Under the Hood, April 15: Alexis Díaz’s command issues and Mason Miller’s breakout

This week’s Under the Hood will delve into two relievers on divergent paths based on early returns. These may not stick, but assessing how a closer performs early on helps set a baseline of expectations for the remainder of the season.

Alexis Díaz, Cincinnati Reds

Acknowledging it’s a small sample size, he owns a 1.50 WHIP with seven strikeouts against five walks while converting two of his first three save chances. His current 6.00 ERA accompanies a 4.71 SIERA, which hints at some bad luck, along with some skepticism. Fantasy players gave him a pass during the second half last year based on fatigue caused by heavy early season usage patterns.

However, as the sample size increases, can he recapture past form? Using K-BB percentage, WHIP, and strike percentage as a guide, here are his splits by month since the start of last year:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Vb2XD/1/

A pattern has emerged since August, with a steep decline in his K-BB percentage tethered to his reduced strike percentages. Creating more traffic during high-leverage events does not help a closer’s portfolio. Taking this a step further, issuing more walks has also made him throw more pitches per plate appearance early on this season:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Mvj73/4/

As this chart displays, he’s allowing more contact, generating a lower K-BB percentage, and throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone. Working behind in counts with reduced velocity can be a recipe for disaster:

Putting all of this together, here’s his rolling 10-game chart courtesy of Fangraphs illustrating his O-Swing (outside the strike zone), contact rate allowed, swinging strike percentage, and first-pitch (F-Strike%) since 2022:

One should not panic but should monitor Díaz’s results moving forward. It’s a fine line in save situations giving up increased contact with fewer whiffs and walk rates on the rise. Those with deep rosters or bench space may try stashing Fernando Cruz in case these issues continue.

Mason Miller, Oakland A’s

On the other end of the spectrum, Miller has been dominant as a closer in recent outings. He’s posted a 2.25 ERA with a 1.66 SIERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts against three walks (36.4 K-BB percentage) through his first eight innings. He’s also been elite in depressing contact, recording a minuscule 57.6 percent contact rate allowed while producing a robust 20.1 swinging strike percentage.

He owns a 19 percent swinging strike rate with his four-seam fastball and a 25.9 swinging strike percentage with the slider. He also leads the majors in pitches thrown over 101 m.p.h.:

He’s averaging 100.6 m.p.h. with his four-seam, which cannot be ignored. He’s in attack mode as a high-leverage force, owning a 66.9 strike percentage, which enables his dominant outings. Yes, the league will adjust, and he will run into some adversity. He also will not be pitching on consecutive days, which may depress his save total, but not his value from a fantasy perspective. Using my SGP (Standings Gain Points) formula, think of it as an in-season player rater, he ranks 19th among his peers entering game play on Monday, April 15.

As far as his early season rankings, among qualified relievers:

  • Tied for first in strikeouts with 15
  • Third in swinging strike percentage
  • Third in contact rate allowed
  • Tied for 14th in K-BB percentage
  • 16th in SIERA

His team situation may not be ideal, but he’s worth watching in the ninth inning alone based on his early returns. Injuries may make many feel he’s a sell-high candidate, but those who took a chance on him are enjoying “Miller time”.

Until next time, stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

  • Fangraphs.com
  • Baseball-Reference.com
  • BaseballSavant.com
  • BrooksBaseball.net

Monkey Bytes, April 15: Jansen holds on for a historic save, Miller strikes out the side, Uribe in the seventh, Game Recaps, and more

Sunday’s slate provided some chaotic moments, but it’s an expectation on a full slate of contests. For instance, Milwaukee used Abner Uribe in the seventh inning with a one-run lead. Tanner Scott suffered a blown save against Atlanta. Cleveland and the Yankees played a 10-inning contest with blown saves by each team. Because of the high volume of leverage events, the recaps will be split by their respective league.

American League (Game Recaps – April 14)

Baltimore Orioles – Hanging on for his third save, Craig Kimbrel navigated around two hits courtesy of three strikeouts in the top of the ninth, preserving a two-run win over Milwaukee. He threw 21 pitches (71.4 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (14.3 SwStr%). He’s posted a 0.50 WHIP with 11 strikeouts versus zero walks through his first six innings. Danny Coulombe recorded his second hold, striking out over two-thirds scoreless in the eighth, stranding a runner. Yennier Cano collected his second win, allowing two hits, an earned run on a solo home run, and striking out one during his 1.1 innings. Jacob Webb worked a scoreless sixth, yielding two hits.

Hierarchy remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Danny Coulombe

Boston Red Sox – Moving into a tie for fifth all-time in history, Kenley Jansen survived a traffic-infused ninth, recording his fourth save of the season, and 424th of his career. His outing began with a hit-by-pitch (Logan O’Hoppe), a single, and a walk, loading the bases. Following a sacrifice fly, he recorded consecutive strikeouts of Luis Rengifo and Mike Trout, preserving the one-run win. He threw 25 pitches (56 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (16 SwStr%). He owns a 1.59 WHIP with nine strikeouts versus eight walks over his first 5.2 innings. Justin Slaten notched his third hold, stranding two runners in the sixth, and logging 2.2 innings, giving up two hits and an earned run while striking out one. Chris Martin was unavailable with a sore left shoulder per Ian Browne of MLB.com.

