Monkey Bytes, March 28: Burning question(s) for all 30 teams

It’s the calm before the storm, with Opening Day upon us. Every team starts this season with hopes and aspirations, along with the fantasy community. Because there are no results worth sharing, going through each team’s high-leverage questions before games count makes sense. These will be split by league. Enjoy.

American League

Baltimore Orioles

With Félix Bautista out for the season, can the revamped leverage ladder preserve leads for Craig Kimbrel?

The good news, Dillon Tate and Danny Coulombe turned in strong spring outings. The bad news, Cionel Pérez, and Jacob Webb did not. A key for the bullpen will be Yennier Cano not suffering a sophomore slump.

Boston Red Sox

Can Kenley Jansen stay healthy and boost his cutter velocity once games count? Who will he be traded to?

Most forget Jansen converted 29 of 33 save chances last year, though this snapped his streak of recording at least 30 saves over a full 162-game season since 2014. He and Chris Martin will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the year, so it’s a matter of when, not if each gets moved ahead of the trade deadline. This brings up the last question, will Liam Hendriks secure a save in 2024?

Chicago White Sox

Who receives the first save chance? Can a reliever emerge with the primary save share?

No matter who the fantasy community prefers gets save chances, it’s the manager’s decision. After showing strong results in spring appearances as a reliever, will Pedro Grifol deploy Michael Kopech as his closer?

Cleveland Guardians

Will Emmanuel Clase post a third straight year with at least 40 saves?

His 110 saves since the start of 2021 ranks first among all relievers. Yes, he suffered 12 blown saves last year. Can his slider perform more like 2022 (27.5 swinging strike percentage) versus last year’s results (16.4 percent swinging strike rate)? If yes, he’s as stable as they come for saves.

Detroit Tigers

Will Alex Lange throw enough first-pitch strikes and rein in his command unlocking a career year? Or, will he lose his grip on the preferred save share in his hierarchy?

Lange finished spring with an encouraging 62.5 strike percentage, which would represent a career-best in the category. It’s a very limited sample, but a point of emphasis in his off-season training. He’s a different pitcher when ahead in counts, which unlocks the door to his devastating change-up (18.7 percent swinging strike rate) and curve (23.4 swinging strike percentage). If he struggles, Jason Foley or Shelby Miller could move atop the bullpen hierarchy, but time will tell if it’s necessary.

Houston Astros

Beat writers for the Astros call Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu a dominant triumvirate, can they overcome a weak leverage bridge or will they wear down as the season ensues?

It’s been encouraging seeing Hader throw more sliders, which could increase his strikeout rate this season. However, Abreu finished the spring with a bloated 2.63 WHIP and seven strikeouts versus six walks over 5.1 innings. He’s also sitting a m.p.h. below his normal average fastball velocity. If he’s pitching through an injury or the struggles linger into the season, this already shaky leverage ladder gets even shakier.

Kansas City Royals

How long does Will Smith remain atop the hierarchy?

Adding veteran southpaw, and three-time World Champion Smith on the roster provides veteran leadership in the bullpen. But he struggled in the second half and was not a factor during his team’s postseason run. It feels like he’s a stopgap in the ninth, not a solution. This situation feels like the Cubs last year, meaning it may only be a matter of time until James McArthur takes over as the closer by June. Time will tell.

Los Angeles Angels

When does Robert Stephenson make his debut? Can Carlos Estévez remain atop the hierarchy until the trade deadline?

Riding the wave of a dominant second half with the Rays last year, Stephenson signed a three-year deal with the Angels as the closer of the future. He did not appear in a spring contest while dealing with shoulder discomfort in camp. He’s throwing on the side, but there’s no timeline for his team debut. Estévez was dominant in the first half last year, then regression fueled by fatigue harpooned his results after the All-Star break. He begins the year as the closer, but was two-to-four m.p.h. down with his fastball velocity this spring. Stay tuned.

