Closer Rankings: Nos. 1-10

March 13, 2014

10. Jason Grilli, Pittsburgh Pirates — Had a great 2013, but he’s older than you might think, with lingering health concerns. Still the top option for a team good enough to win a lot, but not good enough to win by a lot.

9. David Robertson, New York Yankees — As the post-Mo era begins in the Bronx, we think Robertson will exhibit the talent to be a top-tier closer option, especially if he can improve his efficiency.

8. Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins — The team was lousy, but it wasn’t his fault. The Twins should almost certainly improve, and Perkins’s job security is excellent.

7. Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers — The 39-year-old was fantastic last year, and he’ll close for a better team in 2014.

6. Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox — Uehara has been very good ever since he entered the league in 2009, but his performance in 2013 was nothing short of shocking. He should have more save opportunities this year, and he remains an elite option, to be sure — but keep in mind that he turns 39 this April, and that he started in Japan for eight years, averaging 175 innings a year.

5. Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals — We’re high on Rosenthal based on his electric work in set-up, but we can’t help but be a little leery of Jason Motte at the same time.

4. Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals — Now we’ve reached the Big Four, the highest level of bullpen excellence. Holland has been fantastic over the past few years, and if the Royals continue their improvement, his stock could rise even further. He did get a high number of save opportunities last year.

3. Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers — For the first 4 1/2 years of his career, Jansen was a catcher who struck out in 27% of his at-bats. Over his last 4 1/2 years as a pitcher, he’s made hitters look even sillier, striking out 40% of batters faced.

2. Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds — Perhaps the best pure stuff in the game, although he walked a few more men than normal last year.

1. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves — Never a doubt; Kimbrel has been utterly unhittable since his rookie season in 2011.

Closer Rankings: Nos. 11-20

March 13, 2014

11. Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants — Romo hasn’t been throwing his slider this spring, so it’s not clear precisely what to make of his lousy spring numbers.

12. Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels — After a disturbingly high ERA last year, Mike Scioscia intends to use Frieri more sparingly this season.

13. Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals — We just don’t trust Soriano, who has been getting shelled this spring — but I guess we trust the guys below even less.

14. Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays — The irascible Australian, rejected by Baltimore, will be out to prove something to his division rivals.

15. Jim Johnson, Oakland A’s — A second straight year of 50 saves, sure, but don’t forget the nine blown saves either. Oakland will probably not present the same wealth of save opportunities as Baltimore has.

16. Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies — Decreased velocity and a plummeting strikeout rate drop the pricy Papelbon into the bottom half of our rankings.

17. Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins — Win a bet with your bullpen-ignorant friends: Cishek boasts the longest active string of successful saves, at 29.

18. Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners — Rodney’s astonishing one-off 2012 season, in which his 3.8 WAR doubled the total from his other ten years combined, makes him the “Gangnam Style” of relievers.

19. Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays — Janssen has pitched well for Toronto over the last two seasons; his reputation suffers because of his subpar team and their hitter-friendly ballpark. A shoulder injury this spring could make his position more tenuous.

20. John Axford, Cleveland Indians — The Ax Man hopes to cut down his sky-high WHIP now that he’s no longer tipping his pitches. Cody Allen is lurking.

Closer Rankings: Nos. 21-30

March 13, 2014

21. Jim Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers — Pitched very well last year and has a bobblehead giveaway to look forward to — but also has Brandon Kintzler and human bobblehead K-Rod on his heels.

22. Addison Reed, Arizona Diamondbacks — The closer who produced the widest variance in our rankings, Reed is either on the verge of a breakout year or about to lose a competition to J.J. Putz.

23. Nate Jones, Chicago White Sox — His tremendous strikeout rate and breakout potential have made him a trendy sleeper.

24. Bobby Parnell, New York Mets — Pitched well last year, but he’s coming off September neck surgery that caused him to lose 30 pounds. We’ll see how long Terry Collins’s “warm feeling” lasts.

25. Huston Street, San Diego Padres — Bad peripherals last year, a history of injuries, a tweaked groin, and Joaquin Benoit waiting behind him.

26. Tommy Hunter, Baltimore Orioles — A very good WHIP last year, but Hunter doesn’t miss enough bats and gives up too many home runs.

27. Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers — As Joakim Soria excels and Feliz struggles to return from Tommy John surgery, Ron Washington is speaking of a closer committee and longing for “a guy who can get three outs.” Ominous.

28. Jose Veras, Chicago Cubs — If last year’s improvement in walk rate wasn’t permanent, Cubs fans will swear he’s a taller Marmol.

29. LaTroy Hawkins, Colorado Rockies — How long will the Rockies be able to keep Rex Brothers — who was three years old when Hawkins was drafted — in an eighth-inning role?

30. Chad Qualls, Houston Astros — A spotty history and two legitimate competitors combine to drop the ursine righthander to the bottom of our spring rankings. To add insult to injury, Matt Dominguez trounced him in the second round of Astros March Madness.