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten

Cleveland Guardians – Benefiting from a walk-off rally in the bottom of the tenth, Tyler Beede collected his first win despite giving up two hits, two runs (one earned), and a walk in the top of the inning. Emmanuel Clase suffered his first blown save, allowing a one-out single, and an RBI two-out double by Anthony Volpe, scoring the game-tying run. He threw 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). Hunter Gaddis logged 1.1 scoreless frames, walking one and striking out two. Scott Barlow gave up a hit and recorded a strikeout during his two-thirds scoreless combined innings.

Updated hierarchy: Emmanuel Clase | Hunter Gaddis | Scott Barlow

Detroit Tigers – Capping a come-from-behind rally in the bottom of the eighth, Jason Foley recorded his fourth save with a scoreless ninth, issuing two, two-out walks before inducing a game-ending groundout by Ryan Jeffers. Foley threw 27 pitches (14 strikes – 51.9 Strike%) and induced only one whiff. After this outing, he owns a 1.00 WHIP with nine strikeouts versus four walks over 7.1 innings. Will Vest collected his first win, firing 1.2 clean frames, and stranding a runner in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Jason Foley | Shelby Miller | Andrew Chafin

Houston Astros – Pressed into action, Josh Hader retired his only batter-faced via strikeout, but with no runners on, it’s not a save opportunity. Instead, he preserved a three-run win over the Rangers.

Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu

Kansas City Royals – Suffering his first loss, Chris Stratton issued four walks, and gave up two earned runs in the bottom of the eighth. He allowed a run on an infield hit and walked in the go-ahead run. He threw 28 pitches (11 strikes – 39.3 Strike%) without a whiff. John Schreiber escaped with a scoreless seventh, allowing two hits and a walk.

Hierarchy remains: James McArthur | John Schreiber | Will Smith 

New York Yankees – Handed a two-run lead in the bottom of the tenth, Caleb Ferguson suffered his second loss and first blown save, allowing two hits and three runs (two earned), including a walk-off sacrifice fly by Andrés Giménez. Clay Holmes tossed a scoreless ninth, walking one and striking out one. He threw 20 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced two whiffs.

Hierarchy remains: Clay Holmes | Ian Hamilton | Caleb Ferguson

Oakland A’s – Another NSFW outing by Mason Miller. He locked down his third save by striking out the side against the Nationals. He threw 13 pitches (9 strikes – 69.2 Strike%) and generated three whiffs (23.1 SwStr%). He’s converted all three save chances and owns a 1.13 WHIP with 15 strikeouts against three walks over eight innings. Lucas Erceg notched his fourth hold, walking one during a scoreless eighth. Dany Jiménez gave up a hit in a scoreless seventh, securing his first hold.

Hierarchy remains: Mason Miller | Lucas Erceg | Dany Jiménez

Minnesota Twins – During the seventh inning, Brock Stewart secured his fourth hold, walking one in a scoreless outing. Making his first appearance of the season, Caleb Thielbar gave up three hits, including a solo home run by Javier Báez, and departed with two runners on with one out, getting credit for his first hold. Griffin Jax let both inherited runners score, allowing a two-RBI double by Mark Canha and then a go-ahead single by Spencer Torkelson. Jax suffered his first loss and first blown save, giving up two hits and an earned run while striking out one in two-thirds of the eighth.

Hierarchy remains: *Griffin Jax | *Brock Stewart | *Steven Okert

* =closer-by-committee

Tampa Bay Rays – Appearing as the “bulk follower”, Tyler Alexander worked six innings, giving up six hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out four.

Hierarchy remains: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

National League (Game Recaps – April 14)

Atlanta Braves – Slamming the door on his third save, Raisel Iglesias fired a clean ninth, striking out one while preserving a comeback win in Miami. He threw 13 pitches (8 strikes – 61.5 Strike%) and produced two whiffs (15.4 SwStr%). A.J. Minter collected his second win, striking out the side in the eighth on 10 pitches (90 Strike%) and generating six whiffs (60 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | A.J. Minter | Pierce Johnson

Chicago Cubs – Recording his third save, Adbert Alzolay worked a scoreless ninth, preserving a one-run win. He allowed a two-out single by Cal Raleigh but ended the game by picking off pinch-runner, Julio Rodríguez at first base. Alzolay threw 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%). He owns a 1.04 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus one walk through 6.2 innings. Hector Neris escaped with a scoreless eighth, inducing an inning-ending double play groundout with the bases loaded for his second hold. Mark Leiter Jr. fired a clean seventh for his second hold.

Hierarchy remains: Adbert Alzolay | Hector Neris | Mark Leiter Jr. 

Cincinnati Reds – Appearing in a non-save capacity, Alexis Díaz tossed a scoreless bottom of the ninth, walking one and striking out two, preserving a seven-run win over the White Sox. He threw 21 pitches (11 strikes – 52.4 Strike%) and produced two whiffs (9.5 SwStr%). He owns a 1.50 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus five walks over his first six innings. Emilio Pagán worked a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out one. Justin Wilson navigated around a hit and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless seventh, but let both inherited runners score. Lucas Sims was credited with his third hold, stranding two runners in the sixth, but struggled in the seventh, allowing a hit, two earned runs, and a walk during his one-third combined innings.

Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Lucas Sims (HLR) | Fernando Cruz 

Miami Marlins – Facing the top of Atlanta’s lineup, Tanner Scott allowed a lead-off single by Ronald Acuña Jr., retired Ozzie Albies via strikeout, and Austin Riley on a line-out to center. However, he issued a two-out walk to Matt Olson and gave up a two-strike, go-ahead three-run home run by Marcell Ozuna. His final line, two hits allowed, three earned runs, and a walk while striking out one, resulting in his third loss and first blown save. Andrew Nardi notched his third hold, firing a clean eighth, and striking out the side on 12 pitches (83.3 Strike%) with four whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). Anthony Bender was credited with his fourth hold despite giving up three hits and an earned run while striking out one in the seventh. Scott was one out from the save, but could not finish it. Nardi has been frustrating, but his underlying data suggests some bad luck, making him a potential sneaky add. Stay tuned.