Minnesota Twins

Who gets the first save chance this year? Will Griffin Jax be the team’s most valuable reliever this year?

Acknowledging most spring numbers may not matter, one cannot overlook Jax’s robust 12:0 K:BB through 7.2 scoreless frames with a 0.39 WHIP and a 30.2 swinging strike percentage. He may not be the interim closer and operate as the HLR, but his potential breakout season will help keep Jhoan Durán healthy when he returns and his role as the closer. Brock Stewart remains on the radar in deeper formats since he may accrue ancillary saves with Durán on the injured list.

New York Yankees

Which reliever replaces Michael King and who becomes the primary set-up reliever for Clay Holmes?

Early in the spring, it seemed like Ian Hamilton would be the natural replacement for King in this leverage ladder. He can log multiple-inning outings with strikeout upside or take on an opponent’s toughest lineup pocket before the ninth. However, with Tommy Kahnle on the injured list, Hamilton may be the eighth-inning cog and not cede the role. It’s also been reported Jonathan Loásiga will man a multi-inning relief role, then receive two days off before his next outing. If things go sideways, Holmes, Kahnle, and Loáisiga will be free agents at the end of the season. This ride may get bumpy, especially if the starting pitchers do not work deep into games with Gerrit Cole sidelined.

Oakland A’s

Will Mark Kotsay use Mason Miller as the closer?

This one’s a slam-dunk question since it determines the fantasy ceiling for the most talented pitcher on this team’s roster. Multiple beat writers have insinuated this will be his role, but until he receives early save chances, it causes apprehension for fantasy players. However, Miller posted a 14:2 K:BB (40 K-BB percentage) with a 57.1 ground-ball percentage, and 25.8 swinging strike percentage this spring. Facing major league lineups will be tougher, but his stuff should play as a high-leverage reliever. Health remains his final hurdle to clear.

Seattle Mariners

Can the Opening Day relievers be effective until Matt Brash and Gregory Santos return?

One of the most popular speculative relievers was Brash in the preseason, but his helium was tempered by an elbow issue. He’s at least three weeks away from appearing with the Mariners, and Santos may not be ready until mid-May. In the interim, the team needs strong performances from Ryne Stanek, Gabe Speier, Trent Thornton, Tayler Saucedo, and Austin Voth. Feeling lucky or will Andrés Muñoz be sleepless in Seattle?

Tampa Bay Rays

Will Pete Fairbanks follow up last year’s career bests with more innings and saves this year?

In 2023, Fairbanks set career highs in appearances (49), innings (45.1), strikeouts (68), and saves (25). His breakout dispelled the myth about the team using multiple relievers for saves rather than a primary save share. Will he remain healthy in 2024?

Texas Rangers

Does José Leclerc remain the closer for the entirety of 2024? Will Texas produce a better save percentage this season?

For Leclerc, it’s all about velocity and command. Throwing strikes unleashes his slider for strikeouts. Working behind in counts results in traffic, which represents tightrope walks during high-leverage events. Despite winning the World Series, this bullpen only converted 47.6 percent of its save chances. Less than optimal.

Toronto Blue Jays

Who gets the first save this season? When will Jordan Romano (elbow) and Erik Swanson (forearm) return?

Late injury news during spring training creates anxiety for fantasy players. Although the team maintains the MRIs for its top leverage options were clean, both will open the season on the injured list. Yimi García and Chad Green project as the most likely options for saves in their stead. But, this will be a different leverage ladder with Wes Parsons and Nate Pearson active instead of Romano and Swanson.

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks

Will this bullpen withstand the loss of Paul Sewald (oblique) early on?

Even though manager Torey Lovullo refused to name a replacement for Sewald, fantasy players will focus on Kevin Ginkel. He recorded six wins, two saves, a 0.96 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts over his last 27.2 innings last year. He’s capable of filling in for Sewald, but getting him the ball in the ninth may be a challenge at times unless Ryne Nelson, Scott McGough, and Miguel Castro step up.