2014 AL East bullpen preview

March 11, 2014

Baltimore Orioles – Tommy Hunter has the inside track to the closer role to begin the season after the Orioles traded away Jim Johnson during the offseason. Darren O’Day will be right on his heels however, as will former Marlin Ryan Webb. Webb didn’t wow anyone last year, but he does have a good sinker and can also baffle hitters with a slider and change-up. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer – Tommy Hunter, Set-up – Darren O’Day, 2nd in line – Ryan Webb.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
BALTommy HunterDarren O’DayRyan WebbTommy Hunter3/11/14

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Boston Red Sox – The World Series champs appeared destined for another mess in the bullpen last year until Koji Uehara came in and righted the ship en route to a spectacular season. He’ll start 2014 as the Sox closer, but time will tell if he can maintain the numbers he boasted last year. Waiting in the wings will be former Cardinals closer Edward Mujica, whom the Sox signed in December. He’ll likely begin the year as the primary eighth-inning guy, with reliable lefty Craig Breslow and Junichi Tazawa as seventh-inning options. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer – Koji Uehara, Set-up – Edward Mujica, 2nd in line – Craig Breslow.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
BOSKoji UeharaEdward MujicaCraig BreslowKoji Uehara3/11/14

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New York Yankees – The ninth inning for the Yankees will look decidedly different in 2014 with the retirement of the legendary Mariano Rivera, and David Robertson will have some giant shoes to fill as the team’s new closer. The rest of the bullpen is full of question marks, with Shawn Kelley seemingly favored by manager Joe Girardi as the eight-inning option. Matt Thornton will be the team’s lefty specialist and will see time in the seventh. Dellin Betances has impressed this spring and Preston Claiborne will also be someone to watch. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer – David Robertson, Set-up – Shawn Kelley, 2nd in line – Matt Thornton.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
NYYDavid RobertsonShawn KelleyMatt ThorntonDavid Robertson3/11/14

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Tampa Bay Rays –Almost an Oriole, Grant Balfour returns to the Rays this season as the team’s closer. He was 38-of-41 in save opportunities last season in Oakland and will replace Fernando Rodney, who departed for Seattle. The Rays feel they have the best bullpen in baseball, and they have plenty of options behind Balfour. Juan Carlos Oviedo, Heath Bell, Joel Peralta and Jake McGee all figure to factor in Joe Maddon’s late-inning plans. Bell struggled last season, but if Peralta struggles Bell may see his more high-leverage time. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer – Grant Balfour, Set-up – Joel Peralta, 2nd in line – Heath Bell.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
TBGrant BalfourJoel PeraltaHeath BellGrant Balfour3/11/14

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Toronto Blue Jays – Casey Janssen finds himself entrenched as the Blue Jays’ closer, and he’ll have a familiar cast of characters behind him. Sergio Santos will begin the season in the set-up role, while righty Steve Delabar should be called upon again in the seventh. Expect the Jays to use Brett Cecil again as a left-handed option out of the pen along with Delabar. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer – Casey Janssen, Set-up – Sergio Santos, 2nd in line – Casey Janssen.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
TORCasey JanssenSergio SantosSteve DelabarCasey Janssen3/11/14

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2014 NL East bullpen preview

March 11, 2014

Atlanta Braves – Craig Kimbrel has been a dominant force for the Braves over the last three years, and Atlanta still has plenty of quality arms surrounding him. Jordan Walden, a competent closer in his own right for the Angels in 2011, should be Kimbrel’s right-hand man, with David Carpenter and lefty Luis Avilan providing valuable late-inning help. Jonny Venters isn’t expected to return from his Tommy John rehab until May or June. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer — Craig Kimbrel; Set-up — Jordan Walden; 2nd in line — David Carpenter.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
ATLCraig KimbrelJordan WaldenDavid CarpenterCraig Kimbrel3/11/14

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Miami Marlins – Steve Cishek pitched admirably down the stretch for a lousy team, and he’ll open 2014 in the closer role. A.J. Ramos and Mike Dunn are the only other sure things in the Fish pen — unless you count the incorrigible Carlos Marmol. We don’t. Mike Redmond isn’t yet sold on Carter Capps, but the ex-Mariner could work his way into a high-leverage role on the other side of the waves. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer — Steve Cishek; Set-up — A.J. Ramos; 2nd in line — Mike Dunn.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
MIASteve CishekA.J. RamosMike DunnSteve Cishek3/11/14

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New York Mets – Pencil a healthy Bobby Parnell into the closer’s role, but after that, things get messy in Flushing. Young Vic Black received a vote of confidence at the end of 2013, but in the offseason, the team signed two aging ex-closers: Jose Valverde and Kyle Farnsworth. Neither veteran is a lock to make the roster out of spring training, but with Terry Collins’s affinity for experience in the late innings, we see Valverde and Francisco with an (undeserved) edge over Black and Gonzalez Germen. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer — Bobby Parnell; Set-up — Kyle Farnsworth; 2nd in line — Jose Valverde.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
NYMBobby ParnellKyle FarnsworthJose ValverdeBobby Parnell3/11/14

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Philadelphia Phillies – This pen will go from bottom-five to top-five if Jonathan Papelbon is to be believed. On Thursday, Mike Adams will face hitters for the first time since his shoulder surgery, and Antonio Bastardo is coming off a 50-game PED suspension, so if the Phils are to see drastic improvement, it will have to start with the likes of B.J. Rosenberg, Justin De Fratus, and Jake Diekman. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer — Jonathan Papelbon; Set-up — B.J. Rosenberg (Mike Adams injured); 2nd in line — Justin De Fratus.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
PHIJonathan PapelbonB.J. RosenbergJustin De FratusJonathan Papelbon3/11/14
Mike Adams (DL)

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Washington Nationals – The Nats enjoy the rare luxury of bringing back every member of an unchanged hierarchy. Starting 2014 hierarchy: Closer — Rafael Soriano; Set-up — Tyler Clippard; 2nd in line — Drew Storen.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
WASRafael SorianoTyler ClippardDrew StorenRafael Soriano3/11/14

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