Jason Grilli makes his Toronto debut

June 2, 2016

Toronto Blue Jays — Jason Grilli made his Toronto debut on Wednesday and it was in the highest-leverage situation of the game. With two outs and two runners on in the seventh and the Blue Jays ahead, 2-0, Grilli overcame a poor pick-off attempt to retire Carlos Beltran. That usage moves him into the hierarchy behind Gavin Floyd, who was warming for the eighth before Toronto scored five in the home half of the seventh.

Updated hierarchy: Osuna | Floyd | Grilli.

Milwaukee Brewers – Will Smith was activated from the DL ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s game, a day earlier than expected. Manager Craig Counsell will let Smith settle in before placing him in high-leverage spots, but once Smith gets innings under his belt, expect to see the pre-injury plan of using both Smith and Jeremy Jeffress to close games.

Updated hierarchy: Jeffress | Smith | Thornburg.

Tampa Bay Rays — Brad Boxberger officially landed on the 15-day DL Wednesday with a left oblique injury, though he is slated to miss 4-8 weeks. When discussing Boxberger’s injury, manager Kevin Cash mentioned two names — Tyler Sturdevant and Ryan Garton — saying that they have pitched well and that it will warrant them more opportunities going forward.

Hierarchy remains: Colome | Cedeno | Ramirez.

Houston Astros — Luke Gregerson blew a save on Wednesday, and after the game manager AJ Hinch took the blame, saying that he had “fatigued” Gregerson. The Houston closer had indeed thrown over 50 pitches in three appearances over the last four days entering Wednesday, and some rest may do the trick. One bright spot for Houston was Michael Feliz, who has now thrown 10 straight scoreless innings, recording 17 strikeouts in that span.

Hierarchy remains: Gregerson | Giles | Harris.

Detroit Tigers – Bobby Parnell, who had been closing for Triple-A Toledo, was called up to Detroit on Wednesday. We’ll monitor Parnell’s usage, as we’re sure Mark Lowe (7.79 ERA) will as well.

Hierarchy remains: Rodriguez | J.Wilson | Lowe.

Miami Marlins – Mike Dunn faced one batter in his first appearance of the season on Wednesday and was tagged with a blown save after allowing a pair of inherited runners to score, tying the game. Dunn’s return from the DL finally gives the Marlins a left-handed choice in the late innings and he will be another option for holds in Miami.

Hierarchy remains: Ramos | Phelps | Barraclough.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Ken Giles/Will Harris, Houston Astros — As mentioned above, Luke Gregerson desperately needs a day off. We think Giles is the first option for saves, but Will Harris pitched the 8th on Wednesday and has been terrific all year.
2. Justin Wilson, Detroit Tigers — Francisco Rodriguez needed 33 pitches to complete a four-out save on Wednesday.
3. Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals — Wade Davis has only thrown 21 pitches over the last two days, but he has yet to appear on three straight days this season.

Edward Mujica to close in Oakland; new committee in Toronto

July 29, 2015

Oakland A’s – While still unconfirmed that he subscribes to Closer Monkey, A’s manager Bob Melvin made sure Edward Mujica will remain at the top of our hierarchy, saying before the game that Mujica will close following the Tyler Clippard trade. Mujica’s experience was the main factor in Melvin’s decision. Drew Pomeranz will remain in a set-up role, but Melvin also mentioned he can be used in multiple situations out of the bullpen.

Updated hierarchy: Mujica | Pomeranz | O’Flaherty.

Toronto Blue Jays – Prior to Tuesday’s tilt, manager John Gibbons stated that Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez will share the 8th and 9th innings, while newcomer LaTroy Hawkins and Bo Schultz will split the 6th and 7th innings. Hawkins made his Toronto debut on Tuesday with the Jays trailing, and since Toronto lost, it remains a mystery as to who will get the first crack at a save between Osuna and Sanchez.

Updated hierarchy: *Osuna | Sanchez | Hawkins.

* = closer-by-committee

Philadelphia Phillies — The Phillies finally dealt away Jonathan Papelbon yesterday, clearing the 9th inning for longtime heir apparent Kenneth Giles, who earned his first save of the season last night. Giles first turned heads at the major league level in 2014, when he posted what was one of the best seasons for a reliever in the game (1.18 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 64 Ks in 45.2 innings). He hasn’t been quite as dominant this year, but early-season nagging injuries may have played a role. We’re guessing he’s already owned if your league is even remotely deep, but if not, he’s a must add. We expect he’ll be the closer in Philadelphia for a good while. Luis Garcia got the 8th on Tuesday, and he’ll join Jeanmar Gomez and occasionally Jake Diekman as the bridge to Giles.

Updated hierarchy: Giles | Gomez | Garcia.

Washington Nationals — Jonathan Papelbon was officially traded to the Washington Nationals on Tuesday. This is bad news for Drew Storen owners, as Papelbon said he would only waive his no-trade clause if he was going to continue to close games on the other side. Papelbon, for all his general repulsiveness, is still a very good closer. With a strong Washington team behind him, he’s among the favorites to lead the league in saves the rest of the way. Storen, meanwhile, becomes one of the best middle relievers in baseball.

