2015 Top 15 Middle Relievers

Our top 15 middle relievers are listed below.  These players are ranked on the likelihood that they will get saves this season, not necessarily on how good they are.  To cite an example, Kelvin Herrera is a great reliever who is unlikely to get any save chances since he’s stuck behind studs Greg Holland and Wade Davis.  So even though Herrera is a much better pitcher than a number of pitchers list below, he is not in our rankings.

1. Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies – Ken Giles has electric stuff and is coming off a rookie season in which he finished fourth in National League Rookie of the Year voting as a middle reliever.  Giles can hit triple-digits with his fastball and struck out an incredible 64 batters in just 45.2 innings last season.  The Phillies would like to trade closer Jonathan Papelbon and if they do, Giles could step in and immediately be a top 10 fantasy closer.

2. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays – Aaron Sanchez spent some time as closer for the Blue Jays at the end of 2014 and could be an option to do it again in 2015.  However, he is also competing for a spot in the starting rotation.  He will be somebody to track up until the start of the season because if he ends up in the Blue Jays bullpen, he should have a good chance to close for them.

3. Tyler Clippard, Oakland A’s – Sean Doolittle will start the season on the DL and Clippard should get the first shot at closing.  Clippard has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past four season, and saved 32 games in 2012 for the Nationals so he’s proven he can handle the job.

4. Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays – Balfour really struggled last season in his first year with the Rays but it was only two years ago that he saved 38 games for A’s.  Balfour could start the season as closer with Jake McGee injured, and if he can get off to a good start, he could keep the job and be the guy that the Rays thought they were getting when they signed him last off-season.

5. Joakim Soria, Detroit Tigers – Soria is slotted to start the season as the set-up man for closer Joe Nathan.  However, the 40-year-old Nathan is coming off a miserable season and with Soria’s closing experience, including 17 saves last season before being traded, he could take over as closer if Nathan doesn’t bounce back this year.

6. Joel Peralta, Los Angeles Dodgers – Closer Kenley Jansen is expected to miss at least the first month of the season and Joel Peralta should get the chance to close while he is out.  Peralta made his spring debut yesterday and his shoulder felt good.  Peralta is unlikely to keep the job when Jansen comes back but he could still rack up a solid number of saves, especially if Jansen has any setbacks.

7. Brad Ziegler, Arizona Diamondbacks – Manager Chip Hale has said that Ziegler would close if Addison Reed needs a day off or was to get injured.  Reed has been battling shoulder soreness, and although he is expected to be ready for the start of the season, Ziegler could get save chances if Reed’s shoulder acts up at all during the regular season.

8. Bobby Parnell, New York Mets – Bobby Parnell expects to be the Mets’ closer when he returns from injury.  Unfortunately, there isn’t a good timeframe on when Parnell will be ready as he still doesn’t even know when he will pitch for the first time this spring.  The longer Parnell is out, the better chance Jenrry Mejia has to solidify himself as the Mets’ closer.  We still expect Parnell to get a chance to save some games for the Mets this season so he is somebody to keep an eye on if you need saves.

9. Andrew Miller, New York Yankees – The Yankees brought in Andrew Miller this season and he is expected to be a big part of the back-end of their bullpen.  He is battling Dellin Betances for the role of closer, and even if he doesn’t win the job, he could still see some save chances based on match-ups.

10. Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays – Boxberger, the second member of the Rays bullpen to make the list, had a fantastic season in 2014.  He struck out a Rays’ team record 104 batters as a reliever last year.  He has a shot at closing to start the season, and could thrive in the role, but we think he is behind Balfour at this point.

11. John Axford, Colorado Rockies – LaTroy Hawkins is 42 years old and even though he had a good season last year, you never know what to expect from a pitcher at that age.  Axford seems likely to get the first shot at closing if something happens to Hawkins.

12. Jonathan Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers – Broxton was in line to close for the Brewers this year until they re-signed Francisco Rodriguez.  If anything happens to K-Rod, Broxton should be able to step in and handle the job.

13. Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals – Wade Davis is one of the best relievers in baseball, and if he wasn’t behind a top-3 closer in Greg Holland, he would be much higher on this list.  There is little doubt that Wade Davis could handle the job, but unfortunately it will take an injury to Greg Holland for him to get a chance.

14. Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres – Kevin Quackenbush picked up 6 saves at the end of last year while Benoit was hurt.  Benoit is back as closer for 2015 but manager Bud Black has said that other relievers could see save chances, so Quackenbush could be a source of saves for teams in 2015.