Atlanta Braves

Does Raisel Iglesias remain healthy all season?

Despite missing time last year with a shoulder injury, Iglesias notched 33 saves in only 58 appearances. During his time in Atlanta, he owns a 98:20 K:BB (23.6 K-BB percentage), a 1.07 WHIP, and secured 34 saves across 82 innings.

Chicago Cubs

How well does Adbert Alzolay do in his second season atop the hierarchy?

It was a tale of two halves for Alzolay during his first full season as a reliever. In the first half, he posted a 24.8 K-BB percentage, a 2.80 SIERA, and a 0.92 WHIP. After the All-Star break, his K-BB percentage slipped to 16.3 percent with a 3.82 SIERA, and 1.18 WHIP. He also missed time with forearm tightness in September. His injury issues from the past should be ignored, but he’s still the best option for saves in this leverage ladder.

Cincinnati Reds

Will the real Alexis Díaz please stand up, please stand up?

Through September 15 last year, he owned a 2.10 ERA with 36 saves after 66 appearances. After this, his results cratered though fatigue was a contributing factor. But, his K-BB percentage declined by the month down the stretch. He also turned in a rough spring, so he enters the season under the microscope of many fantasy players.

Colorado Rockies

Who leads this team in saves at the end of the year?

After a spring competition for the closer role, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post wrote the team has “penciled” in Justin Lawrence as the primary save share but speculated Tyler Kinley could also factor in early save chances. Meanwhile, Daniel Bard continues his rehab for a return in May. This role may change hands multiple times this year.

Los Angeles Dodgers

How do the veterans hold up under the pitch clock rules in 2024?

Since most relievers adapted to the rules changes enacted last year, Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson did not, missing the majority of 2023. They will be factors in this leverage ladder but may wear down or require injured list stints throughout the season. Brusdar Graterol opens the year on it with shoulder and hip soreness. If this unit loses veteran relievers, the team will be very active ahead of the trade deadline. Thankfully, Evan Phillips remains one of the most under appreciated relievers in baseball. For a second straight season he logged at least 60 appearances, produced 60 strikeouts over 60-plus innings, and owned a WHIP below one. He’s the only qualified reliever to do this over the last two years.

Miami Marlins

Can Tanner Scott carry over his command gains? Will he be traded ahead of the deadline? If yes, who replaces him as the primary save share?

Scott became the second reliever in team history with at least 100 strikeouts last year and tied for the most multiple-strikeout outings in the National League with 32. From August first-on, owned a 5-1 record while converting 10 of 12 save opportunities with a 33:3 K:BB (29.7 K-BB percentage) over 27.1 innings, a 0.70 WHIP, 0.99 ERA, 2.16 SIERA, 72 Strike percentage, and 18.2 swinging strike rate. After a rough spring, can he maintain some of these gains? He’s an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, so which reliever(s) pitch well this year could be replacements in waiting for saves in August. Stay tuned.

Milwaukee Brewers

Who gets the first save chance? The second? The third?

See a theme here? What seemed like one of the easiest leverage ladders to predict became one of the toughest when Devin Williams was diagnosed with three stress fractures in his back. Add in a new manager who suggested a match-up-based approach in the high-leverage innings and it’s chaos for fantasy players. Now we await if it’s Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe, or Trevor Megill receiving the save chances, but it could be all three.

New York Mets

Will the trumpets returning be enough for this leverage ladder?

Displaying no signs of rust after missing 2023, Edwin Díaz will be the team’s closer and remains one of the best at his craft. However, his leverage bridge may be shaky at times, and this will affect his save total if they do not pitch well.

Philadelphia Phillies

Does any reliever represent the primary save share or will the “floating closer” concept remain in effect?

This topic was covered in detail in yesterday’s committee post, so it will not be repeated. Some asked about Orion Kerkering as well. He will be a leverage factor but will open the year on the injured list after missing most of training camp because of illness. Which sets his clock back for earning a larger role in this bullpen.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Is David Bednar ready for Opening Day? Should the velocity readings by Aroldis Chapman in his last spring outing be a concern? Who sets up for these two?