Updated hierarchy (projected): *Tanner Scott | *Andrew Nardi | *Anthony Bender

*= closer-by-committee

Milwaukee Brewers – Taking over in the bottom of the seventh versus the 8-9-1 lineup pocket of Baltimore, protecting a one-run lead, Abner Uribe suffered his first loss and second blown save of the season. He allowed a lead-off single by Jordan Westburg, a single by Jackson Holliday, and a game-tying RBI single by Gunnar Henderson without recording an out. Uribe induced a double-play grounder by Adley Rutschman, but a second earned run scored in the process. He finished with three hits and two earned runs allowed while throwing 13 pitches (8 strikes – 61.5 Strike%) without a whiff. Hoby Milner gave up three hits, including a solo home run by Colton Cowser, and a walk in the eighth. Also, Trevor Megill could be activated later this week, which may send this leverage ladder into a committee moving forward.

Updated hierarchy: *Abner Uribe | *Joel Payamps | Elvis Peguero

*= closer-by-committee

New York Mets – Although he served up a solo home run (Vinnie Pasquantino), Edwin Díaz recorded his third save, closing out a one-run win over the Royals. He recorded one strikeout while throwing 14 pitches (9 strikes – 64.3 Strike%) and generated three whiffs (21.4 SwStr%). Brooks Raley garnered his first win, firing a clean eighth and striking out two. Adam Ottavino worked a clean seventh, striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Adam Ottavino | Brooks Raley

San Diego Padres – Closing out his fifth save, Robert Suarez tossed a scoreless bottom of the ninth, working around a one-out walk with a game-ending double play groundout. He threw 12 pitches (50 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s posted a 0.84 WHIP with eight strikeouts against four walks through his first 8.1 innings. Wandy Peralta notched his third hold, giving up a hit during a scoreless eighth. Yuki Matsui collected his second win, firing 1.1 clean frames and striking out one, throwing 15 pitches (11 strikes – 73.3 Strike%) with four whiffs (26.7 SwStr%). 

Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Yuki Matsui | Wandy Peralta

Washington Nationals – With the leverage ladder running on fumes, the “B-side” relievers could not hold a lead in Oakland. Derek Law allowed two hits, four earned runs, and two walks while striking out one over one-third of the sixth, resulting in his first loss. Jordan Weems suffered his first blown save, letting both inherited runners score, giving up a hit and a walk over his one-third of the sixth, appearing for a third straight contest.

Hierarchy remains: Kyle Finnegan | Hunter Harvey | Jordan Weems

Vulture Save Options for April 15

BOS: A morning game today may mean no Jansen, and Martin did not pitch on Sunday with a sore non-throwing shoulder, putting Greg Weissert on the vulture save radar.

CHC: Alzolay has pitched in two straight, so a multi-inning save could be attempted by Keegan Thompson or Drew Smyly.

DET: Depending on how the lineup pockets proceed, Shelby Miller or Andrew Chafin could receive the save chance later today.

MIN: A taxed leverage ladder may feature Steven Okert for the save versus Baltimore.

NYY: Ian Hamilton pitched two innings on Saturday, but was one of the only relievers off yesterday, putting him in line for a vulture save.

OAK: It appears the A’s will not use Miller on consecutive days, and Erceg has pitched in three of the last four, leaving Dany Jiménez as the likely recipient of a save chance today.

Vulture Save Options for April 16

ATL: If Iglesias pitches today, Pierce Johnson likely gets the save opportunity on Tuesday.

BAL: Look for Keegan Akin on Tuesday if the team uses Kimbrel on Monday, that would be two in a row for the veteran.

SDP: If the Padres use Suarez today, it could be Jhony Brito on Tuesday for a four or five out save chance.

Closer Monkey’s filthy sequence of the day, a repeat winner, Mason Miller striking out the side during his third save while facing the Nationals on Sunday, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja. He’s recorded a 36.4 K-BB percentage with a 20.1 swinging strike percentage, and allowing a 57.6 percent contact rate allowed. He also owns a 19 swinging strike percentage with his four-seam fastball and a 25.9 percent swinging strike rate with the slider. Health and durability remain a hurdle, but he’s a force in high-leverage.

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Monkey Bytes, April 14: Holmes records his sixth save, Phillips holds on for his fifth, Game Recaps, and more

Saturday’s 17-game slate only yielded seven saves, with two being a reliever’s first of the season. However, the high-leverage events of interest get covered in today’s Monkey Bytes, along with quick hit observations, and potential vulture options for the saves chasers in our community.

American League (Game Recaps from April 13)

Detroit Tigers – (Game 1): Suffering his first loss, Alex Lange had an eventful outing, walking the lead-off hitter, a sacrifice bunt loaded the bases, and he walked in the go-ahead run, scoring the “place” runner. He then recorded consecutive strikeouts before an error broke the game open, scoring three unearned runs. Jason Foley logged two innings, allowing a hit and an unearned run while striking out two. He threw 21 pitches (17 strikes – 81 Strike%) and inducing five whiffs (23.8 SwStr%). Shelby Miller was tagged with his first blown save, serving up a game-tying solo home run (Ryan Jeffers), and striking out two over 1.1 innings. Tyler Holton notched his second hold, retiring all five batters faced, one via strikeout. (Game 2): During an eventual loss, Joey Wentz logged 2.1 scoreless innings, giving up two hits and a walk while striking out four.

