Shawn Kelley finally gets the Nationals’ closer role all to himself

April 27, 2017

Washington Nationals — Shawn Kelley will have the chance to run with the Nationals’ closer job now that Koda Glover is headed to the DL with pain in his left hip, the same one that troubled him at the end of last season. Matt Albers and Joe Blanton will rise in Glover’s absence, and Blanton’s early struggles (10.13 ERA) give Albers the edge.

Updated hierarchy: Kelley | Treinen | Albers.

Arizona Diamondbacks — One bright spot for Arizona is that only a record-low 12,215 fans saw Fernando Rodney blow Wednesday’s night save (5 runs, 6 hits). Another has been the work of young Archie Bradley, whose three-inning, five-strikeout outing appeared to be an effort to stretch him out for the rotation with Shelby Miller hurt. If Bradley does stay in the bullpen, he could be ideal in the Andrew Miller stopper role.

Hierarchy remains: Rodney | de la Rosa | Hoover.

Colorado Rockies — Back spasms sent Mike Dunn to the 10-day DL, backdated to Sunday. Chad Qualls was activated to replace him, but it looks like Jake McGee will slide into his role, with Qualls and Carlos Estevez also late-inning hold options.

Updated hierarchy: Holland | Ottavino | McGee.

Texas Rangers — When Sam Dyson returns from the disabled list (as early as Friday), he won’t be anywhere near the ninth inning. It’s Matt Bush’s job now.

Hierarchy remains: Bush | Jeffress | LeClerc.

Boston Red Sox — Matt Barnes will be out of vulture save contention through Saturday; he dropped his appeal of a four-game suspension for throwing a 90 MPH fastball behind Manny Machado’s head.

Hierarchy remains: Kimbrel | Barnes | Hembree.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Dellin Betances — Aroldis Chapman struggled through a 33-pitch save on Wednesday and could get Thursday off.
2. Jorge de la Rosa — Rodney’s rough Wednesday could earn him a day off.

Friday:
1. Dellin Betances/Tyler Clippard — If Chapman does go Thursday, he’ll be off Friday. If Betances pitches Thursday, the Friday save should go to Clippard.
2. Danny Farquhar — Although the Rays have Thursday off, Alex Colome still will have pitched on two of the last three days, and four of the last six (87 pitches).
3. Blake Parker — Bud Norris is close to losing the committee asterisk, but if he pitches again on Thursday, he’ll probably get Friday off.
4. Hunter Strickland/Derek Law — Another outing for Mark Melancon would be his third in four days. Both Strickland and Law have been busy too, so this is contingent on a day off for them.

2017 NL West Preview

March 1, 2017

Arizona Diamondbacks — With swole shoulders and an ever-crooked hat, the Fernando Rodney Experience moves on to its fifth team since 2015. The 40-year-old Rodney was signed to a one-year deal, suggesting that the Diamondbacks hope to deal Rodney like the Padres did last June, turning the closer’s uber-fluky .210 BABIP and 1306(!!!) ERA+ into a pitching prospect. But if Arizona gets the version of Rodney that stunk up Miami with a 1.80 WHIP last summer, they’ll turn to Randall Delgado, Enrique Burgos, or Jake Barrett. Barrett’s recent shoulder stiffness puts him at the back of the pack now, but we think he actually has the best stuff of the three.

Updated hierarchy: Rodney | Delgado | Burgos.
Holds candidates: Delgado, Burgos, Barrett.

Colorado Rockies — None of this newfangled bullpen fluidity for Bud Black: the Colorado manager is a traditionalist who likes his beer cold, his TV loud, and his closers strictly identified, “dog.” Although that article suggests that Black wants Greg Holland to return to his past ninth-inning greatness, the former Royal has yet to appear in a spring training game, continuing rehab from his 2015 Tommy John surgery. Based on that uncertainty, we’ll give the tentative edge to Adam Ottavino, whose new two-seam fastball looked good in a small sample size last season. Jake McGee and Mike Dunn are likely to fill late-inning roles, with old friends Jason Motte, Chad Qualls, and Carlos Estevez also hanging around (at least for now).

Starting 2017 hierarchy: Ottavino | Holland | McGee.
Holds candidates: Holland, McGee, Mike Dunn.

Los Angeles Dodgers — Kenley Jansen turned down a massive offer from the Washington Nationals to re-sign with the Dodgers this offseason. LA also picked up longtime Giant (but longer-time Dodger fan) Sergio Romo to handle the eighth inning. The seventh inning is up in the air: Pedro Baez has a bone bruise on his pitching hand, leaving a battle among lefties Adam Liberatore, Grant Dayton, and Luis Avilan. Chris Hatcher and Josh Fields are the best remaining righties.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: Jansen | Romo | Liberatore.
Holds candidates: Romo, Liberatore, Dayton, Avilan.

San Diego Padres — This is Brandon Maurer’s job to lose, but if Carter Capps is healthy, lose it he should. Capps has a new (probably still illegal) two-hop delivery following Tommy John surgery, and his upside is far higher than the rather pedestrian Maurer. Ryan Buchter and Brad Hand were extremely solid lefties last year and may be called on in the eighth if Capps isn’t quite ready by Opening Day.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: Maurer | Capps | Buchter.
Holds candidates: Buchter, Hand, Kevin Quackenbush.