Will two spring outings be enough for Bednar? His velocity was on track, but his command was a bit spotty. Chapman was four m.p.h. his normal velocity against the Yankees, hopefully, this will be a blip. The biggest worry remains the bridge relievers getting the team to save chances.

San Diego Padres

Will “Big Game” Bobby remain healthy? How will Yuki hold up?

With two games under their belt, and Robert Suarez already tied for the major league lead in saves, he’s missed time in each of the two previous seasons, will he be available all year? Yuki Matsui has impressed, but can he handle the demands of an MLB season and the travel? Most players from the NPB wear down during their transitional season.

San Francisco Giants

Does Camilo Doval find trust in his slider again?

Doval went through a rough patch last August, blowing four straight save chances. During this time, he almost stopped throwing his slider, which did not resurface until Gabe Kapler was fired. Perhaps a new voice at the helm, and being on the precipice of his Age-26 season fuels growth in his strikeout percentage.

St. Louis Cardinals

Can Ryan Helsley make it through a full season? Will his velocity spike during a regular season outing?

Usually fantasy players worry about the usage patterns for Helsely by his manager, but ahead of Opening Day, it’s more about his velocities this spring:

In an interview, the reliever said working with lower velocity was by design with eyes on remaining healthy throughout 2024. We will find out soon.

Washington Nationals

Will Kyle Finnegan fend off Hunter Harvey and remain the primary save share in 2024?

Finnegan opened 2023 as the closer, lost his grip on the role, regained it after the All-Star break, and never looked back while recording a career-best 28 saves. Despite this, many prefer Harvey as the closer of the future for this franchise. This may be an inevitability, but once the lights go on, it’s still Finnegan atop the hierarchy, for now.

Thanks for stopping by Closer Monkey on Opening Day. Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Monkey Bytes, March 27; Part 2: Sorting through projected bullpen committees

Fantasy players hate the words, closer-by-committee. Although baseball’s leverage usage patterns evolve with advanced analytics maximizing match-ups, clarity in a bullpen makes life easier. Because of injuries or manager preferences, there are five potential unsettled hierarchies, with Colorado a possibility. With this in mind, this post will provide insight into how save situations may unfold, but until managers deploy their leverage structure during a game, it’s purely speculative.

Chicago White Sox

As previously mentioned, Pedro Grifol has remained steadfast in his stance he does not have a closer unless Dennis Eckersley walks into the clubhouse. It’s funny he referenced this dominant reliever in particular since he was more effective as a reliever than a starter. During his career, Eckersley owned a 9.7 K-BB percentage with a 1.214 WHIP. As a reliever, his results improved vastly, posting a 20.8 K-BB percentage with a 0.998 WHIP. Now check out the split results by role for Michael Kopech:

With more seasoning as a one-inning reliever, there’s a pathway for success by him, especially if he’s closing out contests. Veterans John Brebbia and Steven Wilson, along with rookie Jordan Leasure may be factors in high-leverage events, but if one from this group could take the role and run with it, Kopech’s arsenal represents the best bet.

Milwaukee Brewers

Losing a dominant closer for up to three months does not help a team hoping it can contend why retooling on the fly, but the Brewers will do their best. Adding in a new manager does not make things any easier, especially when his comments hint toward a match-up-based leverage plan for the late innings. He’s mentioned three relievers: Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill. They all pitched together in the same bullpen last year during the second half and here are their respective numbers from this timeframe:

  • Payamps (2H): 4-4 record, 11 holds, 2 blown saves, 28.1 IP, 30:9 K:BB (17.6 K-BB percentage), 1.16 WHIP, 3.61 SIERA, 74.8 contact rate allowed, 62.7 strike percentage
  • Uribe (2H): 1-0 record, 1 saves, 8 holds, 1 blown save, 28.2 IP, 37:20 K:BB (14.3 K-BB percentage), 1.19 WHIP, 4.17 SIERA, 69.5 contact rate allowed, 59.2 strike percentage
  • Megill (2H): 4 holds, 1 blown save, 18 IP, 29:4 K:BB (34.7 K-BB percentage), 1.17 WHIP, 2.00 SIERA, 70.4 contact rate allowed, 65.9 strike percentage