15. Brandon League, Los Angeles Dodgers – Brandon League is another option to close for the Dodgers while Jansen is out.  Manager Don Mattingly has said that League has been working really hard.  If League can turn that hard work into good results, he could be a cheap source of saves in 2015.

 

 

2015 Tiered Closer Rankings

The Closer Monkey contributors pooled our collective personal closer rankings together and averaged the results; below is our composite list, sorted into tiers for your drafting convenience. Enjoy!

Tier 1 – The Elite
1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Craig Kimbrel
3. Greg Holland

Analysis: Not a lot needs to be said about this trio, but we’ll gush about them a bit anyway. They’re dominant, they have high strikeout rates, and they have proven track records of success.

The “maybe we should move him to the rotation” discussion that normally follows Chapman around all spring has finally dissipated this year, and he’s ready to follow up on what many considered his best season. Kimbrel continues to do his thing (look otherworldly), while Holland is coming off a year where he actually earned a few MVP votes.

Depending on your league size, an early round pick on one of these guys might mean you can ignore closers until the very last few rounds, where you can speculate on Tier 6 guys or middle relievers and still have a solid composite bullpen.

Tier 2 – The Very Good
4. David Robertson
5. Mark Melancon
6. Dellin Betances
7. Cody Allen

Analysis: The main player to watch here is Betances, who just had one of the best seasons any reliever has ever had. His ridiculous numbers would have been enough to push him into the Elite tier, except for the fact that he hasn’t won the job yet. We think he will, though, so we’ve included him in our second tier alongside three guys who we universally like.

Robertson has yet to fully recapture his magical 2011 season, but he’ll be great on the South Side, and could log 40 saves and 100 strikeouts. Thanks to his great control, Melancon has put up 2 straight years with a sub-2 ERA and figures to get lots of chances on a solid Pirates team. And Allen emerged last year as one of the top young stoppers in baseball whose best years are ahead of him.

Tier 3 – The Reliable
8. Trevor Rosenthal
9. Koji Uehara
10. Huston Street
11. Drew Storen
12. Zach Britton
13. Kenley Jansen

Analysis: This tier contains our two favorite veterans (Uehara and Street) mixed in with some promising youngsters.

Rosenthal had some bumpy moments and an unsightly WHIP last year, but did more than enough (45 saves, 11.1 K/9) to be included here. Storen’s deceptive delivery and good control led him to a 1.12 ERA last season. And Zach Britton’s nasty sinker suggests that he’ll still be able to get outs even if he’s not striking out the world.

Finally, this tier was a good spot for Kenley Jansen, an absolutely dominant stopper on a Dodgers team that’s going to win a lot of games. But Jansen, of course, is likely to miss the first month of the season, and might need some time to get up to speed.

Tier 4 – Safe-ish
14. Steve Cishek
15. Glen Perkins
16. Hector Rondon
17. Fernando Rodney
18. Sean Doolittle
19. Jonathan Papelbon

Analysis: Save for Cishek, who is really a Tier 3/Tier 4 tweener, there are minor concerns with every player listed here, from staying healthy (Perkins, Doolittle); to inexperience (Rondon); to past volatility (Rodney); to the fact that literally no one likes you including your own fan base (Papelbon).

But it seems likely that at least four of these six players will be perfectly fine and will hold their jobs for much or all of the season. If you’re going with a cheap saves approach — minimal draft investment combined with waiver wire dominance — you might want to think about snagging someone from this tier to keep you afloat until you can accumulate enough players through free agency.

Tier 5 – Hold on for the ride
20. Santiago Casilla
21. Joaquin Benoit
22. Jake McGee
23. Francisco Rodriguez
24. Addison Reed

Analysis: We’ve now reached the point where every remaining player has a moderate-to-major concern. It’s also where we’ll kick up our analysis a bit, since these players are always the most interesting.

Casilla is okay, but he’s far from dominant and will probably be on a short leash, since Sergio Romo has ample experience in the closer role. Benoit still hasn’t pitched in a spring training game, and can’t go three days in a row even when perfectly healthy. Jake McGee is great, but he’s coming off elbow surgery and is targeting a late April return. Even if he gets up to speed quickly, Brad Boxberger or Grant Balfour could be locked in to the role by then.

Francisco Rodriguez started hot last year, but tailed off significantly down the stretch and still hasn’t reported to camp. Finally, Addison Reed is just kinda bad, plus he’s dealing with shoulder soreness. Pick your poison here, as there are probably only two 30+ save guys in this fivesome.

