Top 2018 Relievers for Fantasy Baseball Holds Leagues

March 7, 2018

Holds are difficult to predict. Traditionally, holds leaders fit one of two molds: great relievers on good teams with a top-notch closer (e.g. Dellin Betances, Anthony Swarzak), or pitchers with good situational value (like Andrew Miller or Taylor Rogers). In this list, we’ll highlight players we think are most likely to rack up holds over the course of the season. Lefties get a slight bump in value here — because they’re more likely to get a cheap one-out hold — while players who might get a shot to close are downgraded.

Dellin Betances
Chris Devenski
CJ Edwards
Josh Fields
Joe Kelly
Andrew Miller
Bryan Shaw

This first group contains excellent relievers on good teams who are behind top-tier closers. They have stable late-inning roles and should pick up holds because their teams will win a lot. They won’t hurt you in other categories either, because they don’t give up many runners and strike out plenty of guys.

Jacob Barnes
Kyle Barraclough
Alex Claudio
Josh Hader
Ryan Madson
AJ Minter
Juan Nicasio
Darren O’Day
David Robertson
Anthony Swarzak

This second group is filled with pitchers with some drawbacks. Nicasio doesn’t pitch for a contender; Barnes and Hader are splitting the eighth inning; Minter is unproven, and may also win the closer’s job outright. These are mostly solid choices who may get fewer opportunities than those in the top tier.

Brad Boxberger
Sam Dyson
Michael Lorenzen
Tyler Lyons
Addison Reed
Taylor Rogers
Kevin Siegrist
Ryan Tepera
Tony Watson

The third list has lefty setup men like Rogers and Siegrist and less heralded pitchers behind locked-in closers like Tepera and Lorenzen. Don’t expect great peripheral numbers out of these guys, but they should get their fair share of hold opportunities.

Scott Alexander
Jerry Blevins
Steve Cishek
Brandon Kintzler
Jose Ramirez
Drew Steckenrider

Rounding out the list are players who are a few steps removed from the closer’s role, but could still rack up appearances. They may not get holds every time out, but they should get a high volume of chances as workhorses on good teams.

Top 15 Middle Relievers for 2018 Fantasy Baseball Drafts

March 5, 2018

Below are our Top 15 middle relievers for 2018. Please note that these rankings are calibrated for traditional (Saves only) leagues and are thus weighted towards players with the best chances of winning the closer role at some point this year. If you missed them last week, check out our 2018 tiered closer rankings, and stay tuned for our holds rankings later this week.

1. Kyle Barraclough – It’s ironic that the best middle reliever on the team that has the league’s worst closer by our rankings, would be at the top of this list. Wait, no, “ironic” isn’t the right word. We meant “totally expected.” Grab yourself a BearClaw in the mid to late rounds of your draft and wait for Ziegler to lose the job by May.

2. Addison Reed – Fernando Rodney is old and volatile. Reed doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he’s totally decent (exactly 1 strikeout per inning last year, and a 5/1 K/BB ratio) and has closed before. Not a whole lot more to say on this one.

3. Alex Claudio – As a lefty side-armer, Claudio has probably got the least traditional “closer stuff” of anyone on this list. But a lot of people are predicting that Claudio actually wins the job right out of the gate this year. We like for Keone Kela for the Opening Day closer in Texas, but this could easily change based on spring performance — as well as the arrival of a certain Freak. Regardless, if your draft is tomorrow, these guys should all be drafted once the pickings get slim.

4. Andrew Miller – The man now synonymous with the progressive approach to best-reliever-usage, Miller actually did spend a couple weeks as closer last year. This stretch came when Cody Allen volunteered to be the fireman for a couple weeks so Miller could rest his arm and have a more reliable role, and while Miller only nabbed two saves on the season, he’s obviously talented enough to get 50 saves if things break right.

5. Dellin Betances – Likewise for Dellin Betances, who would step into the closer role if anything happened to Aroldis Chapman, at which point the sky is the limit on a potentially great Yankees team. Unlike Miller, though, Betances may have competition from behind him, with David Robertson and Chad Green also around to pitch in should anything happen to Chapman.

6. AJ Minter – Minter had 26 Ks and 2 BBs in 15 IP last year. Whoa. If he stays healthy all season, count on him closing at some point.