Hierarchy remains: Jason Foley | Shelby Miller | Andrew Chafin

New York Yankees – (Game 1): Securing his MLB-leading sixth save, Clay Holmes worked around a lead-off double with consecutive strikeouts and a game-ending ground-out, closing out a one-run win in Cleveland. He threw 14 pitches (9 strikes – 64.3 Strike%) and inducing two whiffs (14.3 SwStr%). He’s posted a 1.14 WHIP with five strikeouts versus zero walks through seven innings. Ian Hamilton notched his fourth hold, logging two scoreless frames and giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one. Caleb Ferguson took over in the sixth, letting both inherited runners score while walking one and striking out one during his outing.

Hierarchy remains: Clay Holmes | Ian Hamilton | Caleb Ferguson

Toronto Blue Jays – Nailing down his first save of the season, Yimi García fired a clean ninth, striking out the side while preserving a two-run win over Colorado. He threw 12 pitches (83.3 Strike%) and generated six whiffs (50 SwStr%). He owns a 0.47 WHIP with 10 strikeouts versus one walk over 6.1 innings. Chad Green secured his first hold, retiring the side in order during the eighth, striking out two. Tim Mayza worked a clean seventh, striking out one for his first hold. Bowden Francis collected his first win, allowing three hits, two earned runs, and two walks while striking out three over 2.1 innings as the “follower”.

Adjusted hierarchy: *Chad Green | *Yimi García | Génesis Cabrera

*= closer-by-committee

National League (Game Recaps from April 13)

Arizona Diamondbacks – Facing the 9-1-2 hitters, Kevin Ginkel recorded his third save, retiring the side in order. He threw nine pitches (5 strikes – 55.6 Strike%) and did not record a whiff. He owns a 1.09 WHIP with nine strikeouts versus two walks over 7.1 innings. Ryan Thompson gave up three hits and an earned run while striking out one in two-thirds of the eighth. Kyle Nelson worked 1.1 scoreless frames, yielding a hit, and securing his second hold.

Hierarchy remains: Kevin Ginkel | Ryan Thompson | Kyle Nelson

Chicago Cubs – Wrapping up his team’s 4-1 win, Adbert Alzolay notched his second save, allowing a two-out single and recording a strikeout during a scoreless ninth in Seattle. He threw 17 pitches (12 strikes – 70.6 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s posted a 1.05 WHIP with seven strikeouts against one walk through his first 6.2 innings. Hector Neris issued a walk and retired a batter in the eighth for his second hold. Yency Almonte tossed a clean, combined inning, striking out two while securing his second hold. Mark Leiter Jr. fired 1.1 clean frames, striking out one for his first hold.

Hierarchy remains: Adbert Alzolay | Hector Neris | Mark Leiter Jr. 

Los Angeles Dodgers – Despite dealing with some traffic in the ninth, Evan Phillips finished his fifth save with a scoreless outing. He allowed consecutive one-out singles by Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar, then induced a fielder’s choice groundout, and a game-ending groundout, preserving the 5-2 win. Phillips threw 23 pitches (17 strikes – 73.9 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (17.4 SwStr%). He’s recorded a 0.91 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus one walk over his first 7.2 innings. Daniel Hudson fired a clean eighth, striking out the side for his fourth hold.

Hierarchy remains: Evan Phillips | Daniel Hudson | Joe Kelly

Philadelphia Phillies – Benefiting from a walk-off rally, Jeff Hoffman collected his second win after firing a clean top of the ninth, keeping the score tied. He threw 17 pitches (11 strikes – 64.7 Strike%) without a whiff. He owns a 1.09 WHIP with eight strikeouts versus three walks over 7.1 innings. José Alvarado tossed a clean eighth, striking out one on 10 pitches (80 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (30 SwStr%). Gregory Soto navigated around a hit and a walk for a scoreless seventh. Matt Strahm logged two clean frames, recording five strikeouts, throwing 36 pitches (25 strikes – 69.4 Strike%), and inducing five whiffs (13.8 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | Gregory Soto

* = closer-by-committee

Washington Nationals – Locking down his fifth save, Kyle Finnegan fired a clean ninth and recorded one strikeout. He threw 18 pitches (83.3 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). He’s posted a 1.74 WHIP with six strikeouts versus five walks through his first 6.1 inning. Hunter Harvey tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit and striking out two for his fifth hold. Jordan Weems stranded his only inherited runner while striking out his only batter-faced, securing his third hold.

Hierarchy remains: Kyle Finnegan | Hunter Harvey | Jordan Weems

Quick Hits (High-leverage events of interest from April 13)

Boston Red Sox – Entering in the fifth, Greg Weissert collected his first win, logging two scoreless frames, allowing a hit, and striking out three.

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten

Chicago White Sox – During a non-save appearance, Michael Kopech faced the 5-6-7 lineup pocket, issuing a one-out walk, but erased him on a pick-off for a caught stealing, then induced a game-ending ground-out. He threw 12 pitches (50 Strike%) while inducing one whiff. He owns a 1.20 WHIP with 12 strikeouts against six walks over 8.1 innings. Jordan Leasure fired a clean eighth, striking out two on 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (25 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | Steven Wilson | Jordan Leasure

Cincinnati Reds – Taking over in the sixth, Fernando Cruz stranded an inherited runner and retired all four batters faced, three via strikeout. He threw 12 pitches (83.3 Strike%) and generated six whiffs (50 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Lucas Sims (HLR) | Fernando Cruz 

Houston Astros – After escaping a self-inflicted bases-loaded situation for a scoreless seventh inning, Bryan Abreu collected his first win courtesy of his team scoring seven runs in the bottom of the frame. He allowed two hits and a walk while striking out one on 22 pitches (50 Strike%) with two whiffs.

Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu

Kansas City Royals – In a non-save outing, James McArthur navigated around two singles for a scoreless bottom of the ninth, recording two strikeouts. He threw 19 pitches (13 strikes – 68.4 Strike%) and produced two whiffs (10.5 SwStr%). He owns a 1.57 WHIP with nine strikeouts versus one walk through 7.2 innings.

Hierarchy remains: James McArthur | John Schreiber | Will Smith 

Los Angeles Angels – During his rehab outing, Robert Stephenson only faced one batter, issuing a walk, then left the game with the trainer. No bueño.

Miami Marlins –  It was not a save appearance, but fantasy players will happily accept a scoreless outing by Tanner Scott. He wrapped up a 5-1 win against Atlanta, throwing 12 pitches (83.3 Strike%) and inducing two whiffs (16.7 SwStr%) facing the 4-5-6 lineup pocket. This lowered his WHIP to 1.65 and he’s recorded six strikeouts versus nine walks through his first 6.2 innings. Anthony Bender fired a clean eighth, striking out two on 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and producing two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%) against the top of the batting order.

Updated hierarchy: Tanner Scott | Anthony Bender | Andrew Nardi

Milwaukee Brewers – Elvis Peguero collected his third win, tossing 1.2 scoreless innings, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out two. He took over in the fourth inning.

Hierarchy remains: Abner Uribe | Joel Payamps | Elvis Peguero

Minnesota Twins – (Game 1): Brock Stewart tossed a scoreless ninth, issuing a walk and recording a strikeout. Griffin Jax faced the 3-4-5 lineup pocket and retired them in order on 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) without a whiff. Steven Okert fired a clean seventh, striking out two. (Game 2): Finishing off the sweep, Cole Sands fired 2.1 clean innings, recording three strikeouts for his first save of the season, and second of his career. He threw 28 pitches (19 strikes – 67.9 Strike%) and induced three whiffs.

Hierarchy remains: *Griffin Jax | *Brock Stewart | *Steven Okert

* =closer-by-committee

Pittsburgh Pirates – Aroldis Chapman struggled with his command, suffering his first blown save, giving up a hit, an unearned run, and two walks over one-third of an inning. He threw 17 pitches (6 strikes – 35.3 Strike%) and produced one whiff in an eventual loss.

Hierarchy remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Hunter Stratton

Toronto Blue Jays – During Buffalo’s game on Saturday, Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson made their second rehab outings. Swanson gave up two hits and an earned run while striking out one over his two-thirds of an inning, throwing 18 pitches (11 strikes – 61.1 Strike%) with three whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). Romano issued two walks and recorded a strikeout over his two-thirds of an inning on 18 pitches (7 strikes – 38.9 Strike%) inducing two whiffs (11.1 SwStr%).

Vulture Save Options for Sunday, April 14

DET: Representing one of the only relievers not called upon during Saturday’s doubleheader, Andrew Chafin could receive the save chance on Sunday.

LAD: Both Evan Phillips and Daniel Hudson have pitched in consecutive games, which puts Joe Kelly in line for the save chance later today.

WSH: With its high-leverage triumvirate all pitching on consecutive days this weekend, Dylan Floro could benefit from their collective rest day, representing the most likely pivot for a save opportunity, if presented last today.

Vulture Save Options for Monday, April 15

CHC: If Alzolay pitches on Sunday it will be consecutive outings placing Drew Smyly or Keegan Thompson into a multi-inning save chance on Monday.

KCR: McArthur pitched on Saturday, so if he’s used on Sunday, the team preferred Chris Stratton for the last ancillary save chance, he would be the play in this situation on Monday.

MIA: Dependent on Scott being used on Sunday, but if he makes an appearance on consecutive days, Bryan Hoeing could receive the save chance on Monday.

PHI: Once again, it’s all based on usage patterns, Alvarado and Hoffman pitched on Saturday, if they both make appearances on Sunday, this may open the door for an Orion Kerkering save chance on Monday. He will be activated this afternoon.

Closer Monkey’s filthy pitch of the day, the split-fingered fastball by Fernando Cruz, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja. Through his first 6.2 innings, he owns a robust 26.8 swinging strike percentage with a 1.54 SIERA, and a 0.60 WHIP. He’s also produced a 47.7 percent swinging strike rate with his split-fingered fastball. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

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Monkey Bytes, April 13: Leclerc working in “low” leverage, Muñoz as the “HLR”, Game Recaps, and Injury Updates

Full Friday slates can be overwhelming, but most of the high-leverage drama occurred during the last portion of contests. There are updated hierarchies fueled by role changes, walk-offs, and more, covered in today’s Monkey Bytes.

Texas Rangers – Although his outing was not crisp, Kirby Yates closed out a four-run win in Houston, working around a walk while striking out one. He threw 20 pitches (55 Strike%) and produced two whiffs. This represents his first game-finished and he owns a 0.20 WHIP with five strikeouts versus one walk over his first five innings, David Robertson retired the side in order facing the top of the lineup, throwing 13 pitches. José Leclerc worked a scoreless sixth, navigating around a hit and a walk while striking out two on 25 pitches (60 Strike%) while inducing six whiffs (24 SwStr%).

