2016 AL East preview

February 29, 2016

Baltimore Orioles — Zach Britton and Darren O’Day will be back in the roles they’ve dominated since Tommy Hunter’s demotion last May. The seventh inning should be left in the capable hands of Mychal Givens and Brad Brach.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Britton | O’Day | Givens.
Holds candidates: O’Day, Givens, Brach.

Boston Red Sox — What a difference this offseason made for the dog’s breakfast of a Fenway bullpen. A November trade installed Craig Kimbrel in the closer role; although he led the league in saves each year between 2011 and 2014, he’s still only 27. Setting up Kimbrel will be the ageless Koji Uehara, back from his broken wrist and giving Sox opponents two very different looks in the late innings. The seventh inning should belong to Carson Smith and his crazy release point, with Junichi Tazawa and Robbie Ross, Jr. providing further depth. And don’t look now, but Carlos Marmol got a minor league deal from Boston, and there’s already talk that he might be back to his effective self again.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Kimbrel | Uehara | Smith.
Holds candidates: Uehara, Smith, Tazawa.

New York Yankees — You may have heard a little about these guys — the only three relievers to strike out over 100 batters in 2015, combining to compensate for a Yankee offense so old it got invited to a Democratic debate. The major complicating factor is a possible domestic violence suspension for Aroldis Chapman, which could sideline him as many as 45 days. In that event, New York would turn to last year’s dynamic duo of Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Chapman | Miller | Betances.
Holds candidates: Miller, Betances, Chasen Shreve.

Tampa Bay Rays — Brad Boxberger will hold onto the closer role he inherited last season, but with Jake McGee out of the picture, it’s the newly acquired Danny Farquhar who will be his chief assistant. Behind them are familiar names like Xavier Cedeno, Alex Colome, and Steve Geltz, although Enny Romero is a longshot worth watching.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Boxberger | Farquhar | Cedeno.
Holds candidates: Farquhar, Cedeno, Geltz.

Toronto Blue Jays — It’ll be a spring training battle for the closer role between incumbent Roberto Osuna and newcomer Drew Storen. Storen, who was displaced from the ninth a few times in Washington, is expressing a team-first attitude about his role, and we think he has the edge over Osuna, whose usage will be somewhat limited. Brett Cecil should be in line for the seventh, but if you want a deep sleeper with Storen-edging experience, Rafael Soriano just joined the team as well.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Storen | Osuna | Cecil.
Holds candidates: Osuna, Cecil, Aaron Sanchez.

Edward Mujica to close in Oakland; new committee in Toronto

July 29, 2015

Oakland A’s – While still unconfirmed that he subscribes to Closer Monkey, A’s manager Bob Melvin made sure Edward Mujica will remain at the top of our hierarchy, saying before the game that Mujica will close following the Tyler Clippard trade. Mujica’s experience was the main factor in Melvin’s decision. Drew Pomeranz will remain in a set-up role, but Melvin also mentioned he can be used in multiple situations out of the bullpen.

Updated hierarchy: Mujica | Pomeranz | O’Flaherty.

Toronto Blue Jays – Prior to Tuesday’s tilt, manager John Gibbons stated that Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez will share the 8th and 9th innings, while newcomer LaTroy Hawkins and Bo Schultz will split the 6th and 7th innings. Hawkins made his Toronto debut on Tuesday with the Jays trailing, and since Toronto lost, it remains a mystery as to who will get the first crack at a save between Osuna and Sanchez.

Updated hierarchy: *Osuna | Sanchez | Hawkins.

* = closer-by-committee

Philadelphia Phillies — The Phillies finally dealt away Jonathan Papelbon yesterday, clearing the 9th inning for longtime heir apparent Kenneth Giles, who earned his first save of the season last night. Giles first turned heads at the major league level in 2014, when he posted what was one of the best seasons for a reliever in the game (1.18 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 64 Ks in 45.2 innings). He hasn’t been quite as dominant this year, but early-season nagging injuries may have played a role. We’re guessing he’s already owned if your league is even remotely deep, but if not, he’s a must add. We expect he’ll be the closer in Philadelphia for a good while. Luis Garcia got the 8th on Tuesday, and he’ll join Jeanmar Gomez and occasionally Jake Diekman as the bridge to Giles.