Tier 6 – Yikes
25. Neftali Feliz
26. Joe Nathan
27. Luke Gregerson
28. Jenrry Mejia
29. Brett Cecil
30. LaTroy Hawkins

Analysis: This tier is where fantasy seasons are sometimes made, as there’s always a closer or two at the bottom of everyone’s list who goes on to defy expectations and have a great year. Obviously, it’s just hard to figure out who that player is.

Our bottom six starts with Neftali Feliz, whose velocity vanished last season. Though he’s put in a lot of work in the offseason, he also talked about not needing — or seemingly even wanting — to raise his strikeout rate. Yikes.

Joe Nathan is 40 years old, and had a 4.81 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 2014. Yikes.

Luke Gregerson was solid last year, but his numbers were a bit inflated by a lucky BABIP. Additionally, he plays for the terrible Astros and hasn’t even won the job yet. Yikes.

Jenrry Mejia also doesn’t have the gig for sure yet; in fact, Terry Collins has said that he needs to be “lights out” to prevent Bobby Parnell from taking over upon his return. Yikes.

Brett Cecil is the presumed frontrunner in Toronto, but megaprospect Aaron Sanchez is breathing down his neck and the Jays are clearly unsettled about their closer situation, having kicked the tires on Jonathan Papelbon. Yikes.

And finally, though we adore LaTroy Hawkins as a human being, nobody at Closer Monkey thinks he can pull off last year’s magic trick, where he saved 23 games and had a 3.31 ERA, despite the fact that he only struck out 5.3 hitters per 9 innings, and played half his games in Coors Field. Yeah. Yikes.

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2015 NL East Preview

March 9, 2015

Atlanta Braves – In 2012, Craig Kimbrel reached a milestone that no pitcher had ever reached before, striking out more than 50 percent (116 out of 231) of the batters that he faced. Kid K hasn’t managed that feat in the two years since; he’s merely settled for being arguably the best closer in baseball. Behind him, though, are a lot of question marks, as Kimbrel will be flanked by as many as three aging former stoppers — Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, and Jose Veras all joined the roster in the offseason. (Incidentally, so did Matt Capps, but he already got cut.) Grilli and Johnson seem likely to make the team — Johnson has impressed in camp — as do Michael Kohn and James Russell, younger arms who have been steady in their relatively short careers. Luis Avilan also returns, and will definitely be a factor if he’s closer to his 2013 self; less so if the 2014 version shows up.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Kimbrel | Grilli | Johnson.
Holds candidates: Grilli | Johnson.

Miami Marlins – Steve Cishek is worried that he might get fined a few times for taking too long between pitches, but he’s still a very solid option for saves, especially for those who like closers without much competition. Mike Dunn is a perfectly respectable set-up man, but the lefty doesn’t have overpowering stuff. AJ Ramos, meanwhile, still walks too many guys. We do like this bullpen overall in terms of depth — they added Aaron Crow in the offseason, and Carter Capps has electric stuff, though he hasn’t put it all together yet. So if they can score a few runs, they should be able to bridge nicely to Cishek, who could match the 39-save performance he had in 2014.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Cishek | Dunn | Ramos.
Holds candidates: Dunn, Ramos.

New York Mets – The Mets bullpen, an abject disaster for the first half of 2014 (Jose Valverde, Kyle Farnsworth, et al.), steadied itself down the stretch and could potentially be a team strength in 2015. They don’t have much in the way of lefthanded relief — Josh Edgin is the only reasonable option at the moment — but with Bobby Parnell returning to join Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, and Vic Black, the Mets have got four hard-throwing righties who will jockey to hold down the late innings. Mejia will start the year as closer, though Terry Collins turned some heads when he said that the closer job is Parnell’s to lose once he returns. This strikes us as a bit odd, since Mejia had a solid, albeit up-and-down year (56.1 IPs, 2.72 ERA, 60 Ks, 21 BBs, 4 HRs) after being moved to the bullpen in May, and amassed almost as many saves (28) as Parnell has accumulated in his entire career (36). So we figure that Mejia holds the job into May and beyond if he starts out hot; otherwise, Parnell will get it back. Jeurys Familia, meanwhile, continues to look like the closer of the future.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Mejia | Familia | Black.
Holds candidates: Familia, Edgin.