It’s one thing seeing Leclerc enter in the sixth with a nine-run lead, but as Jeff Wilson reported on “X” after the game, he will be operating in low-leverage situations temporarily per Bruce Bochy. Because of this:

Updated hierarchy: *Kirby Yates | *David Robertson | José Leclerc

* = closer-by-committee

Seattle Mariners – Despite serving up a solo home run (Michael Busch) in the top of the ninth, Ryne Stanek secured his second save, finishing off a 4-2 win over the Cubs. He threw 21 pitches (13 strikes – 61.9 Strike%) and produced one whiff. Andrés Muñoz operated as the HLR (highest-leveraged reliever), firing a clean eighth while matching up with the 2-3-4 lineup pocket. He recorded two strikeouts while throwing 10 pitches (70 Strike%) and generated three whiffs (30 SwStr%) for his second hold. This shift in the bullpen structure may not affect Muñoz on Saturday, Stanek’s pitched in three of the four last days and may be unavailable in today’s game, however the leverage hierarchy has been changed:

Updated hierarchy: *Andrés Muñoz | *Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

*= closer-by-committee

Oakland A’s – Benefiting from a walk-off rally, Michael Kelly collected his second win after retiring the side in order in the top of the tenth, courtesy of a baserunning snafu by the Nationals. Dany Jiménez suffered his first blown save, allowing a game-tying home run (Jesse Winker) in the top of the ninth among his two hits, and recorded two strikeouts. Lucas Erceg tossed a clean ninth, securing his third hold. Those with Mason Miller may be frustrated, but it’s apparent the team will not use him on consecutive days at this time, which makes sense given his past injury issues, plan accordingly.

Updated hierarchy: Mason Miller | Lucas Erceg | Dany Jiménez

Tampa Bay Rays – Navigating around a lead-off walk, Pete Fairbanks retired the next three batters on a groundout and two shallow fly-outs, preserving a one-run while converting his third save. He threw 18 pitches (50 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He owns an 8:6 K:BB with a 2.20 WHIP over his first five innings. Jason Adam retired the side in order while securing his fifth hold. Colin Poche notched his fourth hold, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out two in a scoreless seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

National League (Game Recaps from April 11)

Los Angeles Dodgers – Appearing for the third time in four days, Alex Vesia suffered his second loss, allowing a two-out RBI single by Jackson Merrill in the top of the 11th, scoring the place runner. Ryan Yarbrough tossed a scoreless tenth, walking one. Evan Phillips worked a scoreless ninth, yielding a hit. He’s posted a 0.75 WHIP with seven strikeouts against one walk through his first 6.2 innings. Joe Kelly fired a clean eighth, striking out two. Ryan Brasier was tagged with his second blown save, giving up two hits, including a game-tying two-run home run by Fernando Tatis Jr. among his three earned runs, and walking one in the seventh. Daniel Hudson gave up a solo home run (Jake Cronenworth) and recorded a strikeout in the sixth.

Hierarchy remains: Evan Phillips | Daniel Hudson | Ryan Brasier

Pittsburgh Pirates – A much-needed bounce-back outing by David Bednar, firing a clean ninth and striking out one for his second save of the season. He took over against the 7-8-9 lineup pocket, throwing 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) and producing two whiffs (12.5 SwStr%). He owns a 1.31 WHIP with seven strikeouts against one walk over 5.1 innings. Aroldis Chapman inherited two runners in the eighth, and let one score after issuing two walks. He also recorded two outs, one via strikeout, for his fifth hold on 16 pitches (7 strikes – 43.8 Strike%) with one whiff.

Hierarchy remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Hunter Stratton

San Diego Padres –  Recording his first win, Robert Suarez stranded two runners in the bottom of the tenth, then retired the side in order in the 11th, preserving a one-run over the Dodgers. He threw 15 pitches (11 strikes – 73.3 Strike%) without a whiff. He owns a 0.82 WHIP with eight strikeouts against three walks over 6.1 innings. Enyel De Los Santos walked one and struck out one over two-thirds scoreless in the tenth. Tom Cosgrove retired both batters faced in the ninth, striking out one. Wandy Peralta logged 1.1 clean frames. Yuki Matsui tossed a scoreless seventh, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Yuki Matsui | Wandy Peralta

St. Louis Cardinals – Locking down his fifth save, Ryan Helsley fired a clean bottom of the ninth, striking out two. He threw 11 pitches (81.8 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (27.3 SwStr%). He owns a 1.13 WHIP with nine strikeouts versus one walk through eight innings. Andrew Kittredge notched his sixth hold, retiring the side in order while striking out two. JoJo Romero worked a clean seventh, striking out one for his fifth hold. Giovanny Gallegos collected his fifth win despite letting his only inherited runner score on a home run by Eugenio Suárez. Gallegos gave up a hit, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out two during his 1.1 innings of relief. Because of his recent usage patterns, it’s caused a shift in the hierarchy:

Updated hierarchy: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

Washington Nationals – Suffering his second loss, Kyle Finnegan issued an intentional walk, but allowed a walk-off, single by Lawrence Butler, scoring the “place” runner in walk-off fashion in the bottom of the tenth. He only recorded one out in this outing and owns a 2.06 WHIP with five strikeouts over 5.1 innings. Hunter Harvey fired a clean bottom of the ninth, striking out two on 20 pitches (80 Strike%) and producing three whiffs (15 SwStr%). He’s posted a 0.79 WHIP with 11 strikeouts against one walk through 6.1 innings. It’s still early, but those with bench space should stash Harvey for future saves if he was dropped in your league. 