Using the win probability tab from Fangraphs, here’s how these relievers fared in the metric, obviously, a higher WPA equals better results as a reliever in the highest-leveraged moments:

Because we cannot account for, nor predict how Pat Murphy will handle save chances, it’s a roll of the dice. Payamps could be the HLR (highest-leveraged reliever), especially since he’s adept at stranding inherited runners. Uribe’s the closer of the future, but can he fill the role right now? It’s largely dependent on his command. Megill had tremendous results in this small sample, can he carry this level of production into 2024? More questions than answers right now. It’s very possible Megill receives early save chances, especially if Payamps enters in the seventh or eighth inning versus an opponent’s toughest lineup pocket. Uribe may have the most upside, but also the most risk. Feeling lucky? Adding fuel to the fire, Dave Adler listed his thoughts in MLB.com’s Opening Day lineups.

Minnesota Twins

One cannot question the dominant spring turned in by Griffin Jax. He recorded 7.2 scoreless frames in eight appearances with 12 strikeouts and zero walks (42.9 K-BB percentage). His minuscule 0.39 WHIP and robust 30.2 swinging strike percentage also jump off the page. However, he may not receive the primary save share with Jhoan Durán (moderate oblique strain) on the injured list because Jax represents the best reliever in a bullpen rife with injuries. It’s been intimated by more than one source Brock Stewart could receive ancillary save chances if his teammate’s needed against the heart of an opposing team’s lineup in the eighth inning. Rocco Baldelli will play for the win, not reserve a reliever for the ninth in this situation.

With this in mind, here are their leverage results from last year, though Stewart only logged 27.2 innings:

Image Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tXTS0/1/

There’s nothing wrong with teams that added Jax when the news broke, just do not be frustrated if he records a hold in some games based on how the lineup pockets progress in the high-leverage innings.

Philadelphia Phillies

At this time last year, Craig Kimbrel was a late-round stash who provided a tremendous return on investment. This also happened because José Alvarado spent two stints on the injured list. Manager Rob Thomson runs what he affectionately calls a “floating closer” concept, which does not rely on one person as the closer. He prefers keeping his leverage arms rested and matches up by lineup pockets in the last three innings. Because of his handedness, there will be one, maybe two, right-handed relievers getting save chances early on: Jeff Hoffman and/or Seranthony Domínguez.

But, all of this depends on the roles given by Thomson, sometimes on a daily basis. This chart displays the leverage results from the last three years, though he took over midseason in 2022:

Taking this a step further, Domínguez was a fantasy darling last preseason, but started 2023 with reduced velocity and was surpassed by Kimbrel in the bullpen hierarchy. However, he’s been much better this spring with his velocity intact. This chart displays the leverage results for Alvarado and Hoffman last year, along with Domínguez’s from 2022:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nth2m/1/

It will be curious how Thomson uses his deep and pliable bullpen. Although the fantasy community prefers Alvarado getting the primary save share, what percentage of his team’s saves will he record this season? Stay tuned.

Toronto Blue Jays

Last, but not least, the Blue Jays finally announced they will place Jordan Romano (elbow) and Erik Swanson (forearm) on the injured list before Opening Day. This provides Yimi García and Chad Green with save opportunities at the onset of the season. Through eight spring outings, García posted a 9:2 K:BB (20.6 K-BB percentage) with a 0.67 WHIP, and a 17.9 swinging strike percentage. He also recorded three saves in 2023, along with 19 holds. Green missed most of 2023, but owned an 11:1 K:BB (28.6 K-BB percentage) with a 1.57 WHIP over 7.2 innings. He had some rough early appearances, but was scoreless in three of his last four contests. If forced to hedge, García likely gets the majority of save chances, but time will tell.