Philadelphia Phillies – Count us among the folks who can’t wait for Jonathan Papelbon to get his hostile, crotch-grabbing self traded, which would open the door for youngster Ken Giles to ascend to the role he’s destined for. Giles put up a 1.18 ERA last year along with 64 strikeouts in just 45.2 innings. If you’re in a league that drafts any middle relievers at all, he should be one of the first off the board. Jake Diekman is the other power arm in the bullpen; the lefty should gobble up any holds that don’t go Giles’s way.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Papelbon | Giles | Diekman.
Holds candidates: Giles, Diekman.

Washington Nationals – With Rafael Soriano gone and Tyler Clippard shipped off to Oakland, Drew Storen finally has the closer job all to himself. Aside from a bumpy 2013, Storen has excelled thanks in part to a unique delivery that sees him turn his back to the hitter and then throw entirely across his body. (Related: We miss you, Paul Edinger.) Casey Janssen signed a 1-year, $3.5 million contract in the offseason and will get any save chances when Storen needs a night off. We’ll give the second in line spot to Craig Stammen for now, based on experience alone, though we do like Aaron Barrett to crack the hierarchy at some point.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Storen | Janssen | Stammen.
Holds candidates: Janssen | Barrett.

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2015 NL Central preview

March 8, 2015

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs enter the season with more certainty at closer than they have had in years. Hector Rondon did not waste his opportunity last year, and enters this year with Joe Maddon already committing to him as the closer. Maddon has never been shy about using his closer in non-save spots though, so that takes a bite out of Rondon’s value and adds some to the other relief options. There are a lot of power arms available in the Cubs bullpen, so the true hierarchy will probably be in flux early on. Pedro Strop will start in the set-up role and Neil Ramirez will be in line in case they falter. Maddon also spoke highly of their major pickup Jason Motte, calling him a “force multiplier.” And with the recent addition of Phil Coke, they found the lefty specialist that they were looking for, and he should be in line for any LOOGY holds that pop up. Overall, the Cubs have a lot of solid options in the bullpen, but that hurts each player’s individual value, especially with Maddon’s tendency to use his best relievers in the highest-leverage spots, without worrying if they will pick up a hold or a save.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Rondon | Strop | Ramirez.
Holds candidates: Strop, Ramirez.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds bullpen has a fantasy monster in closer Aroldis Chapman. When healthy, he is the most dominant relief pitcher in the game, and will rack up K’s as quickly as some starting pitchers. Behind him, Cincy is a bit of a mess. Jumbo Diaz was a solid option for them last year, and will likely start with the 8th inning duties, but he doesn’t have overpowering stuff. Sam LeCure was a consistent performer last year, but despite injuries and poor performances around him, he only found himself in 2 save opportunities all season. Newly acquired Kevin Gregg has closing experience, but at 38 and coming off an injury, he will have to prove himself before he gets the call. Sean Marshall was supposed to be the primary left hander, but injuries last year and a recent setback in his recovery have slowed his return. Finally, J.J. Hoover is trying to forget his 2014 campaign, and the early returns are solid, striking out the side in his first appearance in spring training. With a multitude of options, nobody really stands out. The best bets for holds early on are Diaz and LeCure. If Marshall and Gregg can recover from their injuries, or if Hoover regains some of his form, then they could run away with the set up job, but nothing but an injury is going to unseat the Cuban Missile in the closer role.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Chapman | Diaz | LeCure
Holds candidates: Diaz, LeCure.

Milwaukee Brewers – With the re-signing of Francisco Rodriguez, and the addition of Jonathan Broxton, the top two spots in the Milwaukee pen seem to be pretty well set. That’s what we thought last year as well, before a surprise appearance of K-Rod coming on to close instead of Jim Henderson. Rodriguez never looked back, and racked up 44 saves over a very solid season. This year the job is his to lose, but he has yet to report to camp. The Brewers say they are not worried, but if his absence stretches later into March we know that Ron Roenicke isn’t afraid to defy expectations. Will Smith will be the primary lefty in the pen and should see plenty of work against right handed hitters as well. If he can Focus on avoiding a mid-season lull like last year, he is a strong candidate for holds as he led the league in appearances with 78. Jim Henderson is a sleeper candidate for saves as the former closer is trying to make a comeback from a forgettable 2014.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Rodriguez | Broxton | Smith.
Holds candidates: Broxton, Smith.