Updated hierarchy: Giles | Gomez | Garcia.

Washington Nationals — Jonathan Papelbon was officially traded to the Washington Nationals on Tuesday. This is bad news for Drew Storen owners, as Papelbon said he would only waive his no-trade clause if he was going to continue to close games on the other side. Papelbon, for all his general repulsiveness, is still a very good closer. With a strong Washington team behind him, he’s among the favorites to lead the league in saves the rest of the way. Storen, meanwhile, becomes one of the best middle relievers in baseball.

Updated hierarchy: Papelbon | Storen | Janssen.

Chicago Cubs – Jason Motte had a much better appearance yesterday than he did on Monday, but his clean inning of work was in a 7-2 loss. After the game, Joe Maddon was asked about Hector Rondon, and Maddon indicated that not only could Rondon win the job back, but that he anticipates Rondon will do just that. Maddon then praised Pedro Strop while acknowledging that Rafael Soriano “is still not on the top of his game.” What does this mean for Motte? We’ll keep him at the top of the heap for now, but Rondon is closing in fast.

Updated hierarchy: Motte | Rondon | Strop.

New York Mets – Tyler Clippard made his Mets debut on Tuesday and recorded the final three outs of a 4-0 win. His addition came at the perfect time for the Mets, as Jenrry Mejia was suspended for 162 games due to PED use. This means that Bobby Parnell will get the majority of the seventh-inning holds going forward.

Updated hierarchy: Familia | Clippard | Parnell. 

Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman pitched the 9th in a non-save situation after the Reds took a 4-0 lead in the top half of the frame. That’s normally not newsworthy, but Chapman may not be pitching for the Reds much longer. Both the Diamondbacks and the Giants are reportedly interested in Chapman, with Arizona’s GM confirming that the D-Backs are “going down that path.” If Chapman does move, J.J. Hoover is our most likely candidate to take over the closer’s role.

Hierarchy remains: Chapman | Hoover | Badenhop.

New York Yankees — Adam Warren picked up a three-inning save as the Yankees crushed the Rangers, 21-5. He does not factor into the Yankees’ late-inning plans.

Hierarchy remains: Miller | Betances | Wilson.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs – Jason Motte has pitched in back-to-back games, and as mentioned above, Rondon may win the job soon enough.
2. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays – Sanchez and Roberto Osuna will be sharing the 8th and 9th innings.

Mujica, Pomeranz could close in Oakland; Hawkins traded to Toronto

July 28, 2015

Toronto Blue Jays – The Rockies completed a mega-trade in the wee hours this morning that sent All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and veteran set-up man LaTroy Hawkins to the Toronto Blue Jays for shortstop Jose Reyes, reliever Miguel Castro, minor leaguers, and cash. While the shortstops will get the headlines this morning, we know you care only about how this trade affects the bullpens! LaTroy Hawkins will provide the Jays with a much needed arm in one of the league’s sketchiest pens. It is unclear right now exactly how John Gibbons plans to use him, but our best guess is that he’ll be a 7th inning guy who picks up a few holds now and again.

Updated hierarchy: Osuna | Sanchez | Hawkins.

Colorado Rockies – The Rockies picked up Miguel Castro in the Troy Tulowitzki deal, and given the state of their bullpen, he might get summoned to the big leagues soon. For now, though, we suspect that LaTroy Hawkins’s absence means more holds for Rafael Betancourt and Tommy Kahnle. Keep an eye on Betancourt in particular, who has come around as of late, having allowed only one run in his last nine innings pitched; he’s becoming an appealing alternative to closer John Axford, who destroyed his trade value by allowing 12 ERs in his last 11 innings. Axford blew the save last night after the Rockies staged a big rally to take the lead in the top of the 9th.

Updated hierarchy: Axford | Betancourt | Kahnle.