Thankfully, many of these answers will emerge during the first two weeks of the season. We appreciate your support of Closer Monkey. Buckle in, things may get bumpy in leverage events soon.

Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Monkey Bytes, March 27: Jansen clears his last hurdle, and the final spring tune-ups for four other closers

A light game schedule on Tuesday, and all teams off on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s “domestic” Opening Day makes this a quick post. However, more content will be provided before the season begins. One more sleep until baseball, life is good.

Boston Red Sox Assuaging the fears of his manager, Kenley Jansen fired a clean seventh, striking out one. He threw 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) and generated three whiffs (27.3 SwStr%) against three Texs substitutes for starters in the lineup. After four spring outings, he owned a 0.82 WHIP with five strikeouts and now walks over 3.2 innings. Chris Martin retired the side in order in the eighth, recording a strikeout. With its two veterans atop the leverage ladder, things calm down for the Red Sox in high-leverage events, for now. Alex Cora spoke briefly about his two veteran relievers in this post by Drew Davison for MLB.com.

Opening Day Hierarchy: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski

Los Angeles Angels – Making his final spring outing, Carlos Estévez tossed a scoreless ninth, yielding a hit and striking out one. He threw 17 pitches (12 strikes – 70.6 Strike%) with two whiffs (11.8 SwStr%). He logged eight spring appearances, posting a 0.75 WHIP with six strikeouts and zero walks through eight innings. José Cisnero worked a scoreless eighth, allowing a hit and striking out one. Luis García turned in a scoreless seventh, yielding a hit and striking out two.

Opening Day Hierarchy: Carlos Estévez | Matt Moore | José Cisnero

San Francisco Giants –  It can be tough making an appearance in an exhibition with Opening Day looming. Camilo Doval gave up two hits and an earned run while striking out in his last outing this spring. He threw 22 pitches (63.6 Strike%) with three whiffs (13.6 SwStr%). Through six games, he owned a 1.17 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus two walks over six innings. Taylor Rogers and his twin, Tyler, each retired both batters faced, one via strikeout.

Opening Day Hierarchy: Camilo Doval | Taylor Rogers | Tyler Rogers

St. Louis Cardinals – During his final preparations for the regular season, Ryan Helsley fired a clean bottom of the ninth in a non-save situation, recording one strikeout. He wraps his preseason with a 1.11 WHIP and 11 strikeouts versus six walks. JoJo Romero retired the side in order in the eighth, striking out one. Andrew Kittredge allowed a solo home run and produced three strikeouts in the seventh. Giovanny Gallegos worked a scoreless sixth, giving up a hit and striking out two.

Opening Day Hierarchy: Ryan Helsley | Giovanny Gallegos | JoJo Romero

Texas Rangers – Making his final spring training appearance, José Leclerc served up a solo home run, issued a walk, and registered one strikeout. He threw 19 pitches (12 strikes – 63.2 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (15.8 SwStr%). He ends the spring with a 1.69 WHIP and 8:4 K:BB over 5.1 innings.

Opening Day Hierarchy: José Leclerc | David Robertson | Josh Sborz

Closer Monkey’s filthy outing of the day goes to Mason Miller, although it happened on Tuesday night, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja. There are no guarantees regarding his role but in Martín Gallegos’ Athletics 2024 season preview, this note appeared:

Links will be provided throughout the season, but our premium subscribers get blurbs like Miller’s above directly attached, Statcast charts, and deeper insight in their daily emails. Treat yourself to this service for a one-time $20 donation to the site.

Until next time, stay safe and be well.