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates head into the season with no major changes to their bullpen. Mark Melancon will get the first shot at saves after taking over the closers role last year — he converted 23 of 24 save opportunities down the stretch and was instrumental in Pittsburgh’s playoff run. Behind him, the Pirates will turn to lefty Tony Watson as their primary set up man, who has value as a middle reliever, particularly in holds leagues, as a strikeout-per-inning pitcher who doesn’t walk many batters. Newly acquired Antonio Bastardo joins him as the other lefty in the pen, with Jared Hughes also in the mix for late-inning work. In holds leagues, the pride of New Zealand, John Holdzkom, is a sleeper candidate for high leverage innings. He has a power arm and performed well in his brief call up at the end of 2014, but he’s unproven in the majors and has minor league options available. The Pirates may send him down early, and lean on new acquisitions Arquimedes Caminero and former top prospect Radhames Liz to fill out the back end of their bullpen.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Melancon | Watson | Bastardo.
Holds candidates – Watson, Hughes.

St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal seems secure in his spot to start 2015, though the departure of All Star Pat Neshek has left a hole in the setup role. However, the Cardinals acquired Jordan Walden and Matt Belisle, who will likely slot into the late innings along with Kevin Siegrist. The Cardinals have made a habit of picking up relievers and making them stars, and that could happen with either of their new additions, or journeyman Carlos Villanueva. Villanueva has posted much better numbers as a reliever than as a starter, and if the Cards shift him to that role, he could be a poor man’s Pat Neshek.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Rosenthal | Walden | Belisle.
Holds candidates: Walden, Belisle.

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2015 NL West preview

March 8, 2015

Arizona Diamondbacks – It’s safe to say that the closer spot was not a pillar of strength for 64-98, last-place Arizona Diamondbacks last season. The young and talented Addison Reed got worse in his switch from the American League to the National League, netting 32 saves but finishing an up-and-down season with a 4.25 ERA, and he’s recently come down with a bout of shoulder soreness that will keep him from throwing until mid-March. At this point, he looks fine to start the season, though righties Brad Ziegler and Evan Marshall or lefty Oliver Perez could step in if necessary. Holds seekers can also keep an eye on David Hernandez, who should be ready by May 1 after missing all of last year due to Tommy John surgery.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Reed | Ziegler | Perez.
Holds candidates: Ziegler, Perez.

Colorado Rockies – Yes, the Rockies still employ a closer that began his major league career (1995!) before some of our faithful Closer Monkey readers were born! I’m looking at YOU, LaTroy Hawkins. At 42, Hawkins will be the oldest active player in the big leagues this year, which will be his 21st and final season in Major League Baseball. Don’t let his age fool you. Hawkins had a solid year in Denver last season, collecting 23 saves and a 3.31 ERA. Still, keep an eye on the other late-inning relievers, including heir apparent John Axford, and last year’s up-and-down set-up duo, Adam Ottavino and Rex Brothers.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Hawkins | Axford | Ottavino.
Holds candidates: Axford, Ottavino.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Andrew Friedman took his big-thinking mindset away from the small-market Tampa area and to sunny southern California, and when he arrived, he took a wrecking ball to a Dodgers team that won two straight division titles. Most important to the Closer Monkey is the injury to the electric Kenley Jansen, who will miss the first month of the season, with no clear replacement behind him. Brian Wilson is gone, leaving two recent acquisitions — Joel Peralta and Dustin McGowan — to duke it out with Brandon League for save chances. We think it’ll either be Peralta or League to start the season, with McGowan getting a look if they both struggle in the spring.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: | Peralta | League | McGowan.
Holds candidates: League, JP Howell.

San Diego Padres – Another NL West team in transition was the San Diego Padres, who added Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and James Shields in a busy offseason. A much stronger lineup should present the team with more hold and save opportunities — assuming they actually have more leads — so consider a mid-round investment in closer Joaquin Benoit, who was excellent last year in his first season in the National League (1.41 ERA, 11 saves). Holds-chasers should take a look at Kevin Quackenbush, who could also inherit the closer role if Benoit struggles. The Padres also added Shawn Kelley from the Yankees and Brandon Maurer, a former starter with a big arm, from the Mariners.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Benoit | Quackenbush | Vincent.
Holds candidates: Quackenbush, Vincent.

San Francisco Giants – The defending World Series champions got a scare during the early going of spring training after closer Santiago Casilla was hit in the left shin by a batted ball. Reports indicate Casilla should be OK, but he will need to shake off a bruised shin and should be good to go on Opening Day. Behind Casilla is setup man Sergio Romo, who is dealing with shoulder soreness, of course. Manager Bruce Bochy says Romo should be fine. Romo, when healthy, and Jeremy Affeldt will be the most likely bullpen arms to pick up holds.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Casilla | Romo | Affeldt.
Holds candidates: Romo, Affeldt.

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