has already said he will be the closer to start 2023, but he may get used before the 9th in high leverage spots. Behind Diaz is a bit of a mess with Lucas Sims handling the primary set up duties, while Buck Farmer and Reiver Sanmartin handling the middle innings. Tejay Antone and Tony Santillian will likely find themselves in the middle reliever mix as well, but both will likely begin the year on the IL, with Santillian a bit closer to returning. We expect Diaz to be the top choice at closer for the Reds all year, and while they may not win many games, Diaz should rack up most of the saves when they do.

Starting 2023 hierarchy: Diaz | Sims | Farmer.
Holds candidates: Sims, Farmer, Sanmartin, Antone (IL), Santillian.

Milwaukee Brewers – After spending years as the closer in the most reliable bullpen in baseball, Josh Hader was traded out of Milwaukee, leaving Devin Williams at the helm. Williams picked up where Hader left off, recording 9 saves in August-September and turning in a K/9 over 14. The Brewers have been a model of consistency in their bullpen rolls, and 2023 looks like it will be no different, with Williams as the clear closer for the Brewers, trade acquisition Matt Bush as the primary set up man, Peter Strzelecki in the 7th inning and Hoby Milner as the lefty specialist. Williams is as safe a closer as anybody, and should be one of the top options league wide.

Starting 2023 hierarchy: Williams | Bush | Strzelecki.
Holds candidates: Bush, Strzelecki, Milner.

Pittsburgh Pirates – If the Reds weren’t the worst bullpen in 2023, it was probably the Pirates, who are now on year 8 of the 5 year rebuilding plan. Like the Reds, the Pirates also saw the emergence of a top closing option in David Bednar, who fought off an early committee to take the reins of the bullpen and never really looked back. Bednar is joined by Wil Crowe, who had an excellent season going before falling apart in August and September, and Yerry De Los Santos, who has showed flashes of being a top flight reliever, but has struggled with consistency. Another option is Duane Underwood Jr. who has excelled at keeping the ball in the park, but is otherwise unspectacular. A pair of Colins, Holderman and Selby, have a chance of making the roster out of spring training, and look like solid relief prospects, but they are better left until they have secured a major league role. Overall, Bednar is a solid choice as the clear closer on a bad team, but he also has a high risk of being traded as he enters his arbitration years, which means the Pirates bullpen is a good one to steer clear of.

Starting 2023 hierarchy: Bednar | Crowe | De Los Santos.
Holds candidates: Crowe, De Los Santos, Underwood.

St. Louis Cardinals – Ryan Helsley emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball last year and finished the season with a sparkling 1.25 ERA with a 13.09 K/9. Helsley’s job is safe, but he does have a pretty large assembly of talent behind him. Giovanny Gallegos spent a large chunk of the year as the closer in St. Louis, despite eventually yielding the job to Helsley. Gallegos will return as the primary set up man and the Cardinals have shown they trust him in high leverage spots. Jordan Hicks and Genesis Cabrera were solid options for the Cardinals in 2022 and they return this year, likely to similar roles. Another option is Andre Pallante has shown a lot of flexibility with the Cardinals as well, but we hope we get to see if Guillermo Zuniga can bring his 102 MPH heat from the WBC to the majors.

Starting 2023 hierarchy: Helsley | Gallegos | Cabrera.
Holds candidates: Gallegos, Cabrera, Hicks, Pallante.