2017 NL Central Preview

March 1, 2017

Chicago Cubs — The World Series champions replaced one All-Star closer with another, signing Wade Davis to replace Aroldis Chapman. Davis has been one of the best relievers in the league recently, and should see a lot of save chances for an excellent Cubs team. Hector Rondon will likely be the first option if Davis struggles or gets hurt. Rondon closed most of last year, but struggled late in the season. Although Rondon seems to have Joe Maddon’s confidence, the Cubs are spoiled for choice. Newly acquired Koji Uehara and returning setup man Pedro Strop will push Rondon for vulture saves, but perhaps the most intriguing option is C.J. Edwards. With a high-90s fastball and impressive stats in his brief career, Edwards could emerge as a viable late-inning option — but he will have to work hard to crack the stacked Cubs bullpen.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: Davis | Rondon | Strop.
Holds candidates: Uehara, Edwards, Strop, Justin Grimm.

Cincinnati Reds — The worst bullpen in MLB never did find a consistent closer last year, and Bryan Price has already announced that they’ll start out in a committee. Price also wants to use his relievers for multiple innings at a time in a reboot of an older strategy. If you’re up for a gamble, though, Raisel Iglesias is your best bet. Iglesias finished 2016 as the de facto closer and filled that role in his Cuban career as well. Another option is top offseason signee Drew Storen, who has stated openly that he wants the job. Converted starter Michael Lorenzen will also serve in the committee, while Tony Cingrani could see action based on matchups, but is a stronger candidate for LOOGY holds.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: *Iglesias | Storen | Lorenzen.
* = closer-by-committee
Holds candidates: Storen, Lorenzen, Cingrani, Blake Wood.

Milwaukee Brewers — The Brewers traded the bulk of their bullpen at the deadline last year, and brought in Neftali Feliz to fill the void this year. Since Milwaukee appears to be rebuilding, Feliz could be a prime trade target if the team struggles out of the gate. Corey Knebel was lined up for the job before Feliz was signed, and will serve as the primary setup man. Veteran Carlos Torres should take the seventh inning. The 34-year-old was versatile last year, and could be the most stable part of the Brewer bullpen.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: Feliz | Knebel | Torres.
Holds candidates: Knebel, Torres, Michael Blazek.

Pittsburgh Pirates — Tony Watson will close again in Pittsburgh, although he’ll make $400,000 less than he hoped after losing an arbitration hearing. Behind him will be Daniel Hudson and Felipe Rivero, both solid options to fill in if Watson needs a day off. Clint Hurdle tends to stick with particular roles for his relievers so, barring injury or a trade, you can expect stability for the Pirates bullpen — making Watson a bit more valuable than his stats might suggest.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: Watson | Hudson | Rivero.
Holds candidates: Hudson, Rivero, Antonio Bastardo, Jared Hughes.

St. Louis Cardinals — “Final Boss” Seung Hwan Oh has made the closing role his own, taking the job and running with it after he deposed the ineffective and injujured Trevor Rosenthal. Rosenthal is young and still has lights-out stuff, but may get a shot in the rotation. If he does, it will leave Kevin Siegrist competing with newcomer Brett Cecil for the setup role. Siegrist has been a reliable source of holds, and will probably take the eighth inning out of the gate — but he has also struggled with shoulder tightness early this spring. Cecil signed a four-year deal, so the Cardinals see him as a valuable asset going forward. Jonathan Broxton is also in the mix, but will have to regain his form before truly becoming a factor.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: Oh | Siegrist | Cecil.
Holds candidates: Siegrist, Cecil, Broxton, Matt Bowman.

Sean Doolittle ever more likely to return to closing in Oakland

September 17, 2016

Pittsburgh Pirates — Tony Watson converted his 13th save in the tenth inning of Friday’s game, but the real stories happened in front of him. Swingman Juan Nicasio set a club record with his 28th straight relief appearance with at least one strikeout, and Antonio Bastardo picked up the win with a clean ninth inning. Neftali Feliz hasn’t pitched since September 3, and though the team believes he’ll pitch again this season, it’s time to reward Bastardo for his legit work setting up Watson.

Updated hierarchy: Watson | Rivero | Bastardo.

