This week, we’ll take a deep dive into the bullpens behind Fernando Rodney and Hector Rondon — the two closers most likely to be out of a job by this time next week.
Seattle Mariners – At post time Saturday evening, Fernando Rodney is still the closer in Seattle. We’re not sure how many of baseball’s 29 other managers would have stuck with him this long, but Rodney has a close ally in Lloyd McClendon, who is doggedly clinging to the veteran as his stopper despite a 6.94 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. His peripherals don’t suggest he’s getting terribly unlucky (5.43 FIP), so it seems unlikely that Rodney turns this around, and McClendon will have to pull the plug at some point.
But his recent comments on Carson Smith being a little kid or something make it a little uncertain about who Rodney’s handcuff truly is. And all kidding aside, some of the advanced stats actually make things even murkier. Despite what seems like a large gap in ERA and WHIP over 2012-2013 closer Tom Wilhelmsen (Smith: 1.13 ERA, 0.71 WHIP; Wilhelmsen: 2.63 ERA, 1.61 WHIP), the head-to-head FIP actually favors the Bartender (Smith: 2.33 FIP; Wilhelmsen 1.91 FIP). It’s a small sample size, especially for Wilhelmsen, who was called up after the season started and has only pitched 13.1 innings so far, and Smith has the edge in a few other advanced statistical areas. But if McClendon is determined to go with an experienced reliever in the 9th inning, Wilhelmsen doesn’t seem like an inexcusable choice. In deep leagues, he might be worth an add.
Chicago Cubs – Lately, Hector Rondon hasn’t been the dominant force he was to begin the year, when he posted a 1.50 ERA with 12 Ks and only 1 unintentional walk in his first dozen outings. But he hasn’t been that bad either, having only allowed runs in two of his previous ten outings prior to today. So it was a bit surprising to see Joe Maddon yank him after just one hitter on Saturday afternoon, allowing Pedro Strop to finish the 9th inning. After the game, Maddon said that he’d look to use Rondon in other spots from time to time, but that he was still the closer for now.
At the moment, this is a two-horse race, as it seems unlikely that anyone other than Strop will get save chances if Rondon is indeed demoted. But Jason Motte has a greater track record of success in the 9th inning, and has been decent enough to potentially get a look if Strop falters. Justin Grimm, meanwhile, has posted more than a 15.68 K/9 ratio thus far and has been getting higher-leverage opportunities lately. Neil Ramirez was electric last year, but is still probably a while away from returning.