Hierarchy remains: Kyle Finnegan | Hunter Harvey | Jordan Weems

Quick Hits and Injury Updates

Arizona Diamondbacks – Good news regarding Paul Sewald, he will throw a bullpen today per Jesse Friedman.

Chicago White Sox – Pedro Grifol commented about preferring using Michael Kopech for one-inning outings but his team’s struggles have not allowed it.

Colorado Rockies – Anyone holding out hope for Daniel Bard this season can move on, he will undergo surgery on his right flexor tendon, as reported by Thomas Harding of MLB.com.

Kansas City Royals – Appearing with his team down by four, Will Smith allowed four hits, including a solo home run by Pete Alonso, and recorded a strikeout in the bottom of the eighth. He threw 21 pitches (16 strikes – 76.2 Strike%) and produced two whiffs. He owns 3.00 WHIP with five strikeouts through his first five innings. Jordan Lyles fired a clean seventh on eight pitches.

Updated hierarchy: James McArthur | John Schreiber | Will Smith 

Miami Marlins – Taking over a bases-loaded situation in the seventh, Andrew Nardi did not record an out, giving up a walk, forcing in a runner, then a two-RBI single by Marcell Ozuna, and another walk before being removed. As a result, he had a hit, two earned runs, and two walks on his ledger, snapping his modest three-game scoreless streak.

Minnesota Twins – Closer Jhoan Durán threw his first bullpen session, and per Do-Hyoung Park, felt good afterward. His next one will take place on Tuesday, barring a setback.

Seattle Mariners – Matt Brash could begin a rehab assignment in the next “7-to-10 days”, per Ryan Divish on “X”.

Toronto Blue Jays – Both Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson will make their second rehab outings later today for Buffalo with eyes on returning next week, reported by Shi Davidi.

Vulture Save Options for April 13

CLE: With a doubleheader on tap, one of Cade Smith or Tyler Beede could receive an ancillary save chance.

DET: Also playing a doubleheader, Tyler Holton, Shelby Miller, and Alex Lange could be in play for a save.

MIN: A recurring theme, but doubleheaders provide ancillary save opportunities, and for the Twins, there could be another for Steven Okert or Brock Stewart depending on what inning Griffin Jax appears in with a lead.

NYY: Last, but not least among teams in a doubleheader today, Caleb Ferguson could receive an ancillary save chance or Ian Hamilton in a multi-inning outing if they can sweep the Guardians.

TBR: In a more traditional vulture save chance, Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam have pitched in three of the last four days, placing Colin Poche in line for a save chance today, if provided.

Vulture Saves for April 14

BAL: If Craig Kimbrel records a save on Saturday, and Yennier Cano does not pitch, plan on Cano for Sunday’s save based on heavy usage patterns recently. If both pitch, Keegan Akin could be in play.

OAK: On a bit of a heater, if Mason Miller pitches on Saturday, Erceg could be a sneaky play over Jiménez for the save chance on Sunday.

PIT: If Bednar and Chapman pitch today, Hunter Stratton likely receives the save chance on Sunday, though Jose Hernandez could face a left-handed pocket in the ninth.

SEA: Based on recent patterns, Muñoz should receive the save chance today, and with Stanek needing a day off, he would be back in play Sunday.

Closer Monkey’s filthy sequence of the day features Yuki Matsui versus Mookie Betts, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

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Monkey Bytes, April 12: Miller lights up the radar and our hearts, Free baseball in Boston, What to Watch For, and more

Thursday’s small slate became smaller courtesy of two postponements, however, there were a couple high-leverage events of interest worth exploring, along with some bonus content with eyes on the weekend.

Oakland A’s – Slamming the door on his second save, Mason Miller faced the first three hitters in the Rangers lineup, retiring them in order, including two strikeouts, preserving a 1-0 win. He threw 16 pitches (13 strikes – 81.3 Strike%) and generated four whiffs (25 SwStr%). He owns a 1.29 WHIP with 12 strikeouts versus three walks through his first seven innings. Lucas Erceg secured his second hold, firing a clean eighth, and striking out one. Austin Adams stranded his only inherited runner while retiring both batters faced in the seventh.

Updated hierarchy: Mason Miller | Lucas Erceg | Austin Adams

Remaining with Miller for a moment, this outing was not only impressive because of the radar readings, but he dominated the defending World Champions in it. This season, he’s thrown 70 four-seam fastballs with 46 of them hitting 100 m.p.h. or higher (65.7 percent) per Statcast data. From yesterday’s outing, he averaged 102.3 m.p.h.:

Referencing Brooks Baseball, he’s produced an 18.6 swinging strike percentage with his four-seam fastball and a 24.1 percent swinging strike rate with his slider. It’s a small sample size, but he owns a 12:3 K:BB (30 K-BB percentage) with a 19.8 swinging strike percentage, 66.7 strike percentage, and a 58.3 percent contact rate allowed. He’s one of seven qualified relievers with a K-BB percentage greater than 20, a swinging strike percentage of 15 or better, a strike percentage of at least 65 percent, and a contact rate allowed of 65 percent or lower. Health remains the last hurdle, but as a closer, he’s been terrific.

During the MASN broadcast, they announced last night’s game was the second in history during which two relievers with at least 400 saves appeared in the same contest. Kenley Jansen (423 career saves) and Craig Kimbrel (419 career saves) turned in scoreless outings in Thursday’s extra-inning game in Boston, joining Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner, who recorded the first such instance in a regular season game. Which segues into last night’s results.