San Francisco Giants — Mark Melancon’s enormous offseason deal might pay dividends this season, but is likely to wind up as an expensive albatross as he ages. Hunter Strickland will back him up, with Derek Law and Will Smith (currently suffering from elbow inflammation) also late-inning options.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: Melancon | Strickland | Law.
Holds candidates: Strickland, Law, Smith, Josh Osich, Cory Gearrin.

Shawn Tolleson on thin ice in Texas

May 18, 2016

Texas Rangers — Shawn Tolleson blew his fourth save of the season on Tuesday, but despite a 9.20 ERA, Jeff Bannister did not want to make a reactionary decision. Tolleson is clearly on the thinnest of ice, however, and Sam Dyson is even closer to taking over the 9th inning for the Rangers.

Hierarchy remains: Tolleson | Dyson | Diekman.

Colorado Rockies — Carlos Estevez converted his fifth straight hold on Tuesday while Chad Qualls has not pitched since a blown save on May 11. Estevez, who has closing experience from over two decades ago, has allowed just two hits and one earned run in his last six appearances.

Updated hierarchy: McGee | Logan | Estevez.

Seattle Mariners — Joaquin Benoit has been activated from the disabled list and rejoined the Mariners in Baltimore on Tuesday night.

Updated hierarchy: Cishek | Benoit | Peralta.

Houston Astros — Tony Sipp stumbled his way into an extra-inning save after Luke Gregerson’s third blown save of the season. Sipp is not a prominent factor in the Astros’ late-inning plans. Meanwhile, Ken Giles looked strong with a pair of strikeouts in the seventh inning to preserve a tie game.

Hierarchy remains: Gregerson | Harris | Giles.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Sam Dyson, Texas Rangers – Shawn Tolleson may get the night, or the next few weeks, off.
2. John Axford, Oakland Athletics – Ryan Madson blew his first save of the season on Tuesday and has pitched in three straight games while Axford had last night off after two straight outings.
3. Nate Jones, Chicago White Sox – David Robertson only threw 21 pitches on Tuesday and has seen little work of late, but last night’s performance was two innings.
4. Ross Ohlendorf, Cincinnati Reds  – Tony Cingrani needed 33 pitches yesterday in a blowout loss, though he managed to strike out two and walk only one without giving up a run.
5. Tony Watson, Pittsburgh Pirates – Mark Melancon has pitched each of the last three days.

Ross Ohlendorf might be Cincinnati’s best option

May 2, 2016

Kansas City Royals – For the sixth consecutive appearance, Kelvin Herrera finished off the 8th inning for the Royals. And while we’re counting, that’s now 13 straight scoreless outings to start the year for hard-throwing righty (17 Ks in 12.1 IPs). Joakim Soria has the experience, but is off to a rocky start so far, and we now think Herrera will get the first nod should anything happen to superstar closer Wade Davis.

Updated hierarchy: Davis | Herrera | Soria.

Philadelphia Phillies – Jeanmar Gomez had pitched in four of the five previous games, so he got the day off on Sunday and Hector Neris picked up his first career save for the surprisingly decent Phillies. Neris remains a good candidate for holds going forward.

Hierarchy remains: Gomez | Neris | Hernandez.

Atlanta Braves – Arodys Vizcaino was forced into action in the 8th inning, and couldn’t hold the lead through the 9th, as the game went to extras. Jason Grilli ended up picking up his second save of the year — Jim Johnson had already pitched early in the game.

Hierarchy remains: Vizcaino | Johnson | Grilli.

Cincinnati Reds – It continues to be tough to read into a bullpen as messy as this one, but it appeared that the Reds were attempting to bridge the gap to Ross Ohlendorf on Sunday, using Tony Cingrani to start the 7th inning, with Caleb Cotham coming in behind him. Of course, Cingrani and Cotham failed to protect the lead and Ohlendorf had to come in early, with just one out in the 8th, and then when the Reds retook the lead, Ohlendorf gave it right back in the 9th. But still, this might be an indication of the way they want to play it in the future. Speculators should continue to keep an eye out for Blake Wood, who earned the win after posting scoreless 10th and 11th innings.

Updated hierarchy: *Ohlendorf | Cotham | Cingrani.
* = closer-by-committee

Baltimore Orioles – We won’t be convinced of this until it actually happens, but a Baltimore Sun beat writer is speculating that Darren O’Day might not be the man who gets saves in Zach Britton’s absence. Though the article doesn’t quote Buck Showalter, it references 2014, when O’Day was bypassed in favor of Britton after Tommy Hunter was removed from the role — this year, Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, and Dylan Bundy are listed as potential alternatives. Britton is still hoping to avoid the DL, of course, so this may not influence more than a small handful of save opportunities, but if you’ve got roster space, you might consider a flyer on one of these guys.

Hierarchy remains: Britton | O’Day | Brach.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Darren O’Day, Baltimore Orioles – Zach Britton will be out for a little while with an injury.
2. Chad Qualls, Colorado Rockies – Jake McGee has pitched in back to back games, allowing two baserunners each time which has forced him to throw 39 total pitches. Qualls has appeared in both of those games as well, but hasn’t faced the same adversity.