Updated hierarchy: Papelbon | Storen | Janssen.

Chicago Cubs – Jason Motte had a much better appearance yesterday than he did on Monday, but his clean inning of work was in a 7-2 loss. After the game, Joe Maddon was asked about Hector Rondon, and Maddon indicated that not only could Rondon win the job back, but that he anticipates Rondon will do just that. Maddon then praised Pedro Strop while acknowledging that Rafael Soriano “is still not on the top of his game.” What does this mean for Motte? We’ll keep him at the top of the heap for now, but Rondon is closing in fast.

Updated hierarchy: Motte | Rondon | Strop.

New York Mets – Tyler Clippard made his Mets debut on Tuesday and recorded the final three outs of a 4-0 win. His addition came at the perfect time for the Mets, as Jenrry Mejia was suspended for 162 games due to PED use. This means that Bobby Parnell will get the majority of the seventh-inning holds going forward.

Updated hierarchy: Familia | Clippard | Parnell. 

Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman pitched the 9th in a non-save situation after the Reds took a 4-0 lead in the top half of the frame. That’s normally not newsworthy, but Chapman may not be pitching for the Reds much longer. Both the Diamondbacks and the Giants are reportedly interested in Chapman, with Arizona’s GM confirming that the D-Backs are “going down that path.” If Chapman does move, J.J. Hoover is our most likely candidate to take over the closer’s role.

Hierarchy remains: Chapman | Hoover | Badenhop.

New York Yankees — Adam Warren picked up a three-inning save as the Yankees crushed the Rangers, 21-5. He does not factor into the Yankees’ late-inning plans.

Hierarchy remains: Miller | Betances | Wilson.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs – Jason Motte has pitched in back-to-back games, and as mentioned above, Rondon may win the job soon enough.
2. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays – Sanchez and Roberto Osuna will be sharing the 8th and 9th innings.

Edward Mujica, Drew Pomeranz among closer candidates after Tyler Clippard trade

July 27, 2015

Oakland A’s – Tyler Clippard has been traded to the Mets. As mentioned earlier, we believe Edward Mujica is probably the best bet for saves in Oakland at the moment. Drew Pomeranz could also factor if the A’s continue to reconsider shifting him to the rotation, and one A’s beat writer believes Eric O’Flaherty is a possibility. Check back to see if the A’s anoint someone specific.

Updated hierarchy: *Mujica | Pomeranz | O’Flaherty.
* = closer-by-committee

New York Mets – The Mets’ acquisition of Tyler Clippard won’t displace Jeurys Familia, who has been one of the best closers in the game this year. It will, however, cut into hold opportunities for Jenrry Mejia and Bobby Parnell, as Clippard figures to be the 8th inning guy going forward. On the off chance that the playoffs matter in your fantasy league, know that the Mets likely made this move because they know they won’t have Mejia should they make it to October — he’s barred from postseason play this year as part of his earlier PED suspension.

Updated hierarchy: Familia | Clippard | Mejia. 

Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: National League

July 16, 2015

Special Update (Part 2 of 2 — click here for the American League)

—–
Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – NL relievers
BUY+: Ken Giles.
BUY: Jeremy Jeffress, Daniel Hudson, Tommy Kahnle, LaTroy Hawkins, Arodys Vizcaino.
SELL: Francisco Rodriguez, Jim Johnson, Jonathan Papelbon, Brad Ziegler, John Axford.
SELL+: None.
—–

NL East

Atlanta Braves – The Braves are more likely to sell than buy at the deadline given their position in both the NL East and Wild Card standings, and with Jason Grilli now out for the season, closer Jim Johnson is now the only reliever that will be on the trade block for the Braves. If the Braves do ship Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino is likely to get the first crack at the closer’s role. BUY: Arodys Vizcaino, SELL: Jim Johnson.

Miami Marlins – AJ Ramos has lots of team control left, and at super-cheap entry level prices it is hard to imagine Miami moving him. The Marlins definitely won’t be buyers, since they are out of it now. BUY/SELL: None.

New York Mets – The Mets are just two games back of Washington in the division and a lone game back in the Wild Card race, so they probably would be buyers if their bullpen was a big need. It isn’t, however, since Jeurys Familia has been great, Bobby Parnell is a solid backup and Jenrry Mejia is back from suspension. BUY/SELL: None.

Philadelphia Phillies – Jonathan Papelbon is the obvious trade target in the league, since he’s been begging for a trade almost every day and is tired of waiting. He can block any trade, and he wants to go to a contender, so he’s not really a big sell candidate because he would probably be a closer wherever he went. The rumors are to the Cubs (probable closer), the Blue Jays (definite closer), the Rangers (probably would supplant Tolleson, as good as he’s been) and the Dodgers or Angels (maybe not over Jansen or Street). Ken Giles is the major beneficiary, and he has been really good this year. BUY+: Ken Giles, SELL: Jonathan Papelbon.