Boston Red Sox — Koji Uehara pitched a clean eighth inning last night, his fifth straight scoreless appearance since returning from the DL. Over that time, Uehara has a 0.60 WHIP and has thrown 78% of his pitches for strikes. Koji seems to be returning to his eighth-inning role, and we’ll edge him in front of Brad Ziegler.

Updated hierarchy: Kimbrel | Uehara | Ziegler.

Oakland A’s — Ryan Madson’s seventh blown save of the season on Friday renews speculation that the team will return Sean Doolittle to the role next year, if not sooner.

Updated hierarchy: Madson | Doolittle | Axford.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Fernando Rodney, Miami Marlins — A.J. Ramos took the loss last night in the 12th inning, after throwing 30 pitches. He has pitched in three of the last four, so he is likely going to get a rest today.
2. Ryan Buchter/Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres — Brandon Maurer blew a save with 36 pitches on Friday. Buchter has pitched in two of three, so Quack might get another shot.
3. Brad Brach, Baltimore Orioles — Zach Britton has pitched in three of four and five of seven.

Nate Jones leads the league in blown saves

August 30, 2016

St. Louis Cardinals — Alex Reyes’s return to the rotation over the weekend has left a hole in the seventh inning for the Cardinals. Matt Bowman has been filling in there, but when he and Kevin Siegrist gave up a combined four runs last night, it was the recently promoted Miguel Socolovich who stopped the bleeding and set St. Louis up for a comeback win. It was an impressive outing for Socolovich, but not enough to crack the hierarchy yet.

Updated hierarchy: Oh | Siegrist | Bowman.

Chicago White Sox — The major league leader in blown saves is Nate Jones, who suffered his ninth on Monday night. It’s mostly been a matter of bad timing, however; his 0.93 WHIP and 3.25 FIP don’t point to any significant problems.

Hierarchy remains: Robertson | Jones | Jennings.

Toronto Blue Jays — Joe Biagini picked up a clean eighth-inning hold last night, his fifth of the season to go with a 2.28 ERA. Biagini still seems to be fourth in the Toronto bullpen, but we’ll be keeping an eye on the big righty down the stretch.

Hierarchy remains: Osuna | Grilli | Benoit.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Andrew Miller, Cleveland Indians — Cody Allen threw 37 pitches to get five outs on Monday.
2. Antonio Bastardo, Pittsburgh Pirates — The Pirates bullpen is running on fumes at this point. Tony Watson and Felipe Rivero have pitched on five of the last six days, and Neftali Feliz has gone on four of five (including a 29-pitch outing last night). Who’s left? We’re crazy enough to think it might be Bastardo, who has pitched surprisingly well since returning to Pittsburgh at the trade deadline.
3. Shawn Kelley, Washington Nationals — Mark Melancon has pitched in four of five.

Addison Reed getting important work for the surging Mets

September 12, 2015

New York Mets — With Hansel Robles in the Dominican Republic for his grandfather’s funeral, the Mets turned to former Diamondbacks closer Addison Reed in the seventh inning of a one-run game. Reed, who has a 0.00 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in seven appearances as a Met, struck out the side. Robles has been excellent, but Reed has experience that the team might value even more down the stretch.

Updated hierarchy: Familia | Clippard | Reed.

Kansas City Royals — Kelvin Herrera is pitching again, and he got a key strikeout to close out the seventh inning with a one-run lead on Friday. Although he later got touched for three earned runs in a ten-run eighth, it was due to an error and an infield single that set up a grand slam — and when Franklin Morales relieved Herrera, Morales pitched even worse. We think Herrera keeps the seventh inning role going forward.

Updated hierarchy: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Colorado Rockies — Justin Miller, who spent July and much of August getting high-leverage work for Colorado, has been moved back into that role since returning from Albuquerque. Miller pitched the seventh after Scott Oberg on Thursday, and entered a tight eighth on Friday night to strike out Nelson Cruz.

Updated hierarchy: Axford | Diaz | Miller.

Los Angeles Dodgers — Jim Johnson pitched the fourth down 10, which is enough to elevate Chris Hatcher past him in the Dodger pecking order.

Updated hierarchy: Jansen | Hatcher | Johnson.

Toronto Blue Jays — Brett Cecil set a Blue Jays record with his 26th consecutive scoreless appearance on Friday night.

