July 17, 2013
SPECIAL UPDATE: TRADE DEADLINE BUY/SELL REPORT (PART ONE OF TWO)
Glossary
BUY+: This player has a large chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
TL;DR Version
BUY+: Jose Cisnero
BUY: Matt Lindstrom; Glen Perkins; Jared Burton; Ryan Cook; Yoervis Medina
SELL: Koji Uehara; Addison Reed; Grant Balfour
SELL+: Joaquin Benoit; Jose Veras; Oliver Perez
Baltimore Orioles — In the thick of an extremely competitive AL East race, the O’s are likely to stay with their current approach in the bullpen: Darren O’Day and Tommy Hunter pitching effectively in front of an inconsistent Jim Johnson. BUY/SELL: None.
Boston Red Sox — Boston might not be satisfied with adding Matt Thornton; there’s still a chance that they acquire Bobby Parnell, Jonathan Papelbon, Addison Reed, or Francisco Rodriguez, any of whom would significantly erode Koji Uehara’s fantasy value. SELL: Koji Uehara.
New York Yankees — With all the injuries stalking the Bronx this season (including a 97 MPH All-Star Game fastball to Robinson Cano’s quadriceps), the late innings are the least of Joe Girardi’s concerns. Although New York could always add a setup arm, there’s not a pitcher in the world who could derail Mariano Rivera’s farewell tour. BUY/SELL: None.
Tampa Bay Rays — Fernando Rodney isn’t the most reliable closer in the league, but the Rays are still likely to stand pat at this year’s trade deadline. BUY/SELL: None.
Toronto Blue Jays — The Jays’ bullpen has been the team’s biggest strength this disappointing season, and although they might move a pitcher if they get the right offer, any trade is unlikely to affect the save picture. BUY/SELL: None.
Chicago White Sox — With the White Sox languishing in the AL Central basement, Addison Reed could be traded if another team makes a great offer. If Reed does move, he’ll either take on a setup role (drastically decreasing his value) or close for a better team (mildly increasing it). On balance, we think the rest of this season will see a slight regression in Reed’s worth to you. Meanwhile, if Reed is traded, Matt Lindstrom will probably be the White Sox pitcher who benefits most. Jesse Crain could be in the mix also, once he returns from his injury, but (as noted in the link above) he’s even more likely to be flipped this month. BUY: Matt Lindstrom. SELL: Addison Reed.
Cleveland Indians — The Indians need to add a lefty arm and perhaps replace Vinnie Pestano, but Chris Perez and Cody Allen are pretty secure. BUY/SELL: None.
Detroit Tigers — Detroit is likely to trade for one or two relief pitchers; although it’s not yet clear whether they will replace Joaquin Benoit with a “proven closer” or simply reload with middle relief reinforcements, we think Benoit’s days as the closer in Comerica are numbered. SELL+: Joaquin Benoit.
Kansas City Royals — Although there’s a strong case that Kansas City should flip Greg Holland now, at the height of his value, the three years of team control remaining suggest that he’ll remain a Royal for a while. BUY/SELL: None.
Minnesota Twins — Glen Perkins is too good a closer to stay on this bad Minnesota team; if he’s traded, he’ll almost certainly be closing for a contender, while Ron Gardenhire goes to Jared (Burton) and dreams of someday getting a ring. BUY: Glen Perkins, Jared Burton.
Houston Astros — With Houston as bad as expected, Jose Veras is extremely likely to be traded this July — but he’ll probably move into a setup role wherever he ends up. Jose Cisnero is expected to succeed Veras, if necessary. BUY+: Jose Cisnero. SELL+: Jose Veras.
Los Angeles Angels — It’s been a disappointing year for the Angels and it’s unlikely that any exciting bullpen trade news will spark a second-half renaissance. BUY/SELL: None.
Oakland A’s — Oakland might add another arm in middle relief; they were chasing Matt Thornton before the Red Sox sealed that deal. With Grant Balfour facing free agency, though, don’t put it past Billy Beane to deal his All-Star closer, even with the A’s atop their division. BUY: Ryan Cook. SELL: Grant Balfour.
Seattle Mariners — Oliver Perez and Charlie Furbush are both attractive trade bait; Perez’s save chances are likely to drop off dramatically if (and when) he’s moved. Yoervis Medina could benefit as a result. BUY: Yoervis Medina. SELL+: Oliver Perez.
Texas Rangers — The Rangers are very happy with their deep bullpen; any trade they make will focus on their offense or starting rotation. BUY/SELL: None.