Monkey Bytes, March 26: Paul Sewald suffers an oblique strain, Twins leverage plan, Toronto injury update, Game Recaps, and more

Arizona Diamondbacks – Not the news anyone wants to see, Paul Sewald suffered a Grade 2 left oblique strain and will open the year on the injured list per Nick Piecoro in this tweet on “X”. In a follow-up note, manager Torey Lovullo did not want to name an interim closer, but Piecoro intimated Ginkel should receive the first save opportunity of the season, which we agree with. Last year, he went 9-1 while converting four of six save chances and recorded eight holds. Through 60 appearances, he logged 65.1 innings with a 70:23 K:BB (18.5 K-BB%), 0.98 WHIP, and a 12.9 swinging strike percentage. Over his last 27 outings, he won six of seven decisions with 36 strikeouts over 27.2 innings. Here’s hoping he carries over last year’s gains into the start of the season. 

Projected Hierarchy: Kevin Ginkel | Ryan Thompson | Scott McGough

Minnesota Twins – In a column highlighting how Griffin Jax has improved his arsenal, Do-Hyoung Kim of MLB.com also shared Rocco Baldelli’s leverage plans with Jhoan Durán sidelined at the onset of the season. Jax will be a high-leverage option, but will share save chances with Brock Stewart, which forces an adjustment of our projected hierarchy. Plan on Jax being the HLR (highest-leveraged reliever), facing the toughest lineup pocket in the eighth or ninth inning, no exclusively deployed in the ninth. If this happens, Stewart would receive the save chance. Plan accordingly. 

Adjusted Hierarchy: *Griffin Jax | *Brock Stewart | Steven Okert

Toronto Blue Jays – Although there’s no confirmation in this tweet by Shi Davidi on “X”, manager John Scheider acknowledges “it’s reasonable to say Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson will begin the season on the IL”. Hopefully, more news emerges, but if they do not throw bullpens until next week, it’s time the hierarchy shifts ahead of Opening Day. 

Projected Hierarchy: *Yimi García | *Chad Green | Génesis Cabrera

Colorado Rockies – In Patrick Saunders’ bullpen preview for the Denver Post, he wrote Justin Lawrence is “penciled” in as the closer with Tyler Kinley projected as the primary set-up reliever in the eighth inning role. It’s been a camp competition for the ninth inning, but as it stands, plan on this adjustment in the leverage ladder unless Bud Black suggests otherwise. 

Adjusted Hierarchy: Justin Lawrence | Tyler Kinley | Jake Bird

Chicago White Sox – Remaining guarded in his comments about having a closer, Pedro Grifol says the team will enter the year without one being named in this tweet shared by Scott Merkin of MLB.com. In Grifol’s words, “We’re attacking leverage. Somebody takes it on, somebody takes it on.”. During the team’s scrimmage with its Triple-A affiliate, Michael Kopech pitched for Charlotte, retiring his teammates in order, including a strikeout of Gavin Sheets. Unofficially, he finishes the spring with four scoreless appearances as a reliever with a 0.25 WHIP and 4:1 K:BB. Hopefully he get a chance to take the closer role on soon. 

Projected Hierarchy: *Michael Kopech | *John Brebbia | Jordan Leasure

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 25)

Atlanta Braves -With the regular season drawing nearer, Raisel Iglesias fired a much-needed clean outing, striking out one in the sixth. He finishes spring with a 1.83 WHIP while racking up 13 strikeouts versus four walks over 7.2 innings. As a veteran, getting through the spring healthy represents a win.

Houston Astros – Playing it’s Triple-A affiliate in an exhibition, Ryan Pressly suffered a blown save, giving up two hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out one. Josh Hader fired a clean sixth, striking out the side. He threw 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%). This does not count toward his spring totals, but he recorded a 1.24 WHIP with five strikeouts over 5.2 innings through six outings. Biggest thing from this outing, his slider usage, courtesy of Statcast:

Last year, Hader used his sinker over seventy percent of the time with San Diego last year, this could increase his strikeout percentage in 2024.

New York Yankees – Entering in the sixth inning on Monday, Clay Holmes secured his fourth hold with a scoreless outing, giving up a hit and striking out one. He threw 17 pitches (11 strikes – 64.7 Strike%) with two whiffs (11.8 SwStr%). Through seven outings, he’s posted a 1.41 WHIP with seven strikeouts against one walk.