7. Cam Bedrosian – Once Blake Parker finally assumed closing duties late in the year, Bedrosian entered the Andrew Miller role, facing off against the toughest part of the opposing lineup before the 9th inning came around. Parker is likely to start off as the stopper, but Mike Scioscia has been fluid with this role in the past, and Bedrosian is the best positioned to capitalize on any weirdness.

8. Brad Boxberger – Despite a little arm soreness after his first spring outing, Boxberger remains in a “wide open” race for the Arizona closer gig, along with Archie Bradley and Yoshihisa Hirano. As mentioned in our last post, we like Bradley to win the job out of the gate, but in 2017, Boxberger looked to be returning to the form that made him a dominant reliever in 2014 and 2015. We’ll keep a close eye on this battle throughout the spring.

9. AJ Ramos – Two things could work in Ramos’s favor this year. Jeurys Familia, who was highly erratic in limited action late in 2017, could fail to recapture his dominance from 2015 and 2016. Or Familia could return to form but be used in the Andrew Miller role, which Mickey Callaway has been discussing this spring already. Either way, Ramos could be worth a stash. (What is that, four Miller references now? Told you he was synonymous with it.)

10. Daniel Hudson – On here because Alex Colome’s name is bandied about in trades a lot, Hudson has solid stuff and could potentially close for the Rays if they decide to tear their team apart midseason or sooner.

11. Bud Norris – Ostensibly, he’s competing with Luke Gregerson for the closer role this spring, but most people (including us) think he’s going to start off as a setup man. But Gregerson isn’t the most inspiring 9th inning option, and Norris had 19 saves last year. We could see him closing by May, or sooner.

12. Juan Minaya – A hard thrower on a team without a ton of great options, Minaya could move in to the closer role if Joakim Soria struggles. Keep an eye on how Nate Jones does this spring as well — so far, early returns are good.

13. Tommy Hunter – With Hector Neris already agreeing to potentially being used in the Andrew Miller role (five now!) for the Phillies, Tommy Hunter is the most likely candidate to get the 9th inning. As with all of these arrangements, we’ll believe it when we see it, but if it happens, we like Hunter a bit better than Luis Garcia to be the beneficiary in terms of saves.

14. Chris Devenski – We feel pretty strongly that Ken Giles’s postseason was a fluke and that he’ll return to dominance this year, but if he falters, Devenski will inherit the closer role on a team that could win 100 games again.

15. Jake Diekman – The Rangers are the only team with two middle relievers on this list — a strong indication that we think this closer role is passed around early and often throughout the year. Diekman has always been a hard thrower, and benefits from Alex Claudio’s presence in the pen, in that the Rangers will have another lefty to go to early in games if Diekman ends up being the best option in the 9th.

2018 Tiered Closer Rankings

March 2, 2018

Here are the Monkey’s closer rankings for 2018. As always, we’ve got them divided into tiers for your drafting ease.

Tier 1
1. Kenley Jansen
2. Craig Kimbrel
3. Aroldis Chapman

Jansen, Kimbrel, and Chapman have it all — proven track records, great ratios, and elite strikeout numbers.  As a bonus, they all play on teams expected to contend in 2018, so they’ll have plenty of ninth-inning leads to protect.

Tier 2
4. Ken Giles
5. Corey Knebel
6. Roberto Osuna
7. Felipe Rivero
 8. Wade Davis
9. Cody Allen

Ken Giles and Corey Knebel would be tier 1.1 if it weren’t for Giles’s postseason struggles and Knebel’s high walk rate.  Even with those concerns, they should still be two of the best closers in 2018.  The other closers in this tier are rock-solid with excellent strikeout numbers.

Tier 3
10. Brad Hand
11. Edwin Diaz
12. Sean Doolittle
13. Raisel Iglesias
14. Alex Colome
15. Mark Melancon
16. Brandon Morrow

Tier 3 is a mix of veterans and youngsters.  Diaz and Iglesias are really exciting from a fantasy perspective, but still a little unproven.  Hand and Colome come with some trade concerns since the Padres and Rays look to be rebuilding.  Doolittle was able to stay healthy in 2017 and was great, while Melancon is hoping to return to form in 2018 after injuries derailed his first year in San Francisco.