Chicago Cubs – Beginning on May 16, Jason Motte had a terrific run that saw him give up just 1 run in 21 appearances, pushing him to the front of the closer-by-committee in Chicago. But after winning the full time job, he’s been more hittable, and has now allowed 13 hits in his last 6.1 innings. Last night, he was yanked before recording an out after giving up a home run, single, and double. (After Motte was pulled, Rafael Soriano didn’t fare much better, allowing a home run to Carlos Gonzalez.) There’s been no indication that Joe Maddon will revert to a closer-by-committee, but he’s more the type to just do it, and tell the media of his plans later. Either way, we recommend a long look at Hector Rondon, if he’s available in your leagues; he’s allowed only 1 earned run in his last 25 innings.

Hierarchy remains: Motte | Rondon | Soriano.

Seattle Mariners – After taking the loss last night, Carson Smith has now had two outings and two losses since we removed his asterisk. As mentioned yesterday, the guy who he might have competition from now, though, is Mark Lowe. Lloyd McClendon favorite Fernando Rodney still lurks, as well.

Hierarchy remains: Smith | Lowe | Rodney.

San Francisco Giants – As predicted in the Vulture Save Watch, Santiago Casilla got a night off after pitching back to back games, allowing Sergio Romo to pick up the save.

Hierarchy remains: Casilla | Romo | Strickland.

Arizona Diamondbacks – As predicted in the Vulture Save Watch, Brad Ziegler got the night off after pitching three in a row, meaning Daniel Hudson got the keys to the 9th inning. As NOT predicted in the Vulture Save Watch, Hudson blew the save, and Andrew Chafin ended up nabbing a 1-out save in the 10th. So close yet so far.

Hierarchy remains: Ziegler | Hudson | Hernandez.

Kansas City Royals – Quick, who has more saves since July 19 — Joe Blanton or Aroldis Chapman? If you guessed Chapman, you’re wrong! If you guessed Blanton, well, you’re also wrong. They’re tied. They both have two. I guess this exercise was stupid.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Oakland A’s – Tyler Clippard has been traded to the Mets. As mentioned earlier, we believe Edward Mujica is probably the best bet for saves in Oakland at the moment. Drew Pomeranz could also factor if the A’s continue to reconsider shifting him to the rotation, and one A’s beat writer believes Eric O’Flaherty is a possibility. We will follow this situation closely to see if the A’s anoint someone specific.

Updated hierarchy: *Mujica | Pomeranz | O’Flaherty.
* = closer-by-committee

New York Mets – The Mets’ acquisition of Tyler Clippard won’t displace Jeurys Familia, who has been one of the best closers in the game this year. It will, however, cut into hold opportunities for Jenrry Mejia and Bobby Parnell, as Clippard figures to be the 8th inning guy going forward. On the off chance that the playoffs matter in your fantasy league, know that the Mets likely made this move because they know they won’t have Mejia should they make it to October — he’s barred from postseason play this year as part of his earlier PED suspension.

Updated hierarchy: Familia | Clippard | Mejia. 

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Mark Lowe, Seattle Mariners – Carson Smith has taken losses in back to back appearances and has pitched in four of the last five games.
2. Jake Petricka, Chicago White Sox – David Robertson threw 33 pitches last night (46 in the last two days) and Zach Duke has gone three straight.

Jake McGee could be closing soon; Jonathan Papelbon to Washington?

July 25, 2015

Seattle Mariners — Over the last two months, Carson Smith has nine saves and Fernando Rodney has two (and two blown saves). After Smith shut down Toronto in the ninth on Friday night, we think it’s time for him to shed his asterisk and be considered the Seattle closer, full stop. Just promise us you won’t tell Lloyd McClendon.

Hierarchy remains: Smith | Rodney | Lowe.

Tampa Bay Rays — Jake McGee earned his fifth save on Friday, in a game where Brad Boxberger did not appear. A McGee save by itself isn’t that unusual, but given the rumors swirling around all three members of the Tampa hierarchy, Friday could have been either an attempt to showcase the lefthander, who boasts 21 straight scoreless appearances, or an early look at life after a Boxberger trade.