Oakland A’s – Dominating Giants hitters, Mason Miller fired a clean top of the ninth, striking out the side on 13 pitches (69.2 Strike%) while producing six whiffs (46.2 SwStr%). Five of his pitches exceeded 100 m.p.h. and he finished spring with a 0.91 WHIP with 14 strikeouts over 7.2 innings. Lucas Erceg navigated around two hits and a walk while striking out one for a scoreless eighth. Dany Jiménez retired the side in order in the seventh, as did Zach Jackson in the sixth.

San Diego Padres – Turning in a labored tune-up, Robert Suarez allowed a hit, an earned run, and a walk while striking out two in the top of the ninth versus Seattle. He threw 24 pitches (50 Strike%) inducing three whiffs (12.5 SwStr%). Yuki Matsui tossed a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out three on 16 pitches (75 Strike%) with four whiffs (25 SwStr%). Jhony Brito fired a clean seventh, striking out two.

Seattle Mariners – In his final spring tuneup, Andrés Muñoz turned in a scoreless sixth, allowing a two-out single by Ha-Seong Kim. Muñoz threw 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with one whiff. He’s made seven appearances and posted a 1.05 WHIP with six strikeouts versus zero walks through 6.2 innings. Ryan Divish also provided two injury updates. First, Matt Brash threw 20 pitches and will throw again in a few days during his build-up phase per this tweet. Gregory Santos will undergo an MRI on March, and if it’s clean, he will resume his throwing program

Tampa Bay Rays – Collecting his second win this spring, Pete Fairbanks fired a clean eighth, striking out one on 15 pitches (60 Strike%) with three whiffs (20 SwStr%). He’s made six appearances and posted a 0.88 WHIP with eight strikeouts versus two walks over 5.2 innings. Colin Poche only retired one batter and walked two in the seventh. Jason Adam worked a scoreless sixth, giving up a hit and striking out three.

Closer Monkey’s filthy pitch of the day goes to Brent Honeywell‘s screwball, note his catcher’s reaction, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

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Until next time, stay safe and be well. We appreciate you stopping by.

Updated MLB Closer Depth Chart

Closer1st in line2nd in lineUpdatedCloser1st in line2nd in lineUpdated
BALKimbrelCanoTate3/28/24ATLIglesiasMinterJohnson3/28/24
BOSJansenMartinWinckowski3/28/24MIAScottNardiBender3/28/24
NYYHolmesHamiltonLoáisiga3/28/24NYME.DíazOttavinoRaley3/28/24
TBFairbanksAdamPoche3/28/24PHI*Alvarado*Hoffman*Domínguez3/28/24
TOR*García*Green*Cabrera3/28/24WASFinneganHarveyBarnes3/28/24
        
CHW*Kopech*BrebbiaLeasure3/28/24CHCAlzolayMerryweatherNeris3/28/24
CLEClaseBarlowSandlin3/28/24CINAl.DíazSimsPagán3/28/24
DET*Lange*FoleyMiller3/28/24MIL*Payamps*Uribe*Megill3/28/24
KCSmithSchreiberMcArthur3/28/24PITBednarChapmanBorucki3/28/24
MIN*Jax*StewartOkert3/28/24STLHelsleyGallegosRomero3/28/24
        
HOUHaderPresslyAbreu3/28/24ARIGinkelThompsonMcGough3/28/24
LAAEstévezMooreGarcía3/28/24COLLawrenceKinleyBird3/28/24
OAK*Miller*Jiménez*Erceg3/28/24LADPhillipsKellyHudson3/28/24
SEAMuñozStanekSpeier3/28/24SDSuarezMatsuiPeralta3/28/24
TEXLeclercRobertsonSborz3/28/24SFDovalTy.RogersTa.Rogers3/28/24

* = closer-by-committee