Hierarchy remains: Osuna | Sanchez | Cecil.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Mike Dunn, Miami Marlins — A.J. Ramos has pitched in three of four (50 pitches).
2. Antonio Bastardo, Pittsburgh Pirates — Stay with us here. Mark Melancon has gone in three of four (57 pitches). Joakim Soria has pitched in three straight and Tony Watson has thrown 60 pitches in three days. Arquimedes Caminero has been used in four of five, and he gave up two hits in his brief Friday appearance. Bastardo got a vulture save back in July, so don’t be surprised to see him ring up another.
3. Tyler Clippard/Addison Reed, New York Mets — Terry Collins is riding Jeurys Familia hard in the playoff push, using him on four of five days (55 pitches). If Hansel Robles is back, he might get this chance, since both Clippard and Reed have been used a lot too.
4. Jairo Diaz, Colorado Rockies — John Axford has gone in two straight and threw 27 pitches yesterday.

Huston Street tweaks groin, may miss weekend series

July 9, 2015

Los Angeles Angels – Huston Street tweaked his groin Wednesday night on his second-to-last pitch of the evening, but doesn’t expect to need a DL stint. He may end up missing the upcoming four-game series with Seattle prior to the All-Star Break, but will be re-evaluated in Seattle. If Street does miss action this weekend, Joe Smith will take over as closer.

Hierarchy remains: Street | Smith | Gott.

Milwaukee Brewers — Jeremy Jeffress has appeared in the 8th inning in four straight games and has not given up a run in his last nine appearances. Although his numbers are still very solid, Will Smith gave up one little run his manager Craig Counsell got scared, so Counsell has sent him to live with his aunty and his uncle in the 7th inning for now.

Updated hierarchy: Rodriguez | Jeffress | Smith.

Los Angeles Dodgers — A day after getting a spot start, Yimi Garcia was optioned to Triple A. Manager Don Mattingly said it was to give Garcia a breather after the young righty has been used in 40 games this year. J.P. Howell has been the most effective reliever behind Jansen and Baez, so look for his role to expand with Garcia out of the mix.

Updated hierarchy: Jansen | Baez | Howell.

New York Yankees — Andrew Miller was activated from the DL and immediately saw his first save opportunity last night. Despite giving up a two-run home run, he fought back to escape a brief jam with two outs and remain perfect in save chances this year.

Hierarchy remains: Miller | Betances | Wilson.

Cleveland Indians — After being held out of a clear save opportunity on Tuesday due to a stiff back, Cody Allen was back in action on Wednesday and pitched a perfect 9th for his 17th save of the year. It looks like he will be fine going forward.

Hierarchy remains: Allen | Shaw | McAllister.

Pittsburgh Pirates — Mark Melancon was given the night off after pitching in three of the last four, which opened the door for…Antonio Bastardo? The one-time Phillies closer picked up his first save of the year after the Pirates scored three runs to break a tie in the bottom of the 8th. Bastardo was already warmed up to face the bottom of the Padres order, and remained in the game to pick up the save. In addition to Melancon pitching in 3 of 4, Tony Watson and Jared Hughes had both thrown back-to-back games. Bastardo doesn’t project to become a part of Clint Hurdle’s late-inning plans.

Hierarchy remains: Melancon | Watson | Hughes.

Chicago Cubs – As predicted in the Vulture (Blown) Save Watch, Pedro Strop was handed the ball to protect a one-run lead in the 9th. But it turns out the Cubs could have used Jason Motte, as Strop gave up the lead and took the loss.

Hierarchy remains: *Motte | Rondon | Strop.
* = closer-by-committee

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals — Greg Holland has thrown 39 pitches over the past two days, and the Royals don’t hesitate to throw Davis save opportunities.
2. Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels — As mentioned above, Huston Street may take time to rest this weekend after tweaking his groin.
3. Dellin Betances/Justin Wilson, New York Yankees — Andrew Miller needed 30 pitches to close the game last night, and may not be ready to pitch back-to-back games just yet. Betances and Wilson have both pitched in two straight, but Wilson has only thrown 19 pitches over those two days.
4. Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays — Right after kicking the asterisk, Roberto Osuna gave up a walk-off homer last night. He has pitched in two straight, but only threw two pitches last night. If he needs a night off, it may be the well-rested Brett Cecil instead of Steve Delabar, as Delabar worked two innings yesterday while Cecil tossed just one on Wednesday.