Tier 4
17. Kelvin Herrera
18. Brad Brach
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Archie Bradley
21. Blake Treinen
22. Hector Neris

There could be some real value in this part of this list.  Familia saved 50 games two years ago.  Bradley is looking like the next great starter-converted-to-reliever.  Treinen settled into the closer’s role nicely after a midseason trade, while Neris had a stretch of 20 straight successful save opportunities during the 2017 season.

Tier 5
23. Arodys Vizcaino
24. Luke Gregerson
25. Blake Parker
26. Shane Greene

Blake Parker is probably older than you think (32) and the Angels’ bullpen has been as volatile as any in recent seasons, but his strikeout numbers (86 in 67.1 inning) and WHIP (0.83) are very tempting.  Shane Greene doesn’t have much competition for the closer’s job in Detroit, but his walks and low swinging-strike rate could be an issue in 2018.

Tier 6
27. Joakim Soria
28. Keone Kela
29. Fernando Rodney
30. Brad Ziegler

Fernando Rodney always seems to find his way into one of the bottom tiers, but still mostly got the job done last year at age 40.  Will Rodney’s age (he will turn 41 before the season starts) finally catch up with him in 2018?  Brad Ziegler is one of the least exciting fantasy options at closer after recording just 26 strikeouts in 47 innings last year.

2018 NL West Preview

February 28, 2018

Arizona Diamondbacks – Fernando Rodney somehow recorded 39 saves for the Diamondbacks last year, but he’ll be shooting arrows in Minnesota this year. That leaves the ninth inning in limbo, with three arms in line for the closer’s role. Archie Bradley was the team’s best reliever last season, but Arizona may want the flexibility to use him in any key situation, regardless of inning. Two newcomers will battle Bradley for the job. Newly acquired Brad Boxberger has experience closing in the majors, while Yoshihisa Hirano is a veteran closer from Japan who has saved 156 games since 2010. We think Bradley is the best bet for the job, but be prepared for the dreaded asterisk to remain as the season gets going.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Bradley | Boxberger | Hirano.
Holds candidates: Boxberger, Hirano, Neftali Feliz.

Colorado Rockies – The Rockies have the most expensive bullpen in baseball after they signed Wade Davis to a three-year, $52 million contract. They also snagged righty Bryan Shaw in the offseason and re-signed lefty Jake McGee to hefty contracts, and we’ll see if the Rockies get the bang for their buck that they expect. Those three guys are the key arms, but Adam Ottavino and Mike Dunn will also be in the mix for some holds during the season.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Davis | Shaw | McGee.
Holds candidates: Shaw, McGee, Ottavino, Dunn.

Los Angeles Dodgers – The reigning National League champions will enter 2018 with perhaps the game’s most dominant closer in Kenley Jansen. The Dodgers did lose a valuable setup man, however, as Brandon Morrow moved on to close for the Cubs. That means the Dodgers will look to an assortment of options to get the ball to Jansen. Josh Fields is back and figures to be one of the top contenders to pitch the eighth along with Pedro Baez, who is hoping to rebound after a disastrous end to 2017. Don’t sleep on lefty Scott Alexander, acquired via trade from the Royals, who posted an impressive ground ball rate of 73.8% last year. Lefty Tony Cingrani will also be in the mix for holds after joining the Dodgers for last year’s postseason push.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Jansen | Fields | Alexander.
Holds candidates: Fields, Alexander, Baez, Cingrani.

San Diego Padres – The Padres are set at closer with All-Star lefty Brad Hand, though he may not be exclusively deployed in the ninth. Behind Hand, the Padres have plenty of options, with Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen the guys to likely start as the key setup men for manager Andy Green. Keep an eye on Japanese submariner Kazuhisa Makita, whose unique delivery and 80 MPH fastball will be debuting in the majors this year.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Hand | Yates | Stammen.
Holds candidates: Yates, Stammen, Makita, Phil Maton.

San Francisco Giants — The Giants bullpen, plagued by injuries last year, hopes it can remain healthy in 2018. Mark Melancon will start the season as closer, with Sam Dyson and lefty Tony Watson serving as the primary setup men. Watson is more reliable than Dyson, though Dyson somehow converted 14 of 17 save chances with the Giants last year. Will Smith is also expected to be ready for Opening Day after missing 2017 due to Tommy John surgery, and his return will give Bruce Bochy some flexibility in the late innings with how he deploys his top lefties.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Melancon | Watson | Dyson.
Holds candidates: Watson, Dyson, Smith, Hunter Strickland.