Hierarchy remains: Boxberger | McGee | Jepsen.

Philadelphia Phillies — 17 saves in 17 appearances isn’t the only streak Jonathan Papelbon is working on this season; he’s also managed to whine about wanting a trade every single time he has seen a reporter. The latest rumor has him headed inside the division, to Washington.

Hierarchy remains: Papelbon | Giles | Gomez.

St. Louis Cardinals — Yet another save delivered to those who heed the Vulture Save Watch, courtesy of Kevin Siegrist. In other news, the Cardinals acquired Steve Cishek from the Marlins. Although Cishek has improved since his return to the majors in June (0.71 ERA, 11 K in 13 appearances), we think his ceiling is the Seth Maness level, solidly behind Trevor Rosenthal, Siegrist, and Jordan Walden, once the latter returns (as early as next week) from his biceps injury.

Hierarchy remains: Rosenthal | Siegrist | Maness.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Rafael Soriano/Pedro Strop, Chicago Cubs — Jason Motte’s blown save on Friday came on his third day of work in four (and fifth out of seven). Hector Rondon has seen an even heavier recent workload.
2. Pat Neshek, Houston Astros — Luke Gregerson hasn’t thrown many pitches (24), but they have come in three straight games.
3. Alexi Ogando/Tommy Layne, Boston Red Sox — If you believe Boston can win two straight games, it’s worth noting that Koji Uehara threw 29 pitches on Friday, and Junichi Tazawa has thrown 36 over the last two days. Ogando is next in line, while Layne is the only non-Uehara pitcher with a save for Boston this year.
4. Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners — Smith is Seattle’s closer, but he’s pitched on three of four days, and Rodney had Friday off.

Jonathan Papelbon may remain in Philly after all

July 23, 2015

Philadelphia Phillies – ESPN’s Jayson Stark is reporting that trade talks about closer Jonathan Papelbon have stalled with the three most likely landing spots (Cubs, Dodgers, Blue Jays). This is bad news for anyone that was speculating on this trade. Ken Giles won’t get a shot while Papelbon is still around, and Papelbon would see more save opportunities with a contender. Philadelphia will still be shopping Papelbon around, and Papelbon himself is still clamoring to get out, but if these reports are true he may be stuck with the Phillies for the rest of the year. At least he got the win yesterday.

Hierarchy remains: Papelbon | Giles | Gomez.

Texas Rangers – Tanner Scheppers really worked for the win yesterday, giving up four runs in the 8th and ballooning his ERA to 5.63. He was bailed out when John Axford gave up a pair of runs to take the loss, but Scheppers has had a miserable run lately. Manager Jeff Banister gave him a vote of confidence, saying he has electric stuff and that he will still get the 8th, and sometimes the 7th, inning. Meanwhile, Keone Kela has gone three straight appearances without giving up a hit, and has only given up a single run in his last 10 outings. If Scheppers’ bad run continues, look for Spencer Patton to find his way into the late-inning mix as well.

Updated hierarchy: Tolleson | Kela | Scheppers.

Chicago Cubs – Jason Motte got the call in the second game of a doubleheader and locked down his sixth save of the year. He’s been outstanding since taking the lead of the committee, so much so that it’s time to kick the asterisk and call him the outright closer in Chicago (at least the North Side). Rafael Soriano is still lurking as a potential challenger, but it appears that the job is Motte’s to lose at this point.

Hierarchy remains: Motte | Rondon | Soriano.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Bruce Rondon, Detroit Tigers – Joakim Soria needed 30 pitches to pick up the save yesterday and may need the afternoon off.
2. Steve Delabar/Bo Schultz, Toronto Blue Jays – Roberto Osuna threw 32 pitches and took the loss in extra innings on Wednesday.
3. Edward Mujica, Oakland Athletics – Tyler Clippard hurled 40 pitches and blew the save yesterday.
4. Kevin Siegrist, St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal has required 28 pitches in back-to-back appearances and may get a rest.
5. Carter Capps, Miami Marlins – AJ Ramos has thrown 37 pitches over the past two days.