Baltimore Orioles – Pitching on consecutive days, Craig Kimbrel collected his second win, retiring the side in order and striking out one in the bottom of the ninth. He threw 15 pitches (46.7 Strike%) without recording a whiff. He’s posted a 0.20 WHIP with eight strikeouts versus zero walks over five innings. Mike Baumann finished the contest, giving up an RBI double, and scoring the “place” runner during the tenth. Yennier Cano only faced one batter in the eighth but did not return for the ninth, perhaps with an eye on a save chance tomorrow. Danny Coloumbe suffered his first blown save, serving up a game-tying, pinch-hit home run over two-thirds of the eighth. Jacob Webb fired 1.1 clean frames, striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Danny Coulombe

Boston Red Sox – Another rough outing for Isaiah Campbell, suffering his first loss, giving up four hits, including two home runs, six runs (five earned), and a walk, while striking out one in the top of the tenth. Kenley Jansen issued two walks and recorded a strikeout during his two-thirds of the ninth. He threw 19 pitches (7 strikes – 36.8 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s been hitless and scoreless through his first five outings but has a 7:7 K:BB over 4.2 innings. Greg Weissert was tagged with his first blown save, allowing an inherited runner to score while serving up a go-ahead home run by Anthony Santander. Joely Rodríguez gave up an unearned run and struck out one over two-thirds of the eighth for his third hold. Justin Slaten worked two scoreless frames, walking one and striking out one. He’s retired 23 of his last 24 batters faced.

Updated hierarchy: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten

What to Watch For (Weekend Edition)

Chicago White Sox – Will Pedro Grifol take a page from Mark Kotsay and transition his best reliever into a more traditional one-inning role during save situations? Michael Kopech has converted two saves this year, both requiring two-inning outings, which require, on average, two days off afterward.

Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | Steven Wilson | Jordan Leasure

Kansas City Royals – Riding the wave of momentum, James McArthur has recorded his team’s last two saves, will this continue? One more linear pathway toward him in the ninth will remove the Royals’ current hierarchy classification.

Hierarchy remains: *James McArthur | *Will Smith | John Schreiber

* = closer-by-committee

Miami Marlins – Representing the last team with a save this season, Tanner Scott held on for his first during a traffic-infused 1.2-inning appearance against the Yankees during which he issued three walks. Command remains an issue for the southpaw this season, illustrated by his -10 K-BB percentage and 52.8 strike percentage. If this continues, Andrew Nardi will be worth tracking for future saves in this leverage ladder.

Hierarchy remains: Tanner Scott | Andrew Nardi | Anthony Bender

Philadelphia Phillies – Although it feels like I beat this phrase to death, the “floating closer” concept deployed by Rob Thomson relies on matching up his relievers by lineup pockets in the late innings, not a traditional pathway toward a save. José Alvarado leads the team with two saves, but Orion Kerkering will arrive this weekend, adding a high-octane option to the bullpen. He’s been hitting 98 m.p.h. during his rehab outings and the arsenal for being the “closer” of the future. Will he be used immediately in leverage events, pushing Jeff Hoffman into a “fireman” role earlier in the games? For now:

Hierarchy remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | *Gregory Soto

* = closer-by-committee

Pittsburgh Pirates – Standing by his man, Derek Shelton said in a live radio interview on Thursday that if a save chance arose that evening, he would use David Bednar. It makes sense, he’s been terrific since arriving via trade from San Diego. Bednar’s underlying data suggests positive migration toward the mean. He owns a 12.46 ERA with a 2.01 SIERA and a 21.7 K-BB percentage. He deserves better outcomes, here’s hoping it happens for “The Renegade“.

Hierarchy remains (for now): David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Hunter Stratton

Texas Rangers – Bruce Bochy supported his closer, José Leclerc, saying it’s too early for a change in leverage roles. However, Leclerc converted one of two save opportunities but owns a 2.40 WHIP, -7.1 K-BB percentage, 56.6 strike percentage, and a career-low 8.8 swinging strike percentage. It’s a limited sample, but pressure mounts quickly for a struggling closer with his fanbase. Monitor this closely.

Hierarchy remains (for now): José Leclerc | Kirby Yates | David Robertson

Toronto Blue Jays – Both Erik Swanson (0.2 IP, 2 hits, one earned run, 70.6 strike percentage) and Jordan Romano (0.1 IP, hit, two walks, 44.4 strike percentage) made rehab outings for Buffalo on Thursday. Rushing their returns does not make sense, so they likely make at least one more appearance in the minors. Because this will transition the leverage ladder soon:

Current hierarchy: Chad Green | Yimi García | Génesis Cabrera

Projected hierarchy (*once they return): Jordan Romano | Erik Swanson | Yimi García (HLR)

Vulture Save Option on April 12

BAL: As mentioned above, Kimbrel has pitched in two straight games placing Yennier Cano in line for the save chance today—those streaming for holds, Keegan Akin.

Vulture Save Options for April 13

DET: With a doubleheader on tap, Shelby Miller, Andrew Chafin, or Alex Lange could receive an ancillary save chance. The Tigers will also play 14 games over the next 13 days, putting relievers like Tyler Holton on the radar for multi-inning outings, vulture wins, or an ancillary save.

MIN: If Brock Stewart pitches today, it will mark three outings in four days. Steven Okert recorded the last save and may be in play versus the Tigers’ lineup pocket against Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter if they hit in the ninth.

Closer Monkey’s filthy sequence of the day goes to, no surprise, Mason Miller, with video courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

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