 

2018 NL Central Preview

February 28, 2018

Chicago Cubs – For the first time in several years, the Cubs go into the season without a top tier closer to lead the bullpen. Brandon Morrow was confirmed as the closer out of the gate by Theo Epstein, but he has a solid group behind him that could press for saves if he struggles early. Newly acquired Steve Cishek was a serviceable closer in 2016, and posted solid second half numbers with Tampa Bay last year, and will likely be the first fallback option if Morrow falters. CJ Edwards, 26, has elite stuff, but still walks too many hitters and Pedro Strop throws hard but has never taken to closing. Former Tigers closer Justin Wilson is also around, as is converted starter Mike Montgomery. Wilson is the most intriguing of these options as he could vulture some saves as the primary lefty in the bullpen, and will likely pick up situational holds in leagues that count them.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Morrow | Cishek | Edwards.
Holds candidates: Edwards, Cishek, Wilson, Strop.

Cincinnati Reds – One of the only stable positions on the Reds roster last year was their closer Raisel Iglesias. Iglesias posted 28 of the Reds 33 saves in 2017 and looks to be locked into the 9th inning role again. Behind him, the Reds bring back Wandy Peralta and Michael Lorenzen, who held the primary set up role for the Reds despite fairly mediocre numbers. In the offseason, the Reds looked to add some stability by bringing in David Hernandez and Jared Hughes. Hernandez has some closing experience, but is looking to bounce back from a few below average years. Hughes is throws a heavy sinker, which is a valuable skill in Great American Ballpark. Bryan Price was not afraid to run him out for multiple innings at a time last season, so keep an eye on the vulture save watch for opportunities to stream a few saves.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Iglesias | Lorenzen | Hughes.
Holds candidates: Lorenzen, Hughes, Hernandez, Peralta.

Milwaukee Brewers – The bullpen was one of the major strengths of the 2017 Brewers and it is likely to be a strength for them again. They found an excellent closer in Corey Knebel and he will start the 2018 season in that role again. Anthony Swarzak is gone, but his setup role will be split between Josh Hader and Jacob Barnes depending on matchups. Barnes finished 8th in the league in holds last year, and could approach those numbers again if he stays healthy. There was some speculation that top prospect Josh Hader would move into the rotation, but he is in the bullpen for now. Although he is a lefty, Counsell had no problem giving him full innings last year, and that will likely continue. Behind the top 3, former closer Jeremy Jeffress is back, and veteran lefty Boone Logan gives Craig Counsell another matchup arm for the late innings, although he is more of a holds candidate than a threat for saves.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Knebel | Barnes | Hader.
Holds candidates: Barnes, Hader, Logan, Jeffress.

Pittsburgh Pirates – One bright spot for in an otherwise forgettable season was the emergence of Felipe Rivero as a top tier closer. On a better team he would be one of the first closers off the board, but with the Pirates in the midst of a rebuild he may not see as many save chances as Kenley Jansen or Aroldis Chapman. Rivero is locked into the 9th inning for the Pirates, while George Kontos returns as the primary set-up man. After them, there isn’t much certainty. Kevin Siegrest was signed this past weekend, and will compete for the LOOGY role. Steven Brault is the other lefty that could end up in the bullpen, but he projects as a starter so the Pirates may keep him in long relief if he makes the opening day roster.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Rivero | Kontos | Siegrist.
Holds candidates: Kontos, Siegrist, Brault.

St. Louis Cardinals – The St. Louis Cardinals enter 2018 without a proven closer, and manager Mike Matheny has pressed the front office to bring in a reliable 9th inning arm. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak declared Luke Gregerson the front runner, but that was before the Cardinals acquired Bud Norris, who thrived as a reliever last season with the Angels and has an outside shot to win the closer’s job out of spring training. Tyler Lyons could be in the mix as well, but as a lefty, he may be relegated to a specialist role. One intriguing option is Alex Reyes, who is coming off of Tommy John surgery, but looks to be ready in May. For now, look for the Cardinals to play the hot hand early in the season. We’ll give Gregerson the inside track in the committee for now.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: *Gregerson | Norris | Lyons.
* = closer-by-committee
Holds candidates: Norris, Lyons, Reyes.