Washington Nationals – Drew Storen has been solid, but the rest of the bullpen has been less effective. The Nationals want to win this year, so it’s not out of the question that the Nats could go after a huge name to supplant Storen and knock him to the 8th inning, given them a really solid 1-2-3. However, it’s likely that Washington will go with Storen as its closer in the chase for the NL East title. BUY/SELL: None.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs definitely could be looking for bullpen help, specifically Jonathan Papelbon. Motte has been good since leading the committee, but they have been linked to Papelbon pretty heavily, and any good-to-great reliever would likely take over the 9th inning in Chicago. The Cubs are still playing for this year, so they could make moves, but they may be more concerned with starting pitching rather than the bullpen, where there are plenty of arms, including Rafael Soriano, who may join the roster after the All-Star break. BUY/SELL: None.

Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman is going to be expensive when his deal ends after this season, but Cincinnati doesn’t mind spending money despite calling themselves small market. The Reds likely won’t deal him, and if they did, he’d be the closer wherever he went. BUY/SELL: None.

Milwaukee Brewers – K-Rod is likely going to be on the move. He will probably close wherever he goes, but this opens the door for Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith. The problem is K-Rod’s backloaded contract, with a lot of money tied up for next year if anybody takes him. It takes two to make a trade, and with a year left on his deal, the Brewers may not have anywhere to move him. BUY: Jeremy Jeffress, SELL: Francisco Rodriguez.

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates lead the NL Wild Card by 5.5 games and Mark Melancon put together an All-Star campaign in the first half of the season. BUY/SELL: None.

St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal has been great for the Cardinals, though he was scratched from the All-Star roster due to arm soreness.The NL Central leaders won’t be looking for any bullpen help during the stretch drive. BUY/SELL: None.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks – Brad Ziegler is entrenched as the closer, but he only has a one-year club option on his deal. This is about as attractive as a trade contract can get. Not a true rental, but if you want it to be it can be. If Arizona sells (and a poor start after the All-Star break could be the tipping point), they would probably deal Ziegler. Daniel Hudson would be the beneficiary, with Enrique Burgos also potentially getting some chances. BUY: Daniel Hudson, SELL: Brad Ziegler.

Colorado Rockies – The Rockies are 8.5 games back in the Wild Card, and John Axford is an attractive trade target thanks to his friendly contract. However, the Rockies may want to keep him for the final year of his deal, despite Axford being eligible for a raise through arbitration. If Axford is dealt, Tommy Kahnle and LaTroy Hawkins are the two choices for manager Walt Weiss. BUY: Tommy Kahnle and LaTroy Hawkins, SELL: John Axford.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Kenley Jansen is too good to be replaced and the Dodgers are too good to deal him. BUY/SELL: None.

San Diego Padres – The Padres aren’t ready to blow up their team yet, though Craig Kimbrel has been linked to the Yankees by ESPN’s Buster Olney. If the Yankees indeed want to add Kimbrel to their already deep bullpen, it won’t be cheap, as Kimbrel is signd through 2017 at lots of money. If the Padres deal set-up man Joaquin Benoit, he won’t close wherever he goes. BUY/SELL: None.

San Francisco Giants – The defending champions are just two games out of the final Wild Card spot and won’t be hunting for another closer to replace an up-and-down Santiago Casilla. BUY/SELL: None.

 

Brad Boxberger the man in Tampa; Rafael Betancourt back in Colorado

June 27, 2015

Colorado Rockies — Rafael Betancourt was activated from the disabled list and immediately pitched the seventh inning in a close game. He will immediately return to high-leverage setup work in front of John Axford, and should soon be considered for vulture save work.

Updated hierarchy: Axford | Betancourt | Logan.

Tampa Bay Rays — After yet another conventional Jepsen-McGee-Boxberger use of the Tampa bullpen, we’re ready to pull the plug on the closer committee asterisk and acknowledge that Brad Boxberger has earned the job.

Updated hierarchy: Boxberger | McGee | Jepsen.

Houston Astros — Chad Qualls was placed on the disabled list Friday with a pinched nerve in his neck. Josh Fields has been excellent this year, with a 0.90 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in 22.1 IP.

Updated hierarchy: Gregerson | Neshek | Fields.

Seattle Mariners — With Mike Trout and Albert Pujols up in the eighth inning, Lloyd McClendon called on Carson Smith, leaving Fernando Rodney to face his first save situation since early June. Smith has done nothing wrong in his short term as head of Seattle’s closer committee, but we know McClendon is rooting for “proven closer” Rodney to earn his job back.

Hierarchy remains: *Smith | Rodney | Lowe.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Bobby Parnell, New York Mets — Jeurys Familia has pitched in two straight games since battling groin tightness.
2. Joba Chamberlain, Detroit Tigers — Joakim Soria has pitched in the last two games (41 total pitches).
3. Darren O’Day, Baltimore Orioles — Zach Britton has gone in three of four…
4. Tony Watson, Pittsburgh Pirates — …as has Mark Melancon.